Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints Expert Pick 12/10/23

Carolina Panthers (1-12 SU, 3-8-1 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (5-7 SU, 2-9-1 ATS)
NFL Football Week 14

Date/Time: Sunday, December 10th, 2023. 1:00 PM (EST)

Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA

TV: CBS

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: CAR +4.5/NO -4.5
Moneyline: CAR +190/NO -220
Total: 37.5

Just a few weeks ago, the New Orleans Saints stood alone on top of the NFC South Division despite a mere 5-4 SU record. However, the Saints have now dropped three straight games following last week’s 33-28 loss to the Detroit Lions despite an improved performance on the offensive side of the football. As a result, the Saints have fallen behind in the NFC South and now trail the Atlanta Falcons by a single game in what has become the ugliest divisional race in recent memory. With all things considered, the Saints will have a great opportunity to improve their divisional position when they host the helpless Carolina Panthers at Caesars Superdome.

The Panthers will visit New Orleans fresh on the heels of a 21-18 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Despite showing some strong competitiveness against the Buccaneers following the firing of Head Coach Frank Reich, the Buccaneers fell to 1-12 SU on the season. However, the Panthers did display some improvement on the offensive side of the football. While QB Bryce Young continued to struggle, RB Chubba Hubbard carried the ball 25 times for 104 yards and two touchdowns against one of the better run defenses in the league. If the Panthers can replicate that success on the ground in the weeks moving forward, it should make things easier for rookie QB Bryce Young and the Panthers’ struggling defense. For Sunday’s road trip to New Orleans, the Panthers will be listed as 4.5-point underdogs.

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Analysis

While the Panthers’ struggles have been heavily publicized, the New Orleans Saints’ struggles on the offensive side of the football have been just as bad. QB Derek Carr has been downright bad and was knocked out of last week’s game against the Lions with a concussion. Carr has taken a few big hits in recent weeks and remains in the concussion protocol, which means his status will need to be monitored throughout the week. If Carr is unable to go, I’m not completely confident that would be a downgrade. QB Jameis Winston is a terrible decision-maker who has turnover issues. However, Winston has also shown better arm strength and the ability to get the ball down the field.

I believe the Saints are much better when they are able to stretch the field with WR Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. The deep threats alone can open up the playbook for RB Alvin Kamara and TE Taysom Hill, who should provide nightmarish matchups to this Panthers defense. The Saints’ ability to run all types of plays with their utility guys gives them options to beat Carolina’s defense in numerous ways. Personally, I believe this betting match-up simply relies on the Panthers’ ability to keep up or potentially force enough meaningful turnovers to keep things close. Panthers RB Chubba Hubbard will likely need another big performance this week, but the Saints have been fairly solid against the run. With QB Bryce Young showing no signs of improvement, I’m not sure there are many paths to a Carolina upset here, barring a lot of turnovers from the Saints’ offense.

Panthers vs. Saints Betting Trends

• The Panthers are 3-7 ATS in the last ten games.
• The Panthers have hit the “under” in five of the last six games.
• The Panthers are 0-7 SU in the last seven road games.
• The Panthers are 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 games against the Saints.
• The Saints are 1-6 ATS in the last seven games.
• The Saints have hit the “under” in 14 of the last 18 games.
• The Saints are 0-7 ATS in the last seven games at home.
• The Saints have hit the “under” in each of the last six games against the Panthers.

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Prediction

The Panthers and Saints have posted two of the worst records in football against the spread this season. Needless to say, any pick on this game should be considered a conservative pick at best. With that being said, the Saints are clearly the better team, with better matchups and a higher ceiling for this Sunday’s showdown. I believe they will cover the higher percentage of the time, and that is the reason I will lay the points here.

Jay’s Pick: Take the Saints -4.5