Cardinals vs Texans Week 11: NFL ATS Pick & Game Forecast

The Arizona Cardinals come to NRG Stadium on Sunday for a week 11 matchup with the Houston Texans. It hasn’t been often that you can say this in 2023, but the Cardinals are coming off a win with a 25-23 victory over Atlanta on Sunday, getting a nice boost from the return of quarterback Kyler Murray. Houston, meanwhile, continued to see their team climb from doormat status, getting to 5-4 on Sunday after another gutty showing from rookie sensation QB CJ Stroud, who led the Texans to an impressive road-win over Cincinnati on Sunday, with a field goal as time ran out getting them the 30-27 win. Who can get it done for us on Sunday in Houston?

Time to Look at Arizona a Different Way?

Even during his career when healthy and playing under more ideal conditions, Kyler Murray wasn’t transforming the Cardinals into steady winners. So, his return doesn’t make them a contender or anything close. It’s just that they had descended to such depths without him, in the running for the worst team in the league. With him, they should be considerably better than that. Getting James Conner back doesn’t hurt, either. Murray has some weapons, and on Sunday, we saw some of them on display. This is the first time he’s working with a new head coach in Jonathan Gannon, and new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing. Neither were planning on it being Joshua Dobbs and Clayton Tune at quarterback, so with Murray back in there, maybe we start seeing some good things.

It’s almost a miniaturized version of what Houston is going through in terms of their image. It’s just that we had all season to get acclimated to the fact that the Texans are a different deal altogether with CJ Stroud and his weapons coming around to speed so well. It’s maybe easier to be caught off-guard with the Cardinals and the idea of what could be to come with a more intact offense. Then again, the spread being Houston only minus-four as of press time doesn’t really seem to be low-rating Arizona very much at all. If it’s insulting in any direction, it might be to the steps Houston has taken this season, seemingly better than a 4-point favorite at home against a team that just won its second game as we head into week 11.

Is Houston for Real?

For this week, it doesn’t matter. You don’t need to be “for real” to beat the Cardinals by four. And maybe reading into a two-point win over a misfiring Atlanta team last week will lead us astray. Houston has won three of four and poked their heads above .500 after 9 games for the first time in a while. But even the one loss in that mix, a 15-13 defeat to Carolina that was the Panthers’ only win so far this year, shows that the Texans can still backslide into old form.

Even so, Stroud has lent an air of quality to this offense, a late pick last week only his second of the season. He has helped a receiving crew of previous little aplomb to form an identity, with Nico Collins leading the way, but followed closely by receivers Tank Dell, Noah Brown and TE Dalton Schultz. The run game can suffer, while also showing some upside with Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary. But maybe Stroud’s ascent and the fact that it’s wrong to be too critical when a team turns it around like this hides some inadequacies that still persist on this team. Collins and Pierce are also dinged-up and their statuses bear watching before Sunday.

The Case for the Cardinals

The last few weeks have shown CJ Stroud in fine form, with the Texans pulling out close wins. We have also seen their defense allow 64 combined points in the last two games. They were taking a larger role in some of the Texans’ other games with the last two weeks forcing the Texans to thrive in a more shootout mode. And while it’s promising that they can win a few different ways, it also provides an angle for the Arizona offense to get something going in this game.

With an ATS record above .500, maybe we need to realize the Cardinals weren’t as bad as we felt. Granted, that long losing streak leading up to last week was hard to sugar-coat, but there were some competitive games in that mix and enough covers to show they still had a pulse. With the jolt of getting Murray and Conner back, the newness of Murray within this system, maybe this is a decent spot against a team where it’s not hard to overstate their worth. With memories so vivid of the Texans being a laughingstock, the distance this team has traveled is something to admire, while not necessarily meaning they’re a contender.

Take the Points on the Road Dog

The case for Houston is sensible, though dare I say too sensible? I think the combination of Arizona having started so badly, along with the surprisingly-good play of the Texans have converged in this spot to create an image where people can get carried away in their optimism for Houston. With that defense suffering a little bit and the inherent rookie up-and-down trajectory that can take hold, this is a spot where maybe the Cardinals can start fast and put the Texans behind the 8-ball a little bit, give them a sweat, and creep in under that spread. I’ll take the Cardinals in this one.

Loot’s’ Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Arizona Cardinals plus 4 points.