Cardinals vs. Rams: Will Arizona Bounce Back or Fade Away?

Arizona Cardinals (7-8 SU, 9-6 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Rams (9-6 SU, 8-7 ATS)
NFL Football Week 17
Date/Time: Saturday, December 28, 2024 at 8PM EST
Where: Sofi Stadium, Inglewood, California
TV: NFL Net

The Arizona Cardinals take on the Los Angeles Rams in a key NFC West battle from SoFi Stadium on Saturday. On Sunday, the Cardinals really bottomed out in losing to the Panthers, 36-30, in overtime. It was their fourth loss in five games, eliminating them from playoff contention. At one point 6-4 and in the running for the division lead, they fell apart late and now have to take on a Rams team with the opposite trajectory, taking the bull by the horns in late-season with four straight wins, including a 19-9 win over the Jets last week. Can the Cardinals rise to the role of spoiler, or will we see the Rams start to put the finishing touches on their postseason case? Let’s break it down!

Urgency

We’re at the time of the season where a gulf in urgency can start to play a more-central role in some of these games. Not that the Cardinals will be looking to lay down in this spot, but they have to be crestfallen after seeing some positive developments sour this season. With urgency ratcheted up last week, they couldn’t even beat the Panthers, so with their playoff shot now ruined, what would make them rise to the occasion this week? Then again, it can be a dangerous game to play when perhaps putting too much stock in a team’s motivation when they’re still out there actually trying to still make good things happen. But to put forth the kind of game they had last week where Kyler Murray was bad, along with Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison coming up with so little against that Panthers’ defense, was a bad look for this team.

The Rams started at 1-4 this season, winning 8 of their last 10 games to put themselves into this spot. During that bad start to the season was one of the stranger results of this NFL regular season when the Cardinals pounded the Rams, 41-10, in a weird week two game. Nevertheless, the Rams traveled a long distance to get here from a 1-4 start and won’t be easily dissuaded. The Rams’ chances of making the playoffs are high, but staying ahead of Seattle in the division race is key, as the wild-card situation could shake out in such a way that the Rams are on the outside looking in should they be overtaken by the Seahawks, who the Rams play at home in the season-finale. In some ways, the Rams are in a good spot. They get their last two games at home. They catch a version of the Cardinals this week who might be deflated. They get Seattle at home next week, a team they already beat. To overcome all they have this season, you’d figure they take advantage of some of the perks they’re being afforded in the final two games of the season.

Why the Rams are Dangerous?

Make no mistake, despite there being some good young players on this Rams’ defense, it’s not the strong suit of the team. They seem to vary their form greatly according to opponent, sometimes thriving against struggling offenses, while struggling against better ones. Still, holding a Jets’ offense that had been playing better to 9 points last week was impressive, as was holding the 49ers to 6 points the previous week. Sure, against teams like Philly and Buffalo, the seams can come apart some, but how much of a liability are they in this spot? Granted, they allowed 41 to the Cardinals earlier in the season, showing that an on-point Arizona offense can do damage here. It’s become clear, however, that this isn’t the same Rams team and probably not the same Cardinals team, either.

Last time the Rams played the Cardinals, they were without WR Puka Nacua, who has become a favorite weapon of QB Matthew Stafford. It opens things up for other receivers like Cooper Kupp, as well as for RB Kyren Williams, a player who could do some real damage in this spot. They struggled some last week, but in general, having a healthy core of guys with Stafford, Williams, Kupp, and Nacua all in action,  this offense can really take off. They even got long-inactive TE Tyler Higbee back last week, adding another weapon. With the playoffs a sharp motivator, this offense looks to take it to a Cardinals’ “D” that gave up 36 to the Panthers last week in a must-win game. What are they going to come up with on the road for the second week in a row in a game that doesn’t matter? That type of rationale can backfire in late-season games where people cast teams in too stark of roles based on playoff-motivation. But is it not reasonable to make an allowance for the chance that we see two teams on relatively opposite ends of the positive-energy spectrum this week?

Lay the Number on the Home Favorite

This is no slam-dunk. Year after year, piles of losing tickets are left behind with bettors thinking along these same lines—that a team with a possible playoff future will eviscerate the deflated opponent whose chances are dashed. I think there is some nuance within that framework, however, that shakes out in the Rams’ favor this week. One is how ragged the Cardinals had been looking even before being eliminated. Even that team would be in big trouble this week. They’re demoralized, on the road for the second straight week with this being the holidays, taking on a team that is thriving late this season. It just seems to add up all wrong for the Cardinals. I see the Rams getting some separation and, getting the win and cover at home on Saturday. I’m taking the Rams.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Los Angeles Rams minus 6.5 points.