Buffalo vs. Rams and Chargers vs. Chiefs: Week 14 Spread Picks

Two NFL Predictions and Analysis:

Buffalo Bills at LA Rams

LA Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

If you ask the average football fan who’s the BEST team in the league right now, most people would probably say the Kansas City Chiefs, based on their 11-1 record.

If you ask the average sports bettor who’s the WORST team in the league you might get the same answer, the Kansas City Chiefs.
Despite having the best SU record in the NFL, the Chiefs are just 4-7-1 ATS. That’s not the worst ATS record in the league, the New York teams, BOTH of them, are worse. So is Tennessee. But that doesn’t surprise anyone; those teams were expected to suck as usual, and if you bet on them and lose you’re not going to be too surprised. But Kansas City is a different story. Bettors expect them to win, SU and ATS. And they bet accordingly.

Even though they have the best record in the league, many people are saying the Chiefs aren’t that good this year. It’s a ridiculous point of view, an opinion formed because the Chiefs aren’t blowing teams out like they have so often in the past few years. In recent weeks, I’ve heard sports bettors talking about betting on the Chiefs, thinking that this is the week that they’ll return to past form, and every week, they get disappointed when the Chiefs barely win the game and fail to cover the spread.

I’ve been fortunate thus far. I’ve only bet on them once, in my column back on September 22nd against Atlanta. I was laying three points on the road and barely escaped with a five-point win. I’ve stayed away from them in the nine games since but I think the time is right to back them again this Sunday.

They’re currently on an ATS losing streak of six straight games.
After their first SU loss to Buffalo on November 19th, a lot of people thought they would be a smart play the following week at Carolina. They’d be angry after losing their chance at a perfect season and would take it out on the lowly Panthers was the train of thought, but that train was derailed as the Chiefs needed a last-second field goal to come away with a 30-27 win as -11 Favs.
KC bettors saw similar results last week when they were losing to the Raiders at home in KC, again barely escaping with a 19-17 win.

So now you ask yourself, “If they can barely squeak by against two of the worst teams in the NFL in Carolina and Vegas, how are they going to beat a team with one of the best records in the league, the 8-4 LA Chargers?” The Chiefs beat the Chargers on the road earlier this season by a touchdown. Asking them to do the same at home isn’t asking too much.

One other thing in my favor for this bet – KC played on the Friday after Thanksgiving, giving them a few days extra rest and more importantly a few days more for Andy Reid to set up his game plan.
And Andy is deadly with extra prep time. He’s 21-4 after a bye week and even though this spot doesn’t give him the same amount of time off as a buy does a couple of extra days will still help him with putting in an effective game plan.

For my second buy this week, I’m turning to one of my systems.
WF2 says the Rams should be favored in their game against Buffalo.
WF2 is 18-34 overall, 17-33 on home teams like the Rams this week, giving me a 66% Fade.
Even if it weren’t a system play my gut feel tells me that Buffalo is the right side here. The Bills have the edge in every category on offense and defense. I’m currently stuck on the West Coast so I see the Rams and the Chargers games every week and there’s something wrong with the Rams, players and coaching. Their chemistry is off.
They have no shot at a wild card and a slim chance at winning the division. The Bills already locked up their division but they have their sights set on the number one seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They don’t want to go to KC in the postseason (especially after just beating them at home in Buffalo) and they own the tiebreaker, they just need KC to drop one game in their last five (hopefully not this week) and of course they need to keep winning themselves. The schedule has them facing New England twice and the Jets in their last three games. This means that with Detroit their loan tough test next week, they can’t afford to lose to a mediocre club like the Rams this weekend.
The Bills are on a seven game winning streak and in top form – all three of their last wins coming by more than a TD, and double digit wins in four of their last six.
No worries about being on the road, where Buffalo is 4-2 SU and 4-2 ATS, while LA is just 2-4 ATS at home.

Same as with the KC game, I’m not going to get beat by a hook on a -3′ so I’m buying it down to a FG.
(I usually just keep a straight up record for my plays but since I’m using extra juice in these two I’ll add a dollar total based on a standard 110/100 wager.)

When to Buy Recommendation

I wrote this article on Wednesday when the KC line was -3′ everywhere. There are still a couple -3′ out there but -4 is now the common number.
It’s hard enough to win without repeating mistakes, and by waiting till Thursday to proofread, edit and submit this I cost myself extra juice to get the -3 I want for this spot. I have to move my NFL ‘capping up to earlier in the week so I can take advantage of opening lines when I need them.
Paying extra juice is obviously something I’d like to avoid, but buying a line to -3 can be the right move in the NFL, and the KC game is a prime candidate for it because the Chiefs may have only won four games ATS this season but they HAVE been winning SU, and if that continues only two numbers can beat my -3, a win by one or two points.
I’ve only What the hook once this season. A few weeks ago, it got me a push on Detroit at Houston and saved me a unit. I’m feeling that vibe again this week.
Best price to get it down to a field goal on both games is at our sponsor Bookmaker.

This week’s plays:

Buf -3, -128
KC -3, -136
Recap: 1-1
Record: 11-11.5
Review: Got a W on Dallas team total over, took an L on the Colts -3 as they won but couldn’t cover.