Buffalo Bills vs. Washington Commanders Odds, Analysis, Free Pick

Buffalo Bills (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Washington Commanders (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS)

Week 3 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, September 24, 2023 at 1PM EDT

Where: FedEx Field, Landover, Maryland

TV: CBS

Point Spread: BUF -6.5/WAS +6.5 (Check out our list of sportsbook promo codes that get you 100% bonuses at top tier online bookies!)

Money Line: Buff -280, Wash +230

Over/Under Total: 44.5

The Buffalo Bills come to Landover to face the Washington Commanders in a week three battle at FedEx Field. It’s a bit surprising to see the Commanders somewhat-quietly land in this spot at 2-0 with little fanfare, fresh off a big comeback win over Denver on the road, 35-33, avoiding a late comeback attempt by the Broncos in the process. Buffalo, meanwhile, was able to put their week one overtime loss to the Jets behind them with a nice-looking 38-10 win over the Raiders, where we saw Josh Allen and this offense getting back to its old form, with the defense following suit against a dangerous Vegas offense. Can they take to the road this week and get it done against an upstart Commanders squad? Or will we see the Commanders serve notice that they’re a team worth watching?

Washington: A Strange Study

Two fourth-quarter comeback wins is nothing to sneeze at, particularly when led by a rookie QB in Sam Howell seeing his first league action. Their defense has been clutch, with a big pass-rush resonating at key times when the offense is trying to stage a comeback. Howell himself has hardly been dynamic, but they have a varied cast, especially aerially, which makes it hard to identify stars. They are still pretty effective, with Brian Robinson coming out of the backfield, Antonio Gibson making runs and catching balls, with TE Logan Thomas (questionable) and receivers Curtis Samuel, Terry McLaurin, and Jahan Dotson chipping in, as well. There are still a few things that make you look at the Washington start with a quizzical eye, especially within the context of now having to hang in there with a team like Buffalo.

Beating Arizona at home by four and not covering the spread before beating a sideways Broncos squad at home and needing to stop a two-point conversion late after allowing a Russell Wilson Hail-Mary is a good start for a team that wasn’t terribly well-regarded. It’s also not the signal of a Washington revival. Hats off to the Washington defense for a good start to the season. Their pass-rush, the stiffness of their front, and the talent they’ve accumulated on this unit will resonate but now is where maybe we start to see some of Howell’s shortcomings, both in going against a higher-end defense also with the possibility that Howell will need to rely more on aerial production if Buffalo starts laying it on thick.

Can the Commanders Dial up the Right Recipe?

With Buffalo, there seems to be a growing vibe of uncertainty. Whether it’s simply the team’s slightly-diminishing results or Allen’s higher propensity for making mistakes, there is a shrinking level of bankability with them. Their romp over the Raiders last week likely will provide people with a feeling of security that the high-powered Buffalo offense is back, along with their stout and playmaking defense. There will certainly be weeks where we see that, but enough weeks where we don’t. Buffalo never plays here, and most of their roster has never seen this stadium. It’s an out-of-context matchup. If, in fact, we see a Buffalo offense surface off-rhythm, this Commanders’ defense can make a team pay. If Washington can turn this into more of a nip-and-tuck battle, their run-game and “D” can resonate, while the lack of electricity Sam Howell provides can be camouflaged to some degree.

It is going to come down to whether Howell and the Commanders can take what worked in a reduced context against Arizona and Denver and see it fly against an established contender such as Buffalo. And it’s not like their offense has been high-flying, twice starting the game slowly and needing to rely on double-digit point comebacks late in games. It’s hard to envision that script playing out as well against the Bills this week. They may need to rely on a more normal path to a win where they start the game fast, let their defense take hold, and hope they’re in it late with a chance at the win. Also, the Buffalo offensive line hasn’t performed poorly this season by any means, but in recent years, we’ve seen them struggle against some of the more fearsome fronts they’ve faced, so Washington is going to need to see their pass-rush start to dial itself in, with guys like Montez Sweat leading the way. If this part of the formula falls flat, it’s going to be a real uphill battle for the Commanders.

A Tricky Game to Predict

It’s difficult to approach this game and not be of two distinctly different minds. One is that Buffalo is a cut above, and the bankability of their offense with Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs and their array of other weapons will just smother Washington, as the Bills post a lopsided win. The other is that when you combine Buffalo’s shrinking bankability along with how a road game against the Commanders is just inherently more-difficult than it appears, a 19-16 or 24-21 type of grind is squarely on the table. For a Buffalo backer, it’s hard not to think this is going to be harder than it looks, and if you’re backing Washington, it’s hard not to think this is maybe where the Commanders get fed a bit of a reality sandwich.

Lay the Points

Being on the right side of the hook helps in a game where both sides provide a feeling of discomfort. There are so many scenarios and possibilities at play that, in the end, it just seems like slightly more favor Buffalo getting a one-TD win or better. I think having comparable firepower on offense with their opponents in their first two games was key both for the Washington offense to hang in there well enough to be in a position to make a comeback, as well as for the defense to show their teeth. This game should provide a bit of a different look, with the Bills being at a different level than what the Commanders have seen thus far. I’m taking the Bills.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Buffalo Bills minus 6.5 points.