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Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets Week 1 Pick

by Keith Franks | Last updated Sep 4, 2019 | nfl

Buffalo Bills (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. New York Jets (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) When: Sunday, September 8th, 2019 – 1:00 PM ET Where: MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ TV: CBS

Point Spread: BUF +3 / NYJ -3 (Sportsbetting.ag) Total: 40

Power Ratings: N/A

Takeaways From 2018-19 Season

The Bills offered up a disappointing follow-up to their playoff berth in the 2017-18 season, finishing 6-10 to end off their efforts. Buffalo brings back a team that was known for its defensive muscles in the 2018-19 campaign. The Bills will look to go back to their run-happy ways and acquired both Frank Gore and T.J. Yeldon in the off-season to bolster their rushing attack. The Jets finished in the basement of the AFC East, posting a disenfranchising 4-12 record. With the acquisition of LeVeon Bell in the off-season, the Jets offense looks to be reignited under the former Pittsburgh star who joins Quarterback Sam Darnold who will enter his second full season in New York Jets uniform. And on that note, the Jets are also debuting some rather sporty new threads.

How the Public is Betting the Buffalo-New York Game

In the early going, we saw bettors take to the Bills as a 3.5-point dog and reduce this market to its present position of the Jets spotting a field goal. Presently, New York is taking back 58% of the consensus action as a field goal choice. It is worth annotating that the 3.5-point spot is a notorious favorite-friendly number as it is designed to attract action on the dog with the guise of an easy cover should the Bills lose by a field goal. It seems that the bait may have been bitten here.

The Historicals

This AFC East rivalry has been a well-balanced one for the most part as of late. The Bills and Jets have each won two of the last four between both parties. In the most recent collision between these two rivals, the Jets staged an upset of the Bills in Buffalo defeating them by a score of 27-23 despite closing as a 4.5-point underdog.

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Betting Trends

This is a very underdog-friendly series as the dog has gone 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two sides. Undoubtedly, this can explain the early inclination to take the points with Buffalo by the public. For Over/Under players, the Over is 7-2 ATS in the previous nine meetings at MetLife Stadium.

Injury Concerns

The two most noteworthy injury issues affect both teams on the defensive side of the ball. For the Bills, their star Defensive End Jerry Hughes is listed as questionable for Week One with a wrist injury. Hughes contributed seven sacks to Buffalo in the 2018-19 campaign. For Gang Green, stand-out linebacker Avery Williamson will be gone for the season due to a torn ACL. Williamson offered up his best season in his career in 2018-19 when accrued 80 tackles, six pass deflections, and three sacks.

Why We Like Gang Green To Cover

There are many reasons to like the Jets here beginning with the narrative of home-field advantage. The Bills went just 2-6 on the road in the 2018-19 season. Respectively, one of those two wins came against these New York Jets, and it was an impressive one at that, polishing Gang Green 41-10 on November 11th. However, the victory was against an entirely different Jets team that the Bills faced in the aforementioned blow out. New York did not have Sam Darnold under center, and they had no featured running back to keep the stingy Buffalo defense honest. Now, Buffalo has to face New York with a healthy Darnold and LeVeon Bell lining up behind him. When the Jets staged the road upset of the Bills, guess who was hurling the rock? Mister Darnold. With an enthusiastic and rejuvenated fan base behind them, I expect the Jets to take advantage of the home cooking. MetLife Stadium can be very cruel to visitors when it gets rocking, and there is no doubt it will be on opening day.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: New York Jets -3

Lest we forget that we are being asked to spot just a field goal to the visitors. I think New York can win this one by more than that margin. In fact, I think New York will win this game by at least a touchdown which means we have tremendous value to work with spotting a much lower tag. Unlike recent editions of the Jets offense, New York will be balanced in all phases. I expect contributions also to be made by Wide Receiver Robbie Anderson who is an emerging playmaker and veteran wide-out Quincy Enunwa. Both receivers have the capacity to be a 1,000-yard receiving threat should they stay healthy in 2019. This game will be the coming-out party for the revamped Jets offense.