Buffalo Bills vs. New York Giants Week 2 Pick

Buffalo Bills (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. New York Giants (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
When: Sunday, September 15th, 2019 – 1:00 PM ET
Where: MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ
TV: CBS

Point Spread: BUF -2.5 / NYG +2.5 (SportBet)
Total: 42.5

Takeaways From Week One

The Bills orchestrated a 16-point comeback in hostile environs when they defeated their divisional rivals, the New York Jets by a score of 17-16. The Bills closed as a 2.5-point underdog against the Giants’ housemates and were led to victory by gun-slinger Quarterback Josh Allen and Wide Receiver “Mean” John Brown who had the most receiving yards in a Bills debut (123 reception yards).

The Giants received a stomping at the hands of their divisional rivals, the Dallas Cowboys. The G-Men were walloped 35-17 by America’s Team failing to cover the +7 point spread. After scoring first, Big Blue would allow Big D to go on a 35-3 scoring run before they scored a junk-time touchdown to lower the deficit.

How the Public is Betting the Buffalo-New York Game

We have already seen a significant line move take shape here as the G-Men opened as 2.5-point chalk and have now moved to a 2.5-point dog. 59% of the consensus like the Giants in this spot.

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The Historicals

The Giants are riding a three-game winning streak that dates back to 2007. These two sides last met in 2015 in Buff City when the Bills curated hosted duties. The Giants orchestrated the upset as a 6.5-point underdog.

Betting Trends

The Giants have been a cash-cow in this series as they have produced a delectable 7-1-1 ATS in the previous nine meetings between both parties. This trend ironically enough begins with the Giants epic 20-19 Super Bowl victory in 1991 by virtue of Steve Norwood’s missed field goal. Though this is an extraneous narrative, I can almost guarantee that Doug McDermott will be using this as bulletin board material to encourage his team to “change history”. On another note, the Bills have covered now in seven straight and have won six games straight up, including their mild upset of the Jets, the pre-season, and their 2018 finale against the Miami Dolphins. What this does is set up the red-hot Bills for a market correction and thus position them to be overpriced.

Injury Concerns

Giants Wide Receiver Golden Tate remains suspended until Week Five after violating the NFL’s Performance Enhancement Substances policy. Tate was picked up to help alleviate the void left by premier wide-out Odell Beckham, Jr. who departed for Cleveland in the off-season. Outside of this key absence, the Giants nor the Bills have any critical injuries to report.

Why We Like The Giants To Cover

Will Buffalo put an end to the Giants’ dominance in this series? Certainly. Will it happen this time around? I think not. Teams that come from behind and undergo an emotional win as the Bills did in Week One are an excellent fade target in their follow-up. It is for this reason that the Bills were likely priced as a dog initially. Without question, public sentiment has caused the chalk to become the pooch in this clash. After all, the G-Men did not offer up a good showing against the Cowboys after many were buying on New York to potentially upset Dallas. I have heard such things said as Eli Manning will lead New York to victory as a part of his “swan song”. Unfortunately, the only singing I heard was the fat lady when the Boys got up 28-10 early in the third quarter. However, the Giants have the opportunity to redeem themselves in front of their fan base in their home opener and at the expense of a Buffalo team that will be playing their second road game in a row which is never an easy task for any outfit to tackle.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: New York Giants +110 (Money Line)

The Giants will respond with a victory against the Bills to get themselves to 1-1 on the season. Will it be pretty? Probably not but if there was one silver lining to take away from their excursion with the Cowboys, it is that the Giants have an exceptional talent in Running Back Saquon Barkley who ran for 120 yards on just 11 carries. Should Big Blue put the rock in Barkley’s hands more and get him into space, he will be a challenge for this stingy Buffalo rushing defense that gave up just 68 yards on the ground to the Jets. After all, despite New York posting one of the worst records in 2018 and being known for a porous offensive line, no one could stop Saquon as he accrued over 2,000 all-purpose yards and 15 total touchdowns in his rookie campaign. I like the Giants to feed this beast and ride his shoulders toward a win.