Buffalo Bills (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS)
NFL Week 10
Date and Time: Sunday, November 11 1:00PM
Where: Gillette Stadium Foxborough, Massachusetts
TV: CBS
by Bob, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: BUF +11/NE -11
Over/Under Total: OFF
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This Sunday, the Buffalo Bills will travel to Foxborough to take on the 1st place New England Patriots in an AFC East matchup. Currently the Patriots sit atop the division at 5-3 while Buffalo and the New York Jets are in the cellar at 3-5. One game can make this a very interesting division race for all four teams involved. Historically you would think that New England would make it a cake walk, but at the halfway point, the Patriots have yet to put much distance between them and the rest of the pack. This will be the second time that these two division foes faced off this season. Back on September 30th, the Patriots went into Buffalo and beat the Bills by a score of 52-28. The score looks one sided, which it is, but Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick did throw for over 300 yards and 4 TDs against the Patriots D. The only problem was that he also had 4 picks to go along with the TDs. At half time, the Bills actually held a 14-7 lead, but in the second half, New England went on a 45-14 run while scoring TDs on their first 5 possessions of the half. The Bills I am sure went back to watch the film of what went wrong in that second half and will hope to make this game more competitive down the stretch.
New England opens as an 11 point favorite over the Bills in this contest. Of course the eye test goes to the Patriots based on their success over the past decade as well as the 52-28 hammering that we discussed earlier. The public always leans toward the Pats, but this isn’t your typical Patriots team you have grown accustomed to. New England has not been overly dominant in most of their games and at times, their defense can be a little suspect ranking 26th in all of the NFL in passing yards allowed. The Patriots have however, won 4 of their last 5 games, and the one loss coming against Seattle on a late TD that gave the Seahawks a 1 pt win over New England. In order to cover this double digit spread, the Patriots offense will need to put up some big numbers, and they are more than capable of doing that. Look for a large dose of Tom Brady airing the ball out in order to put this thing away.
STOP WASTING MONEY! STOP LAYING -110
ON GAMES; START LAYING ONLY -105 ODDS AT BETANYSPORTS
The Buffalo Bills come into this matchup as huge ‘dogs. They have not forgotten the 45 second half points scored on them last time and they come in wanting to prove that was merely a fluke. Buffalo has had a rough run since the midway point of last season and things just haven’t got much better for them. Their passing defense ranks just 22nd in the NFL and their run defense sits at an abysmal 31st in the league, leading only the Saints in the category. In order to pull off this win and/or cover this 11 point spread, the Bills will have to tighten up on the defensive side of the ball as well as control the ball on offense. Buffalo does have the 7th best rushing offense in all the NFL so if they can focus on this aspect of their game, there’s a chance to keep the contest low scoring, giving them a chance late in the 4th to still be in the game. This was the plan they had last week versus Houston that ALMOST worked.almost. Buffalo kept the game close with the Texans but towards the end ran out of gas and Houston put them away. I do feel that Houston is a better team than New England, but based on the styles of play alone, I think this contest could be much more difficult for Buffalo. The Bills will have their hands full with the Patriots all out offensive attack, but being a division game, anything is possible.
Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Just last week I wrote about double digit road underdogs and I took Buffalo to cover at Houston. Buffalo nearly made me look like a genius but didn’t quite close it out for us. Well, here we are again, Buffalo on the road as a double digit underdog. As much as I hate laying the points in these contests, we may have no choice. New England has covered 4 of the last 5 games versus Buffalo and 4 of those were in blowout fashion. From what I witnessed in Buffalo earlier this season, I just cannot see the Bills keeping this close. New England found the Bills weakness and there’s no better team in the NFL to expose a weakness than the New England Patriots. I smell a 38-13 type victory in this one. The Patriots win, and win easily. PICK: PATRIOTS -11
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