Buffalo Bills (2-9 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) vs. Minnesota Vikings (4-7 SU, 3-8 ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, Week 13 NFL, Sunday, December 5, 2010, Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome, Minneapolis, Minn. TV: CBS
by Ryno of Predictem.com
Betting Odds: Buf +5.5/Min -5.5
Over/Under Total: 45
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To say the least, the Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings are not having successful seasons. The Vikings were picked by some to be a SuperBowl team this year. That’s probably not happening. Even with acquiring star wide receiver Randy Moss, who had a short stay with the team, the Vikings really looked like a Super Bowl contender. But they’ve failed to win two games in a row all season long and are now in must-win mode to even have a remote chance at making the playoffs. The Bills, on the other hand, started off 0-8 before winning two games in a row and nearly winning a third in a row last week. So they’re playing better, but still they have nothing really to play for at this point.
The Bills started the season 0-5 going into their bye week. They were a legitimately bad team. But after the bye, they lost three more games in a row, all by just three points, to the Ravens, Chiefs and Bears. They just didn’t know how to win games. Any of those three games could have gone in their favor. But then the Bills finally broke through and beat the Detroit Lions 14-12 to get their first win of the season. The next week, after trailing 28-7 at Cincinnati, the Bills came back and ended up blowing out the Bengals in the second half, 49-31.
On Sunday, they had a chance to win their third game in a row. But the Bills fell short by losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers in overtime, 19-16. Bills kicker Ryan Lindell kicked a 49-yard field goal at the end of regulation to tie the game at 16. In overtime, the Bills had a chance to win it by wide receiver Steve Johnson dropped the ball wide open in the end zone. The Steelers got the ball back and kicked a game-winning field goal.
Ryan Fitzpatrick was 23-for-45 passing for 265 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Fred Jackson had 12 carries for 59 yards. He also caught five passes for 104 yards and a touchdown. Johnson had seven catches for 68 yards. For the season, Johnson has 59 receptions for 796 yards and nine touchdowns. Fitzpatrick has 2,226 passing yards and 19 touchdowns. Jackson has 621 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns.
Brad Childress was fired last week as the Vikings head coach after a 31-3 loss to the Packers. Leslie Frazier, the new coach, got his first win, 17-13 over the Washington Redskins on Sunday. Brett Favre was 15-for-23 passing for 172 yards. Adrian Peterson had six carries for 36 yards and a touchdown but had to leave the game with a sprained ankle. He is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Bills. Toby Gerhart came in to replace Peterson and had 22 carries for 76 yards and a touchdown.
Favre is having one of the worst seasons of his career. He has 2,446 passing yards, 10 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. Peterson has 1,016 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. Percy Harvin leads the team in receiving with 51 receptions for 627 yards and four touchdowns.
If Peterson doesn’t play, that’s a huge boost for the Bills. Either way, they need to stop the run. Favre has not killed teams really at all this year, so the Vikings are going to rely on a strong running attack. The Bills don’t have an incredible offense but they are capable of some long passing plays to Johnson. The Vikings need to be aware of where Johnson is at all times.
The Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games, 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog, 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog, and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall. The Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six December games and 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. The under is 5-0 in the Bills’ last six December games and 4-1 in their last five games overall. The under is 5-1 in the Vikings’ last six December games.
Ryno’s Pick: If you saw the Buffalo Bills overall record it would lead you to believe that they’re an absolute disaster. If you watched the games you’d see that this team has plenty of fight in them and they’ve dropped some very well contested ball games. I love the Bills getting +5.5 in this spot. Take Buffalo plus the points.
