Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Spread Prediction

Buffalo Bills (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS)

Date/Time: Sunday, October 10, 8:20 PM EST

Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

TV: NBC

Point Spread: Buf +2.5 / KC -2.5

Over/Under Total: 56.5

Strap up your boots for this week’s Sunday Night marquis match-up when the Bills travel to Kansas City to try and avenge their 2020 AFC Championship loss against the Chiefs. Bookmaker has made the Chiefs 2.5 point favorites and set the over/under at 56.5. I’m taking the Chiefs to cover the short spread. Here is the handicap.

KC Is Still the Cream of the Crop

The Chiefs have stumbled out of the gate in the 2020 campaign, dropping two of their first three before taking care of business last week in Philadelphia. KC’s defense has been the biggest issue, but All-World QB Patrick Mahomes proved he was mortal in September. The offense has turned the ball over seven times and wasn’t able to outscore the Ravens or the Chargers. But still, after the first quarter of the season, who do you think is the best team in the AFC? KC has a revamped offensive line for 2021 that is coming together and man-handled a solid Philly defensive line last week, generating 200 rushing yards and only allowing one sack. Mahomes proceeded to look like the best quarterback on the planet, completing 80% of his passes for five touchdowns. Tyreek Hill filled the stat sheet up with 11 grabs on 12 targets and was the recipient of three of the TD throws. Hill has started slow, but he requires double teams on every play, as does tight end Travis Kelce, who took a back seat to Hill on Sunday. When the Chiefs are firing on all cylinders and take care of the ball, they are the most potent offense in the league. They have been unstoppable since Mahomes took the reigns, and as their O-line gels, they will be unstoppable again. I look for them to put another solid performance and score as needed Monday night.

The Chief defense is a work in progress. They have currently have allowed the 2nd most points in the league and are last in opponents’ yards per play. But the defense has made plays late in games to give KC a shot at winning. KC has also played three solid offenses, including the two best rushing teams the league offers. They will have their hands full with a red-hot Bill offense, but Buffalo will not run the ball down their throats, so look for the KC to match up better with Buffalo than they did with the Browns or the Ravens. KC defense should be able to get a couple of key stops on Sunday Night and give Mahomes the chance to be the hero.

Buffalo Has to Beat the Champ

Buffalo stubbed their toes in Week 1 against Pittsburgh and has outscored their three opponents by 97 points since then. But those opponents were the Dolphins, WFT, and the Texans – not exactly murderer’s row. Throw in their Week 1 loss to the Steelers, and Buffalo’s opponents this year have a combined 5-11 record. Buffalo is 2nd in the league in points allowed but only 17th in yards per play. Josh Allen is completing only 63% of his passes and has yet to get Stefon Diggs going. Emmanuel Sanders has been the most dangerous weapon for Allen, so KC will have to focus on him along with Diggs. Buffalo has been able to run the ball, but mostly during garbage time – and there has been a lot of garbage time. Buffalo’s offense couldn’t get off the mat in a close game in week 1. The Chief defense does not compare to the Steeler D, but Allen has never proven he can put his team on his back and carry them to a big win. I don’t think Allen can trade punches with Mahomes and come out on top, so look for Allen to make some errant throws or turn the ball over on Sunday night.

The Bills D also has been excellent, but against Roethlisberger, Tua and Brissett, Heinicke and Mills. Nothing they have done in the past month will get them ready for Mahomes on Sunday night. The Bills D was not very good last year, and we don’t know how good they are this year. Are they good enough to slow down the Chief offense, we’ll find out on Sunday night, but I doubt it.

KC Will Repeat the AFC Championship Game

These teams met in late January to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, and KC dominated the game. Both Kelce and Hill went off for over 100 yards, with Mahomes throwing for 325 yards and three touchdowns compared to Allen’s 287 yards, two touchdowns, and one pick. Allen couldn’t put the ball in the endzone, so the Bills were getting field goals to take an early 9-0 lead before Mahomes reeled off three touchdowns and KC never looked back. I think KC picks up where they left off in January and handily wins what might be a preview of the AFC Championship game.

Play the Chiefs –2.5

It’s hard to believe there is a little value on the Chiefs this week. The Bills have been a steam-rolling team, and this line has moved from the Chiefs at a field goal or more. The Chiefs were struggling to cover before last week’s win against the Eagles, but KC is the play as long as the spread is less than a field goal. Bet your week 5 NFL picks for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 at GTBets!