Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Point Spread, Analysis, Prediction

Buffalo Bills (4-1 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS)
When: Sunday, October 16, 4:25 p.m.
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.
TV: CBS

Point Spread: BUF -2.5/KC +2.5 (Wagerweb – You can make the Bills +16.5 or the Chiefs +21.5 by inserting either into a massive 19 point NFL teaser found there!)
Total: O/U 53.5

Outlook

Anyone who paid attention in the playoffs last season remembers this game as a total classic in which Kansas City just barely outlasted Buffalo. Will we get a repeat in this regular season rematch? History says no, as these teams are meeting for the third straight year in the regular season and have played out two forgettable matchups that weren’t particularly close. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen seem to save their best for the biggest stages, as both have put on a show in their playoff meetings with each other.

But in the regular season, it’s really just been the visitor doing the work. Kansas City came to Buffalo in 2020 and delivered a reality check to the Bills that they weren’t quite on a championship level yet. A year later, Buffalo turned the tables and put Kansas City on notice with an 18-point rout of Mahomes and the Chiefs at Arrowhead. Of course, the Bills have yet to go to Kansas City and win in the postseason, but in the regular season, Buffalo has been very comfortable at Arrowhead, winning five of the past seven matchups in Missouri.

How the Public is Betting the Buffalo/Kansas City Game

The public believes the Bills are the more legitimate team, as 57% of the tickets have come in on Buffalo. That hasn’t been enough to move the needle or the total in either direction.

Injury Concerns

Buffalo:Defensive tackle Ed Oliver (ankle), wide receiver Isaiah McKenzie (concussion), and cornerback Cam Lewis (forearm) are questionable. Center Mitch Morse (elbow), defensive tackle Daquan Jones (hip), cornerback Kaiir Elam (foot), defensive tackle Jordan Phillips (hamstring), running back Taiwan Jones (knee), safety Jordan Poyer (ribs), offensive lineman Justin Murray (foot), defensive back Xavier Rhodes (hamstring), tight end Dawson Knox (foot), linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (hamstring) and cornerback Tre’Davious White (knee) are questionable. Safety Micah Hyde (neck), wide receiver Jamison Crowder (ankle), tackle Tommy Doyle (knee), wide receiver Jake Kumerow (ankle), cornerback Christian Benford (hand), wide receiver Marquez Stevenson (foot), linebacker Andre Smith (suspension) and guard Ike Boettger (Achilles) are out.

Kansas City:Cornerback Rashad Fenton (hamstring), cornerback Trent McDuffie (hamstring), tackle Darian Kinnard (elbow), kicker Harrison Butker (ankle), running back Ronald Jones II (illness), defensive end Joshua Kaindoh (illness), offensive lineman Trey Smith (pectoral), cornerback L’Jarious Sneed (ankle) and defensive end Mike Danna (calf) are questionable. Linebacker Willie Gay (suspension), offensive lineman Lucas Niang (knee), tight end Blake Bell (hip flexor), and wide receiver Justyn Ross (foot) are out.

When Buffalo Has the Ball

When the Bills have a matchup in their favor, they know how to exploit it. Buffalo has ripped off three dominating wins out of four, and that happened because the Bills were putting up huge numbers through the air. Against Pittsburgh last week, the Bills amassed 557 yards of offense, and the Steelers were never in the game in a 38-3 result. Buffalo did something similar to Tennessee and has frankly been scary when it has played at home.

On the road, the Bills are inconsistent. They are 2-1 SU and 1-1-1 ATS away from home, but they’ve easily had their worst showings in their past two road games. They couldn’t get the job done at Miami, and they needed a poor coaching decision from Baltimore to emerge unscathed on that trip. And that’s in part because the Bills turn the ball over far too often while they’re trying to put up big numbers. An interception a game isn’t ideal, and that’s right around where Josh Allen is right now. There’s far more good than bad here, but there is an opportunity for the right defense to take advantage of the Bills’ tendency for mistakes. That said, Kansas City is probably not that defense; the Chiefs rank a mere 24th against the pass.

When Kansas City Has the Ball

With this offense, the Chiefs are never really out of a game. They proved that last week when they got hit in the mouth against the Raiders in a 17-0 game and came back to win 30-29 against their bitter rival. Kansas City will throw with Patrick Mahomes whenever it can, and in this game, you honestly wonder if the Chiefs will even bother trying to run on Buffalo’s dynamite run defense, given their weakness with the run.

The problem is that the Chiefs have to find some way to attack this defense because, unlike Kansas City, Buffalo’s defense doesn’t really have a weak point. The Bills have built their team with the AFC championship in mind and have a pass defense that ranks in the top five in the NFL in hopes of finally taking down the Chiefs and bringing a Super Bowl to western New York. Mahomes is always going to find ways to make plays, but this is the first big test for the Bills to go up against him with the defense they’ve created. This is the game Buffalo has been working toward.

Betting Trends

As stated, the Bills are very comfortable in Kansas City in the regular season. Buffalo won here last year and has gone 5-2 SU on its past seven regular-season trips to Missouri. Beyond that, the road team has been the much better bet in this game, covering in nine of the past 13 matchups between the teams.

Kansas City’s been a bad bet against AFC teams as of late, as teams are figuring out how to hang around with the Chiefs. Kansas City is 0-4 ATS in its past four against AFC foes, which could also have something to do with the schedule. For the Bills, grass might be the equalizer: they have zero covers in their past five attempts on the natural surface.

Weather Report

It will still be a fairly comfortable day in the 3 p.m. Central window of football, as temperatures will sit in the mid-60s with winds at 9 miles per hour going north-northwest. Temperatures will plunge to the 40s in the evening, but most of the game should be played in good weather.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

This game is huge for Buffalo because it’s a chance for the Bills to prove that the work they’ve invested in the pass defense can pay off in January. More importantly, the winner of this game is likely to have the inside track to host Bills-Chiefs III in the playoffs after the first two were both played in Kansas City.

The Bills have seen Kansas City host four straight AFC championship games, and they’ve seen two straight seasons end in Kansas City. This is their chance to get the AFC to go through western New York. Give me the Bills. Bet your Week 6 NFL football predictions for FREE by scoring a 100% real cash bonus up to $300 when you use bonus promo code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!