Buffalo Bills(5-3SU,4-3-1 ATS) at Dallas Cowboys (4-4SU,4-4 ATS), Week10 NFL,SundayNovember 13th, 1:00 PM Eastern, Cowboys Stadium (Artificial Turf),Arlington Texas
By JeffHochman, Pro Handicapper, JH-Sportsline
Point Spread:Buf +5/DAL -5
Over/Under Total:48
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The Buffalo Bills have alternated wins and losses since defeating New England on September 25th. And, they are coming off a loss to the New York Jets who completely dominated the second half of the game. Buffalo only gained 287 yards on offense whichis a season-low. The Jets held the ball for 15 minutes more than Buffalo while racking up 126 rushing yards. Ryan Fitzpatrick completed just 15 passes for 191 yards 1 TD and 2INT’s. He will have to pick his game upbecausethe Cowboys TonyRomoaverages 277 passing yards per game for his career.
The Dallas Cowboys bounced back from their awfulperformancetwo weeks and defeated the Seahawks at home 23-13, as 11-point home favorites. They failed to cover and flewwellunder the posted total of 45. The Cowboys last four games have allstayed Under the total. TonyRomowas 19 of 31 for 279 yards, rookieDeMarcoMurrayturned 22 carries into 139 yards. He also caught4 passes for 47 yards. Murray hasproventhat his 253-yard performance in his firstcareer startwas no fluke. He is the real deal.WheneverFelix Jonesreturns (this Sunday)from a high ankle sprain, he couldfind himself backing up the formerthird-round pick from OK. Felix will still get some carries as he is very talented too.
Thedifferencebetween these two teams before the season started was that the Cowboys were supposed to be good and the Bills were supposed to be bad. The Bills have put together a solid 2011 season so far. In the Bills three losses this season, those teams are an impressive 17-7, but in the Bills five victories this season, those teams are a combined 19-21. This is the NFL and you never really know what yourgetting until it plays out. Dallas is 4-4 SU, but they are 7-1 In the stats this season. The Bills are just 3-5 In thestats through eight games.
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Dallas has played a somewhat soft schedule thanks in part to the NFC East being down this season. The only team the Cowboys had success with,who havea winning record is the San Francisco 49ers.But that was in Week two, whichis 8 weeks ago. Sooner or later you would think a team that usually (7-1 ITS) out-gaines itsopponent, they will start a long winning streak.
The Buffalo Bills will welcome back, formerhead coach for the Cowboys, ChanGaileyinto a new building he has never been in. In two seasons with Dallas(1998 & 1999),Gaileywas 18-14 and made the playoffs in both seasons. He is a very good coach and Buffalo is happy to have him. On the injury front for Dallas, Miles Austinwill miss the next 2-4 weeks with a hamstring pull — again. Seems like he isalwayshurt!
With Austin out, expect Laurent Robinson’s playing time to increase. Robinson has managed to play well in his time on the field with TonyRomoand the first team offense. Robinson has hauled in a touchdown pass in each of the last two games, and has two100+ yard games on his resumealready this season.He has been a steal off the waiver wire. Luckily for Dallas, the injury to Austin might not hamper the Cowboys passing game, as the Bills are ranked No. 25 in pass defense, allowing over 260 yards per game through the air. It does look like Felix Jones is healthy enough to play and thatshouldonly help the runninggame asDeMarcoMurray hasprovento be a rising star. The Bills willneed a new kicker becuase Rian Lindell was placed on IR this past Tuesday. That could be a factor in this game.
Defensively, the Cowboys will have to try to slow down Buffalo’s run and gunoffense, which features running back Fred Jackson andwide-outSteve Johnson. The Bills run a base three-wide receiver set offense. Fred Jacksonhas rushed for 803 yards on the season to go along with 391 receiving yards. Jackson has 6 rushing touchdowns which ranks sixth. The Cowboys do have some depth in the defensive backfield which should help in their quest of defeating the Bills.
In 2007 these two teams last met and saw Dallas win 25-24 as 9-point home chalk. TonyRomothrew 5 interceptions in that game, but didthrow for over 300 yards. Trent Edwards was the QB of the Bills. Ibelievethat wasRomo’sfirst or second career start. The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week ten. The Cowboys are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games in November. The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
The Bills are 3-9SUand 3-9 ATS after adivisiongame over the last three seasons. The Cowboys are 8-3SUand 8-3 ATSinahome game whenthe total isbetween 45.5 AND 49PTS.
Jeff’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Dallas Cowboys -5.
I will stay at home with the Cowboys as they are playing back-to-back home games off aSUhomewin. Dallas has been dynamite in this role since 2000, cashing 68% against the spread on the blind. The Bills are coming off a veryphysicalgameagainstAFC East rival New York Jets. I think Dallas is poised for a nice winning streak. Take Dallas minus the five!
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