Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles Best Bet for Week 12

Buffalo Bills (6-5 SU, 4-7 ATS) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-1, 6-2-2), 11/26/23
When: 4:25 pm ET Sunday, Nov. 26
Where: Lincoln Financial Field
TV: CBS

Betting Odds

Point spread: Buff +3/Phil -3
Money line: Buff +145/Phil -165
Total: 48.5

Fresh off proving themselves the best team in the NFL at the moment, the Eagles get little rest, welcoming in the Bills for a tough inter-conference bout Sunday evening.

Philadelphia owns the best record in Football and just beat the defending Super Bowl champs. Buffalo, on the other hand, is struggling just to stay above .500.

So why are the Eagles only favored by a field goal?

NFL Betting Odds

The Week 12 NFL betting market opened Philadelphia as a three-point favorite for Sunday, with an over/under of right around 48. Early betting action then edged that total to 48.5.

Bills-Eagles Betting Preview

Buffalo just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 32-6 victory over the rival Jets last Sunday. The Bills favored at -8.5, scored the first 16 points of the game, let New York get within 16-6 at the half, then pulled away in the second half for the win and the cover.

Buffalo dominated the stat sheet, but what we liked was the 130 yards on the ground against one of the better defenses in the League and one meaningless turnover by QB Allen.

The Bills switched offensive coordinators last week, then racked up 393 yards against New York. We’ll see if that carries over.

We’d talk about the Buffalo defense effort last week, but they played the Jets, so …

Three weeks ago, the Bills lost to Cincinnati 24-18. Two weeks ago, they trailed rejuvenated Denver most of the night; then, they should have won the game but got called for 12 men on the field and lost on a field goal at the buzzer.

At 6-5 overall, Buffalo now trails 6-4 Pittsburgh by a half-game in the battle for the No. 7 spot in the AFC playoff standings.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia just won the biggest match-up of the season so far, the Super Bowl rematch at Kansas City on Monday night, 21-17. The Eagles trailed 17-7 at the half but won the second half – with a little help from some ham-handed Chiefs – 14-0 to steal a little Super Bowl revenge.

Philadelphia actually got out-gained by KC 336-238 but won the turnover battle 2-1, creating at least a +6 points differential.

Monday night was the fourth time this season the Eagles won a game while getting out-gained, including two weeks ago against Dallas and three weeks ago against Washington. And yet Philadelphia could be 10-0 if they hadn’t given that game away to the Jets.

At 9-1 overall, the Eagles lead the NFC by one game over 8-2 Detroit.

On the injury front, Buffalo is banged up in the defensive secondary. The Jets couldn’t take advantage of it, but Philadelphia’s a little better than the Jets.

These two teams last met four seasons ago, a 31-13 Eagles victory up in Buffalo. Carson Wentz quarterbacked Philadelphia that day against Allen for the Bills.

Common Opponents

These two teams have played five common opponents so far this season: the Patriots, Buccaneers, Jets, Commanders, and Dolphins. Philadelphia played those foes to 5-1 SU, 3-2-1 ATS, and +72 yards per game, Buffalo to 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, and +90 YPG.

NFL Betting Trends

Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS this season when favored by less than six points.

Totals Report

• The Unders are 8-3 in Bills games this season, which are averaging 44 total points.
• The totals are split 5-5 in Eagles games this season, which are averaging 48 points.
• The Unders are 98-66 (60 percent) in the NFL this season.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Philadelphia just won a big game on a big stage, which normally would lead us to consider them candidates for a letdown. But the Eagles own the better running game in this match-up – we loved those schemes with Swift Monday night – and the better run defense. And frankly, we trust Hurts more than Allen. And Buffalo’s banged up on defense. We’ll ride with Philadelphia on Sunday.