Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Recommended Bet

Buffalo Bills (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) at New England Patriots (1-5, 1-5)

Date/Time: 1 pm ET Sunday, Oct. 22

Where: Gillette Stadium

TV: CBS

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: Buff -8.5/NE +8.5

Money Line: Buff -450/NE +350

Over/Under Total: 41

New England owned the rivalry with Buffalo for about 20 years, but the worm’s turned toward the Bills since that Brady guy left the scene. Buffalo shoots to maintain that recent edge when these two AFL originals meet for the 126th time Sunday afternoon in Foxboro.

The Bills remain contenders for the conference championship, although they ain’t looked too good their last couple of times out. The Patriots, meanwhile, look terrible, and one begins to wonder if any life remains in this team.

NFL Betting Lines

The Week 7 NFL betting market opened Buffalo at -8.5 for Sunday at New England, with an over/under of right around 41. Both figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

Bills-Patriots NFL Betting Preview

Buffalo is coming off its second straight uninspiring performance, a 14-9 victory over the punchless Giants last Sunday night. The Bills, favored by 15.5 points, looked absolutely jet-lagged through three quarters and trailed New York, a team incapable of scoring a touchdown, 6-0. Buffalo rallied to take the lead with four minutes left, hung on by the skin of their teeth from there but totally whiffed ATS.

The Bills got out-gained by the Giants, which is hard to do these days, 317-297, gave up 132 yards on the ground, and lost the turnover battle 2-0. And that’s how you keep a lousy team like New York in a game.

Not too long ago, the Bills beat Las Vegas, Washington, and Miami back-to-back-to-back by a combined score of 123-33. But Buffalo then lost to Jacksonville in London 25-20, then barely escaped the Giants.

However, big-picture, we still consider the Bills a darn good team.

Meanwhile, New England lugs a three-game losing skid into Sunday after falling at the Raiders last week 21-17. The Patriots fell down 10-0 out of the gate, pulled to within 19-17 with three minutes left and got the ball back but took a sack-safety and came up just short ATS at +3.

New England got out-gained by Las Vegas 348-259.

We thought the Patriots showed some degree of competence when they opened this season with tough losses to Philadelphia and Miami, then beat the Jets. But New England’s lost its last three games to Dallas, New Orleans, and the Raiders by a combined score of 93-20.

On the injury front, the Patriots are a bit banged-up both along the offensive line and on defense. And that’s not good.

Bills-Patriots Recent History

Buffalo is 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS over the last seven meetings between these teams. Last year, the Bills swept the two games with New England by scores of 24-10 and 35-23. Buffalo covered that first meeting at Foxboro at -3.5, then covered at home at -8.

NFL Betting Trends

New England is 26-30 SU, 25-30-1 ATS since Tom Brady left the scene.

Home dogs are 14-25 SU, 17-20-2 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

The unders are 4-2 in Bills games this season, which are averaging 44 total points.

The unders are 5-1 in Patriots games this season, which are averaging 37 points.

After going 13-2 last week, the unders are 56-37 in the NFL this season.

The overs are 3-1 over the last four meetings between these teams.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Buffalo struggled through its last two games but remains a conference title contender. It’s a long season and even good teams stumble through tough stretches. New England, meanwhile, is a team that recently got outscored 79-0 from the last three quarters of the loss to the Cowboys into the second quarter of the loss to Raiders. And this team has actually regressed from earlier this season. We like the Bills here, playing on the road, where the spread’s a bit more amenable.