Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Pick 12/26/21

Buffalo Bills (8-6 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) at New England Patriots (9-5, 9-5), 12/26/21
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Dec. 26
Where: Gillette Stadium
TV: CBS
Point Spread: Pats -2.5
Total: 43.5
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The Big Game in the AFC East this season takes place Sunday in Foxboro when the first-place Patriots host the second-place Bills. New England can clinch the division title with a victory here, while Buffalo can tie the Patriots for the division lead if they can pull out the win. These teams just played a tough, close game two weeks ago in inclement weather, a New England victory as a short underdog. Now the Patriots are favored by a short number for this game. Which way are we going here with our free NFL betting pick?

NFL Betting Lines

The Week 15 NFL betting odds opened the Patriots as 1.5-point favorites over the Bills, with an over/under of right around 44. Early betting action then bumped the Pats to -2.5.

Bills Betting Preview

Buffalo just snapped a two-game mini-losing skid last week with a 31-14 home win over Carolina. The Bills scored the first 14 points of the game and led 17-8 at the half. Buffalo then scored the first seven points of the second half, let the Panthers get within 24-14 but tacked on a touchdown with two minutes left to secure the victory and the cover as a 14-point favorite. The Bills out-gained Carolina 312-275, although they also got out-rushed by the Panthers 151-119 and lost time of possession by a 31:29 split. So Buffalo has been out-gained by three of its last five opponents and out-rushed by three of its last five foes. Two weeks ago, the Bills trailed at Tampa Bay 24-3 at the half, rallied to force overtime but lost 33-27. And three weeks ago, Buffalo lost to this New England outfit 14-10. Also, the Bills are just 3-5-1 ATS over their last nine games, playing below weekly expectations on a regular basis.

At 8-6 overall, Buffalo trails the division-leading Patriots by one game and a tie-breaker in the AFC East. But the Bills also own the No. 7 spot in the AFC playoff standings by a tie-breaker over Baltimore.

Patriots Betting Preview

New England, meanwhile, just had a seven-game winning streak snapped by a 27-17 loss at Indianapolis last Saturday. The Patriots, opening a bit flat, trailed the Colts 17-0 at the half and 20-0 through three quarters. New England then pulled to within 20-17 with just over two minutes left but immediately gave up a long Jonathan Taylor touchdown run, ending the rally and sending the Patriots to their first defeat since mid-October. New England actually out-gained Indianapolis 365-275 but got out-rushed 226-81, lost the turnover battle 2-1, and had a punt blocked and returned for a Colts touchdown. So the Patriots have now out-gained seven of their last eight opponents and out-rushed five of their last eight foes. They’re also 7-1 ATS their last eight times out. At 9-5 overall, New England leads the AFC East by a game and a tie-breaker over second-place Buffalo. The Patriots also sit in the No. 2 spot in the AFC playoff standings, one game behind 10-4 Kansas City and a tie-breaker up on Tennessee.

Bills-Patriots Recent History

New England beat Buffalo 31 times out of 35 meetings from 2000-19 with that guy named Brady, but the Bills swept two games from the Brady-less Patriots last season. Then, as mentioned above, New England won in Buffalo in the snow and wind two weeks ago, 14-10.

The Patriots ran the ball 46 times that night, and the Bills just couldn’t stop them.

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NFL Betting Trends

• Home teams are 108-112 SU, 97-123 ATS in the NFL this season.
• Favorites are 137-85 SU, 106-116 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

Totals are split 7-7 in Bills games this season, which are averaging 45 total points. The Under is 8-6 in Patriots games this season, which are averaging 42 points. The Under is 122-100 (55 percent) in the NFL this season. The Under is 5-2 over the last seven meetings between these two teams.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Both these teams are averaging 121 yards per game on the ground, but New England gets most of its the old-fashioned way while a large chunk of Buffalo’s ground production comes from its quarterback. We prefer the Patriots way. Also, before last week’s loss, New England has held its previous five opponents to a total of 36 points. Also, following a down performance last week, we expect a rebound from the Patriots. So we like New England here, the home team at a short spread.