Bucs vs Vikings Betting Analysis & Spread Pick 9/10/23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Minnesota Vikings (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

NFL Football Week 1

Date/Time: Sunday September 10th, 2023. 1:00 PM (EST)

Where: U.S Bank Stadium Minneapolis, MN

TV: CBS

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: TB +6/MIN -6 (This is a GREAT game to tease! Find the best teaser odds here!)

Total: 45.5

The Minnesota Vikings will open their 2023 campaign by hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at U.S Bank Stadium on Sunday. Following a somewhat surprising 13-4 SU season last year, which featured an NFC North crown, Head Coach Kevin O’Connell looks for more magic in the 2nd year of his regime. The Vikings had a lot of changes over the offseason, which featured the departure of numerous veterans, including RB Dalvin Cook, WR Adam Thielen, CB Patrick Peterson, and others. However, the Minnesota staff believes a lot of their young talent will make them an even better team this year!

For the opening week contest against Tampa Bay, the Vikings will enter as 6-point favorites despite just covering once in their final eight games in 2022. However, this is not the Tampa Bay team that fans have witnessed in the last few years. QB Tom Brady is finally retired, and the Bucs appear poised to turn the offense to QB Baker Mayfield, who has been kicked off every major city in the country. RB Leonard Fournette no longer owns the backfield, and even star WR Mike Evans is having ongoing contract disputes, which could impact this opener. Needless to say, this Bucs team is poised for major regression this season.

Vikings new offense, same philosophy

The one thing Head Coach Kevin O’Connell did successfully in his first year in Minnesota was find ways to get the ball into the hands of the Vikings’ most talented players. WR Justin Jefferson was a target monster in 2022 and has the elite talent to continue torturing defenses. The Vikings acquired TE T.J. Hockenson at the end of last year and just signed him to a big deal to start this season. Additionally, Minnesota drafted a very gifted WR in Jordan Addison, who should support the air-raid backed by QB Kirk Cousins. Simply put, the Vikings should be just as dangerous, if not more potent, in the passing game this season.

Perhaps the only question mark on offense going into the season is the loss of RB Dalvin Cook. Admittedly, Cook appeared to be regressing in the Vikings backfield, and Minnesota elected to let him go. RB Alexander Mattison has shined in backup roles in the past but has never been a workhorse. Therefore, there are some concerns about Mattison’s ability to carry the load, and perhaps we will see more of RB Ty Chandler as the season progresses. However, I would reiterate that the ground game is not the focal point of this offense and will likely not yield any immediate danger in this week one contest against a tough Tampa Bay defense front. I expect the Vikings to continue to stretch the field vertically and attack Tampa Bay’s defense, where they are most vulnerable in the secondary.

Betting against Baker Mayfield

As a guy who lives in the Carolinas and has been forced to watch Baker Mayfield more than I care to admit, I am surprised that Mayfield will get another opportunity at a starting role to begin the 2023 campaign. After getting kicked out of Cleveland at the end of 2021, Mayfield started last season with the Carolina Panthers, who desperately needed a capable quarterback. However, Mayfield turned out to be a complete bust, going 1-5 SU as a starter, which was paired with a 1-5 mark ATS. The former Heisman Trophy winner tossed six touchdowns and had six interceptions to open the season in Carolina.

After Carolina made the decision to move on from their experimental quarterback, Mayfield got another opportunity with the Rams when QB Matthew Stafford’s season was shut down due to an injury. Once again, Mayfield disappointed, going 1-3 as a starter with four touchdowns and two picks. Now Mayfield gets another opportunity with a half-way depleted Bucs offense that could have minimal support in the run game with running backs Rachaad White and Sean Tucker. This once prolific Bucs offense has relied on the passing game in recent years, and they have talented receivers with Chris Godwin and Evans. However, I have absolutely no faith that Mayfield will be able to get them the ball, and I fear the offensive line problems may only make his play worse. If we simply go by the trends, fading Mayfield has been pure money, and that will be the case again this year!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay is 1-7 ATS in the last eight games
• Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in the last six games
• Tampa Bay has hit the “under” in 12 of the last 18 games
• Tampa Bay is 0-6 ATS in the last six games on the road
• Tampa Bay is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings against Minnesota
• Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in the last six games
• Minnesota is 12-4 SU in the last 16 games
• Minnesota has hit the “over” in seven of the last eight games
• Minnesota has hit the “over” in each of the last five games at home
• Minnesota is 14-6 SU in the last 20 games at home against Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Prediction

As I alluded to above, I have absolutely no faith in this Bucs offense with Mayfield at the helm. Against such a talented offense in Minnesota, I expect the Vikings to cruise.
Jay’s Pick: Take Minnesota -6