Bucs vs. Chiefs: Fade the Public or Pound the Over? Week 9 NFL Picks

by | Last updated Nov 4, 2024 | nfl

George Karlaftis Kansas City Chiefs

NFL Betting Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-0)

Sunday, November 4, 2024 | 8:15 PM ET | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Current Odds

Spread: Chiefs -9.5 (-110)
Total: 45.5 O/U (-110)
Moneyline: Buccaneers +350 / Chiefs -450

Line Movement: Opened Chiefs -8.5, moved to -9.5 with sharp money showing on KC

The Rundown

The undefeated Chiefs (7-0) host a Buccaneers team (4-4) that’s averaging a surprising 29.38 points per game but faces significant challenges. Kansas City’s defense, already allowing just 17.57 points per game, adds pressure specialist Joshua Uche from New England to a unit that’s dominated opponents. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay must overcome the absence of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, who account for 47% of their total receiving yards this season.

Team Analysis

Kansas City Chiefs (7-0)

The Chiefs’ defensive dominance continues to be the story of their season. Their efficiency metrics tell the tale:

  • Holding opponents to 3.53 yards per rush (2nd in NFL)
  • Generating a turnover on 12.8% of defensive drives
  • Allowing just 17.57 PPG while facing three top-10 offenses
  • Converting 46.2% of third downs (4th in NFL)

Recent Performance:

  • 7-point average margin of victory in last three games (27-20, 28-18, 26-13)
  • Held opponents under 250 total yards in 4 of last 5 games
  • Defense improves to 15.3 PPG allowed at home

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4)

Tampa Bay’s offensive production has been impressive but heavily reliant on their now-absent receivers:

  • Averaging 389.5 yards per game (4th in NFL)
  • Baker Mayfield: 15 TDs / 7 INTs, 7.7 yards per attempt
  • Running game averaging 5.06 YPC but only 25.9 attempts per game

Road Performance:

  • Averaging 33.7 PPG in road games
  • Defense allowing 341 passing yards per game away (31st in NFL)
  • +0.4 turnover differential in road games
Key Personnel Impact:

– Buccaneers missing 168 targets, 1,521 yards, and 12 TDs from 2023 with Evans/Godwin out
– Chiefs add Uche (21 sacks in last 28 games) to pressure package
– Tampa’s remaining WRs combined for just 31% of team’s receptions

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Statistical Breakdown

Key Efficiency Metrics:

  • Yards Per Point: KC 14.08 vs TB 13.26 (advantage: TB +0.82)
  • Yards Per Pass: KC 10.27 vs TB 10.24 (neutral)
  • Yards Per Rush: KC 3.92 vs TB 5.06 (advantage: TB +1.14)
  • Red Zone TD%: KC 58.3% vs TB 55.6%
  • 3rd Down Conversion: KC 46.2% vs TB 41.8%

Defensive Matchup

Kansas City’s defensive unit presents elite metrics across the board:

  • Passing: 212.71 yards allowed (7th)
  • Rushing: 82.29 yards allowed (2nd)
  • Pressure Rate: 28.4% (5th)
  • Red Zone Defense: 47.6% TD rate (3rd)

Tampa Bay’s offensive success rate drops 31% against top-10 defenses, averaging just 19.7 points in such matchups.

Trends to Watch

  • Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU in the last 8 meetings, but all with different personnel
  • Chiefs are 5-0 SU in their last 5 home games (average margin: +11.2)
  • Bucs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games
  • Chiefs 10-2-1 ATS in last 13 overall games
  • UNDER is 17-5 in Chiefs’ last 22 home games
  • OVER is 5-0 in Bucs’ last 5 games (average combined score: 61.4)

The Bottom Line

While Tampa Bay’s historical 6-2 SU record against KC is noteworthy, the current context heavily favors the Chiefs. Without Evans and Godwin (accounting for nearly 50% of their passing game), Tampa Bay faces a Chiefs defense that’s allowing just 15.3 PPG at home and adds another pass-rushing threat in Uche. The Bucs’ 31% decline in scoring against top-10 defenses particularly stands out.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 27, Buccaneers 16

Best Bets (Ranked by Confidence)

  1. Chiefs -9.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
    – KC covering by 11.2 PPG at home
    – TB averaging -9.7 margin vs top-10 defenses
  2. Under 45.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
    – Chiefs UNDER 17-5 at home
    – TB missing 47% of passing offense
  3. First Half Under 23 ⭐⭐
    – KC allowing 5.3 first quarter points

The combination of Tampa Bay’s depleted receiving corps, KC’s elite defense (now enhanced by Uche), and strong home field metrics supports laying the points. The under correlates strongly with KC’s home defensive performance (15.3 PPG allowed) and Tampa’s expected offensive regression without their top targets.

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