Buccaneers vs. Giants Prediction: Will the Under Hit in This NFC Clash?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6 SU, 6-3 ATS) vs. New York Giants (2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS)

NFL Football Week 12

Date/Time: Sunday, November 24th, 2024, 1:00PM (EST)

Where: MetLife Stadium East Rutherford, NJ

TV: CBS

Betting Odds

Point Spread: TB -4/NYG +4

Moneyline: Bucs -225/GMen +190

Total: 42.5

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After a week 11 bye, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will return to action this Sunday with a road trip against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. Following a promising 4-2 SU start to the season, the Buccaneers have lost four straight games, and the regression has primarily been attributed to injuries. In recent weeks, Tampa Bay’s promising passing attack lost both leading receivers, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, due to injuries. While Godwin was lost for the season, Evans (hamstring) could return this Sunday and give the Bucs a much better opportunity to snap their 4-game losing streak.

On the other side of the field, the New York Giants have dropped five straight games. The difference between the Bucs losing streak and the Giants is one has been injury related while the other has been performance related. In fact, Giants Head Coach Brian Daboll made the decision this week to bench starting QB Daniel Jones, who has failed to throw a single passing touchdown in 5 of the last seven games. As a result, Daboll will turn to former backup Tommy DeVito for another experimental quarterback role as the Giants front office tries to solve the long-term situation at the quarterback position.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Giants Betting Analysis

The reason the Giants are difficult to handicap is because the quarterback play has been so inconsistent for years now. However, this year’s Giants team has a lot of promising young talent in rookieWR Malik Nabers and emerging rookie RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. Tracy has shown bellcow capabilities and has totaled more than 300 yards rushing in the Giants last three games. Nabers has provided the elite talent at the receiving positions that the Giants have been missing for several years. However, those combinations are only as good as the play at quarterback. Without the ability to stretch the field, defenses are going to stack the box until proven they can be beaten over the top.

For this match-up against the Buccaneers, the Giants have a favorable match-up in the passing game. Tampa Bay’s pass defense ranks as the 3rd worst unit in the league, allowing 264 yards per game. Despite some flashes of success last year in a backup role, I still question if DeVito can exploit these weaknesses even with a better-receiving corps. The match-up conundrum grows more head-scratching when you consider the Giants’ defense plays really well against the pass. As everyone is aware, the Buccaneers’ offense relies heavily on the passing attack with QB Baker Mayfield and their talent in the passing game. However, the Giants’ secondary currently ranks as a top 5 passing defense, allowing just 184 yards per game. Therefore, this match-up is going to be very difficult for both offenses, and turnovers could be huge turning points for either side.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Giants Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in the last six games.
• Tampa Bay has hit the “over” in 6 of the last seven games.
• Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in the last five games as the betting favorite.
• Tampa Bay is 3-7 SU in the last ten games against the Giants.
• The Giants are 0-5 SU and 0-5 ATS in the last five games.
• The Giants have hit the “under” in 8 of the last 11 games.
• The Giants are 1-6 SU in the last seven games at home.
• The Giants are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 games against the Buccaneers.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Giants Betting Prediction

I’m not a big fan of betting on inconsistent teams, and that is definitely the case in this match-up on both sides of the field. With that being said, I do believe the defenses will have the upper hand on both sides of the football. I expect the Giants to ride the ground game heavily, and I believe that pace will help limit scoring opportunities, which also favors the defenses. As a result, I believe the “under” is the play here.

Jay’s Pick: Take the under 42.5