Can the Buccaneers Upset the Eagles? NFL Week 4 Picks and Insights

A Threeway with Philadelphia

Three of the different methods I use to handicap games kicked out the same play this week.

WF1 (Wrong Fav) says take Tampa Bay +2′.
WF1 is 4-8 overall and 0-3 on home teams (like the Bucs this week.)

WF2 says take Tampa Bay +2′.
WF2 is 3-6 overall and the same on home teams, 3-6.

When both methods say take the same team in the NFL this year, the record is 0-3.

That’s three different systems saying take Tampa Bay, and all three have losing records.
Two are at 0-3, 0%, and the third is a 67% Fade.
It was very easy for me to see where my money is going on Sunday.

Let’s check some basics.

Both teams are 2-1, SU and ATS.
The Eagles are 1-0 ATS on the road, and Tampa Bay is 1-0 ATS at home.
No edges in any of those numbers.

How about strength of schedule?
Massey has Philadelphia at #6, meaning the 6th toughest schedule faced thus far.
Tampa Bay is at #25.

Bet your Week 4 NFL picks for FREE! Deposit $100 to $500, use bonus code PREDICTEM and you’ll receive a dollar for dollar matching real cash bonus at Betnow Sportsbook! (<–Must go through link!)

Let’s look at the games within their schedules.
Philly has beaten Green Bay and New Orleans. Both of those opponents are off to a 2-1 start this season and look pretty good.
The Eagles lone loss came against the 1-2 Falcons at home in Philadelphia, by one point. With a little over a minute left in the game, the Eagles went into the abominable prevent defense.
The “Bend but don’t break” strategy allowed Kirk Cousins to easily complete FOUR straight passes for FOUR straight first downs, getting the Falcons all the way down to the Philadelphia 12-yard line.
With just 43 seconds left in the game, the prevent defense performed as expected, preventing the Eagles from getting a win when Cousins hit London for a touchdown in the end zone.
Some coaches never learn.

Tampa Bay has beaten Washington and Detroit, both 2-1. From a quality of opponent POV the wins are similar to the two wins by Eagles. But there’s a huge difference in the two opponents these teams lost to.

Philly came from ahead to lose a close game in the final seconds against Atlanta, but Tampa Bay lost to the offensively challenged Denver Broncos.
At home in Tampa.
By a score of 26-7.
Denver came into the game averaging just 13 PPG and scored twice that in the Bucs home stadium.

The Eagles blew a lead at home with under a minute to go, but the Bucs were never competitive in their loss. Denver jumped out to a 14-point lead and never looked back.

Tampa Bay was held scoreless in three of four quarters, managing just seven points by the end of the game.

The Bucs lost a game in which the opposing quarterback didn’t even throw a touchdown.

They surrendered 47 rushing to Bo Nix, and now they have Jalen Hurts coming to town. If Nix can get 47 Hurts can double that. (Maybe not double it, but certainly easily surpass it. I’m going to look at rushing yards Ov for Hurts and if I get a number I like I’ll post the play in the forum section.)

The Eagle’s offense is second in the NFL at 411.7 YPG, while Tampa Bay’s defense is near the bottom of the league at 371.3 YPG.
Ya gotta like those stats in support of this play.
And one other note – Baker Mayfield was sacked SEVEN times last week. That’s not an offensive line, that’s a sieve.

Sunday’s game plan and meal plan for me? Philadelphia minus the points, and to chow on while watching my money ride – a cheesesteak, of course, loaded with peppers and onions (and REAL cheese, none of that cheese whiz crap.)

When to Buy Recommendation:

The line opened at Philadelphia -2′, a little low in my estimate. I see a better chance of this going to -3 by kickoff rather than dropping, so I bought it today at -2′, -107.

Recap: 1-1
Record: 2-6.6
Review: My revenge bet teaser against the Steelers worked out, as well as my revenge bet against the Steelers two weeks ago. Once QB Herbert left the game with an injury, my wager was a goner. Didn’t matter in the end as San Fran somehow lost to the Rams.

Teasers are sucker bets

, take it from someone who ran a sports book. They’re very tempting though and I fell for it last week, a mistake I hope I don’t repeat over the rest of this season.

With a morning loss my record was sitting at 1-5.5 for the NFL so I was in desperate need for a winner in my next game to avoid a five game deficit in the W/L column.
Fortunately, the Chiefs saved me.

And now, the dreaded “Good news/ Bad news.”
The good news:
The system that gave me KC is now 0-3 in the NFL, 5-8 in college football and 3-6 in the WNBA, a combined 8 – 17 which makes for a 17-8 Fade at 68% with a 25 game sample.
The bad news:
Nothing qualifies this week in college or pro football.

Hopefully, next week . . .