Browns vs. Raiders Predictions & Picks | NFL Week 4

Cleveland Browns (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
NFL Football Week 4
Date/Time: Sunday, September 29, 2024 at 4:25PM EDT
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
TV: CBS

The Cleveland Browns come to Allegiant Stadium on Sunday for a week four AFC matchup with the Las Vegas Raiders. Both teams enter this game at 1-2, making this a crossroads in the season for each team, with the winner restoring hope at 2-2 and the loser starting to see the writing on the wall at 1-3. The Browns dropped their second of two home games on Sunday, falling to the Giants, 21-15, as nearly touchdown favorites. The Raiders suffered a similar fate in falling short in what seemed like a winnable home game, losing to the Panthers, 36-23, in an embarrassing setback. Which of these two teams can right the ship at 2-2 and breathe some life back into their seasons?

Sorting Through the Dysfunction

First off, maybe the Raiders and Browns winning one of three is pretty standard, and if this had occurred from weeks 10-12, no one would bat an eyelash. But since it’s weeks 1-3, we tend to make overly-concrete takeaways. Still, there are some things happening on both sides that create alarm, and rightfully so. Quarterback play is at the top of the list. For the Raiders, there has been talk of going back to Aidan O’Connell as Gardner Minshew struggles in spots. And while Minshew will pop off from time to time with the big aerial day, there are some stinkers in the middle of that. And after seeing O’Connell last season, the prospects of him taking over aren’t that great. Cleveland is stuck with the shell of Deshaun Watson, who had his best game of the season last week, connecting well with Amari Cooper, who returns to face his old team this week. But at still under 200 yards, Watson hasn’t really gotten this air-game fired up as of yet.

The Raiders have big talent, especially with Davante Adams and rising rookie tight end Brock Bowers. But iffy quarterback play, a dicey line, and a running game that has been awful make the things they do well count for less. At the same time, the Raiders defense wasn’t awful in allowing 22 to the Chargers and 23 to the Ravens in their only win of the season. It’s still hard to look at what happened last week as some aberration, but more like the dam bursting, giving up a big day to what had been a sterile Carolina offense, albeit with Andy Dalton taking over behind center. To not be able to get any kind of running game going against that defense, while not being able to stop anything created a five-alarm fire in the locker-room, with head coach Antonio Pierce saying things better improve or heads are going to roll.

What Can the Browns Do About It?

If looking for any silver lining for the Browns, you could say despite all their woes, the “D” has only allowed a total of 34 points in their last two games. And it’s true; you can expect their defense to play a big role in some games. They are also dealing with some personnel issues, with Myles Garrett’s status now not looking good. That’s not to mention their issues on the other side of the ball, with their offensive line having taken some hits and TE David Njoku having missed time. But the decent form of their defense in the last few weeks could also be a result of playing the Giants last week and the dysfunctional Jaguars in the previous game. In week one, they were torched by Dallas, the last time the Cowboys looked good. And not that this version of the Raiders can be depended on to draw out the worst of the Cleveland “D,” I still wouldn’t want to bank on that part of the Cleveland formula for success this week.

Subscribing to Urgency

Playing the urgency-game in the NFL has a lot of drawbacks, especially in Week 4 dealing with below-average teams. At the same time, if you look at the way the Raiders responded to coach Pierce last season, playing well down the stretch after looking dead in the water, it’s clear he has some effect on these guys. And after last week was as “scorched earth” as he’s gotten since becoming head coach. Jobs are on the line. This is a buy-low spot on the Raiders where you’re hoping the ugliness of last week isn’t so much a representation of who they are, but that the backlash to that will vault them to another level this week. And even if that doesn’t fully materialize, maybe they land somewhere in the middle, which could be good enough at home against the Browns.

There are truly some issues you can’t just shake off if you’re the Raiders. Getting pumped up this week isn’t going to make their ground-game good or get them to stop making flubs across all areas of their defense, which is also dealing with personnel issues that are undetermined this early in the week and bear watching. It also isn’t going to guarantee a good game for Minshew and his targets. It just seems that there’s a chance it could to a greater extent than what exists on the other sideline. What needs to happen to make Watson something different than what we’ve seen since he came to Cleveland? What magic dust can they sprinkle on a battered O-line? Do you picture any big games coming from Jerome Ford or anyone else out that backfield? Can this defense keep it together without their top dog?

Lay the Small Number on the Home Favorite

Neither choice in this spot is going to fill anyone with that warm and fuzzy feeling. This is a game where there’s a 40-point range of outcomes, none of which would really register much surprise. And while it’s not easy to say after last week, I think the Raiders are more likely to bounce back in a winnable spot against a team that has a lot on their plates, as well. I think Minshew can get enough business done between Adams and Bowers to keep them ahead in a game that looks to be a low-scoring grind. I’ll take the Raiders.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Las Vegas Raiders minus one point.