Browns vs. Bengals Week 16 ATS Prediction and Key Matchups

Cleveland Browns (3-11 SU, 4-10 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (6-8 SU, 8-6 ATS)
NFL Football Week 16
Date/Time: Sunday, December 22, 2024 at 1PM ESt
Where: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
TV: Fox

The Cleveland Browns make the in-state trip to take on their AFC North division rival Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday in week 16 action. A 37-27 win over Tennessee on Sunday was the Bengals’ second win in a row as they attempt to keep their faint playoff hopes alive. They take on a Browns team they already beat this season in an attempt to win their third straight this week. The Browns fell on Sunday to the Chiefs,  21-7, their third loss in a row. But with Cincinnati’s defense still giving up a lot of production, maybe Jameis Winston and this high-flying aerial offense can do some damage this week. Let’s break it down!

What the First Game Tells Us

In week 7, the Bengals were able to go into Cleveland and pin a 21-14 loss on their AFC North rivals. Still, with 7 of those points coming on a kick return, the Cincy offense wasn’t exactly cooking that game. However, that game was before Jameis Winston was brought in to start, and that really sheds a different light on this matchup. Cincy will invariably need to produce more offenses while finding answers for offenses that are quite different from what they saw in week seven.

Is Cleveland Still Dangerous?

When Winston first got behind center for the Browns, it paid off right away, first with a big win over Baltimore, a win over Pittsburgh, and games in between where they were making things tough on opponents. With 21 combined points of scoring in their last two games, however, they have lost their little X-factor appeal. Still, those games came against Pittsburgh and Kansas City, two teams who didn’t get to where they are by allowing offenses to throw the ball all over the field. In addition, Winston has been stripped of some of his firepower, with Cedric Tillman and David Njoku missing games.

Maybe Winston can get one or both of those pieces back in time for this game. But even if he doesn’t, the holes within this Cincinnati defense offer Cleveland some offensive opportunities they weren’t afforded the last few weeks. When you see Tennessee and Dallas able to do things on offense against this “D,” there’s no reason to think we don’t see one of those games where Winston is putting up numbers and hitting the scoreboard with enough regularity to give the Bengals’ backers some consternation.

Edges for Cincinnati

The Bengals have a lot of issues that have taken what was a perennial conference contender and rendered them a team that needs a lot to go right to sneak into the postseason. That defense is a threat to disrupt the entire operation at the drop of a hat. But with Joe Burrow dishing it out to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, with RB Chase Brown becoming a star in this offense, the Browns are going to be seeing a level of offensive potency that they haven’t been seeing in this latest stretch of games. And let’s be honest, the Cleveland defense wasn’t so good, even in those less demanding spots. Now you take a Cincy offense that is at home, in a little bit of a groove, and obviously still trying to save the season. That’s a lot to throw at a Cleveland defense that might not be able to come up with a ton in this spot.

With Cincy, you have a star QB in Joe Burrow with known talent around him. These are established stars in the league, operating within an offensive system that is proven to deliver. They’re also at the most-urgent state a team can be in—late in a season trying to continue winning to avoid being eliminated. Not that Cleveland doesn’t have an agenda with its coaches and players, including a veteran like Winston, who is trying to breathe some life into his career. But their season is effectively over. In that sense, Cincy has the more compelling list of reasons why they’d want to win this.

What to Expect

It’s got the highest total of any game on the board for a reason. It might be one of those games where the script is almost conveniently easy to predict, which, therefore, equals a game where the offense won’t be thriving. That’s hard to imagine with the Bengals being so offense-heavy right now with their defense out there flailing at times. While Cleveland’s offense and this whole backyard-style of Winston isn’t going to work in every spot as we’ve plainly seen in the last handful of weeks, I expect it to take some hold this weekend, though I’d like to see if Tillman or Njoku is back for this game. Even if not, this is precisely the kind of spot where you’d be fancied to like Winston and this offense.

Take the Points

It’s a bet where it’s hard not to feel torn. On one hand, Cincy is doing better, and they have a ton to play for. And for all this talk about how the Browns are so much more dangerous, 21 combined points in their last two doesn’t really speak to that. I just feel it’s dangerous waiting for teams to be themselves again when it’s clear that form is unreachable. And I feel the Browns offense can thrive, but just in the right circumstances. Being in a familiar division setting against a bad defense might be one of them. I sense Winston and the Browns can get enough done to keep this one within reach. I’ll take the Browns.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Cleveland Browns plus 7 points.