Broncos vs. Seahawks Week 1 Predictions & Betting Picks

The Denver Broncos come to the northwest for a week one showdown with the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field on Sunday. These teams are both dealing with a lot of change and want to get things off to a good start. For the Seahawks, they are under new leadership with Pete Carroll retiring and former Ravens defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald now at the helm. The Broncos, meanwhile, will be starting rookie first-rounder Bo Nix at quarterback as they look for something to supercharge their offense and team.

Getting a Lay of the Land

I wouldn’t be so quick to write off the Broncos, a team that went 8-9 last season with a whole lot of things going wrong with Sean Payton’s squad. It’s not that hard to see some things coming together on both sides of the ball and them upgrading some this season. Some of that can also be said for a Seattle team coming off two straight 9-8 seasons with a list of problems that would have sunk a lot of teams. In the end, you get two scrappy teams who sometimes get a lot out of what they have.

For the Seahawks, you have the continuing comeback story of Geno Smith, now a proven quality starter in this league, in this amazing second act. DK Metcalf is still a commanding presence, Tyler Lockett (questionable) still a serviceable weapon, and rising Jaxon Smith-Njigba helps lead a deep group of receivers. Kenneth Walker is a weapon out of the backfield. However, the real upgrades might happen on the other side of the ball, where we see a lot of weapons for head coach MacDonald to apply his defensive handiwork and whip that unit into shape.

If the Seattle defense comes out for this opener at home ready to take that next step, it could make for a rough debut for the rookie Nix. The Broncos haven’t seen a rookie start at QB since John Elway and an on-point home Seattle defense could provide a difficult entrance-exam for the talented rookie. Either way, we have two teams here who should be eager to get things off to a fast start.

Breaking Down the Game

Some interesting matchup components could decide the tenor of this game. The Denver offensive line is going to be dealing with one of the top pass-rushing teams in the NFC, with Seattle having come a long way the last few seasons in that category. This could also be a spot against a shaky Seattle run-defense for Denver back Javonte Williams to signal that this is the season where he takes a step forward, as he is now healthy. Him playing well would really help Nix and the passing-game. Another key matchup will be Denver CB Patrick Surtain, II. who will presumably be on DK Metcalf. Surtain’s presence will be huge, but with Seattle’s passing game being pretty deep, we’ll see how the rest of a dicey corner package fares for the Broncos’ defense.

A lot of this could come down to the Seattle defense. It seems like between their pass-rush and the threats they have throughout their secondary, they should be in good shape. But we need to see if MacDonald was able to get the run-stop in order because if not, Denver can open up some things with Williams or even with Nix, who has some nifty feet when the opportunity arises.

What Each Team Needs to Do

Denver needs to put Nix in a spot where he can thrive. Against a Seattle defense on the rise that is now under the stewardship of one of the brightest young defensive minds in the league, that won’t be easy, especially on the road in this loud stadium in week one. On defense, they will need more than the presence of Surtain, II. to curtail the high-flying Seattle offense. But if Nix can be efficient and Williams can have a big game against what still might be a dicey Seattle run-stop, it’s not that hard to imagine them stealing a win in this spot. I still have this strange feeling that they have another gear somewhere within them.

I’m just not sure it’s the greatest matchup for the Broncos. A rookie QB going into this building to face a “D” that is aggressive and can pounce on mistakes might not go well. Nix doesn’t have the greatest stuff around him, with a line that still has much to prove and a receiver crew that is pretty thin behind Courtland Sutton, who has been underwhelming in recent seasons. An opportunistic Seattle defense might be in a good spot to showcase its fangs in game one. Of course, Seattle isn’t a foolproof proposition. They can come out flat. Certain dependable recipes on offense might have lost their punch. And Denver might have been closer to being good than some of us suspected.

Lay the Points on the Home Favorite

Experience and home-field could be pretty thin premises upon which to base a pick. But with Nix making his debut, it could come into play. I think the combination of the timing, locale, noise, and nature of the Seattle defense combine to make this a less-than-ideal spot for the debuting Nix. If there were some other standout part of the team, maybe you could see it a different way. And while the “D” got better last season and they still managed to win eight games, the Denver offense is in a state of transition and their defense can be soft in spots. Even with new leadership in Seattle, I see them as being more likely to hit the ground running in week one. I’ll take the Seahawks.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Seattle Seahawks minus 6 points.

Be sure to check out Professional Handicapper Richard Dressler’s “Battling the Books” articles in our sports betting section!