Broncos vs. Saints: Best Bet for Thursday Night Football

Denver Broncos (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS)
NFL Football Week 7
Date/Time: Thursday Night Football, October 17, 2024 at 8:15 PM EDT
Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: Prime Video

The Denver Broncos come to the Superdome for a Thursday Night Football showdown with the New Orleans Saints. Both teams are entering the short week coming off losses. Denver saw their three-game winning streak come to an end at the hands of the Chargers, 23-16. They are now at 3-3 and look to nose above .500 this week in a tough road spot. The Saints, however, are mired in a funk, sponging their fourth straight loss on Sunday in a 51-27 loss to the Buccaneers. Back at home again this week, they look to get back on the right track. Who should we get behind on Thursday?

What Happened to the Saints?

This is not an ideal time to be facing a short week, even if the Saints are at home. While on Sunday, there was some nice play in spots from fill-in rookie QB Spencer Rattler, it was otherwise a rock-bottom day for the Saints, giving up 51 to the Buccaneers in an unsightly loss. Rattler’s form got ragged by game’s end and the defense almost seemed to give up. It would be one thing if this was just how it is and how it has been. But when compared to how the Saints opened up the season looking like contenders through two games, this four-game slide has them landing in this week seven spot against Denver with a decided thud.

Again, not all is hopeless in this week’s context. A floundering defense likely won’t get pushed to its brink like it did last week when facing Bo Nix and this Denver offense. But whereas Rattler was at times able to make things happen against a downward-trending Tampa defense, this might not be the ideal spot to see him thrive against a usually-solid Denver defense. This Saints’ offensive line is in trouble, and on top of all that, they might be without top receiver Chris Olave, who went down with a concussion against the Bucs on Sunday.

What Can Denver Do About It?

Herein lies the key to this game. It’s one thing to point out the issues of the Saints, but let’s face it, this Denver offense can hit some pretty low depths themselves. By the end of Sunday’s game, Bo Nix looked on paper to have one of his better games with two TD throws, making decent use of his receivers for a change. But it was a case of too little, too late, as most of it came in the fourth quarter. Outside of a few impressive moments leading to that, the first three quarters were not inspiring on the offensive side of the ball. And while the Chargers were getting off to a 23-0 lead, the offense was absolutely impotent.

The Broncos are hoping their defense travels in this difficult out-of-conference road spot on the short week. After going on a nice run where they saw their defense being both stout and game-changing with big plays, the unit fell flat on Sunday. Still, with the offense being in the dumps for three quarters, they didn’t get any support and were still decent. The point is that whatever New Orleans is dealing with doesn’t get inherited as glory for the Broncos. A Denver backer can be justified in licking his chops for this matchup, but the Saints and their reeling defense aren’t getting the worse matchup in terms of maybe stopping the bleeding.

Deferring to Functionality

Last week didn’t go well, but with a three-game win streak leading up to that, Denver was showing they are making a lot of what they have. Not everything is peachy and we saw Patrick Surtain, II. leave the game last week, a development that will need to be monitored leading up to this. And if that Denver defense isn’t performing at a high level, they can truly stink it out in stretches. But despite their issues on offense, Bo Nix is getting better and more comfortable and him being ahead in the learning curve of Rattler gives their offense an edge, at least in that area. We see Courtland Sutton coming alive in recent games. Still, even with the issues at quarterback and with Olave looking dicey, the Saints still have some pieces like Alvin Kamara, Rashid Shaheed, and others who can produce.

Granted, the Saints could luck out here in the sense that the Broncos are no surefire proposition and if a low-end version of Denver surfaces for this short-week road game, the Saints can maybe mask some of their deficiencies at least for this one game and sort of make it work. It’s just that they’re approaching a stage in their season where you could almost say some parts of them are broken. When you take how all the magic has been stripped from their offense, the injuries, and their defense bottoming out last week, it paints an ugly picture. On top of that, assuming it’s Rattler again, you’re taking a rookie QB who had some costly mistakes last week and pitting him against an opportunistic Denver defense that has shown an aptitude of getting after opposing quarterbacks.

Take the Small Road Dog

After watching Denver last week, one can understand the lack of comfort taking them in this spot. It’s just that the flip side of that coin is even less-promising. Offensive explosive-potential aside, the Saints are running into a defense that might render their lone remaining attribute a bit moot this week. This game could develop into a slog, as the low total will attest, but I suspect Denver is getting a few decent things done on offense late as they cross the line ahead for the win and cover on Thursday. I’m going with the Broncos.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Denver Broncos plus 1.5 points.