Broncos vs. Chiefs Week 10 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Denver Broncos (5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS)
NFL Football Week 10
Date/Time: Sunday, November 10, 2024 at 1PM EST
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
TV: CBS

The Denver Broncos make the trip to Arrowhead for a Sunday AFC West divisional battle against the Kansas City Chiefs. The two-time defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs enter week ten unbeaten, coming off a tough overtime win over the Buccaneers on Monday Night Football, 30-24. They now return home to take on a Denver team that has exceeded expectations this season but still fell hard last week in a 41-10 blowout loss to the Ravens. And it doesn’t get a ton easier with another conference contender lying in wait as the Broncos again take to the road. Who should we get behind in this divisional showdown from Arrowhead?

Time to Get Real About Denver

Even as they did well to begin the season at 5-3, one had to suspect a coming-down-to-earth period for the Broncos, especially with this brutal patch—having to face both Baltimore and the Chiefs in consecutive road games. And part one of that equation went as badly as can be expected, getting throttled by the Ravens. Maybe in a more familiar divisional setting, the Broncos can do a little better this week. And not that they have wind in their sails on the heels of getting slayed by the Ravens, but the Chiefs are coming off the short week on the heels of a draining overtime win on MNF.

I’m still unsure that now is the time to start shoveling dirt on Denver. And despite a still-decent won-loss record, it’s not like people are getting carried away high-rating the Broncos where the narrative needs to be reeled in. Still, one at least has to entertain the chance that their early successes were based on who they were playing—bad teams or ones who were dealing with different things the weeks they happened to be playing Denver. Not that suddenly getting blown out by the Ravens confirms anything, but it’s enough to make you wonder if the Broncos are better built to exploit weak teams than they are in outplaying good teams.

Time to Catch the Chiefs Sleeping?

Kansas City has failed to cover their last two spreads after starting off the season with five covers in their first six games. They are still undefeated and in an ideal postseason seeding situation, but is it possible we’re entering that midseason stretch where the two-time defending champions start to show some of that regular season apathy that we’ve seen spring up during the Chiefs’ big title run over recent seasons? They’re not in a dissimilar spot than they were in the last few weeks, laying a decent-sized number against a compromised opponent. They built up a buffer zone in their division. They’re coming off the short week of an overtime game where it briefly looked like Patrick Mahomes had gotten injured seriously, though it seems early in the week that he just rolled his ankle and sprained it slightly. But who’s to say this all doesn’t converge in a way that makes it so we don’t see a Chiefs team really pressing the issue and going all out on Sunday?

Can the Broncos Take Advantage?

It’s not a very positive or proactive outlook when the main reason you like a team is because you suspect their opponent might not be at their peak. The Broncos are going to need to come up with something besides that. One thing that might not really matter much but still seems noteworthy is that despite these teams occupying very different stations in life in recent seasons, the Broncos have generally given the Chiefs pretty good games. But this is Denver rookie QB Bo Nix’s first go-around with the Chiefs, and we’ll see what he and this offense can come up with on Sunday.

Not that the Baltimore defense was even playing that well, but I think it’s fair to wonder if Nix and this Broncos offense need very specific conditions in which to thrive. After seeing Nix have some rough outings against some of the better teams and defenses he has faced, one wonders how he will perform in this road-spot against a Kansas City defense that usually delivers, especially at home. And not that it’s all on Nix. But he is a rookie and doesn’t have a ton upon which he can lean—with the sporadic good showings of lead back Javonte Williams, along with an aerial crew that is basically Courtland Sutton and a bunch of role guys.

And not that one bad performance undoes all the good things the Denver defense has done this season, but they really had no answers for Baltimore last week—either through the air or on the ground. We will need to monitor CB Patrick Surtain’s status leading up to game day, but his return to practice on Tuesday was promising. It’s still hard to look at the teams Denver has played this season and not figure that, at the very least, their defense was generally being put in spots where it was easier to look good. This game should give us a better idea if they’re built to thrive against offenses that aren’t either in the dumps or dealing with major personnel issues the week they play Denver.

Take the Points

There is this sneaking suspicion that we’re looking at a time for the Broncos where the wheels could come off a bit with this road stretch against the cream of the AFC. But it is a divisional game where the Broncos can play a little over their heads. I suspect their defense and some general fatigue and wear on the Chiefs’ part will come together to make this a halfway-competitive game where the Broncos get out of Arrowhead with the cover on Sunday. I’ll take the Broncos.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Denver Broncos plus 8 points.