Broncos vs. Buccaneers Week 3 Predictions & Betting Picks

Denver Broncos (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
NFL Football Week 3
Date/Time: Sunday, 22, 2024, at 1PM EDT
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, Florida
TV: Fox

The Denver Broncos take the trip to the Sunshine State to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday in a week three showdown at Raymond James Stadium. Tampa is off to a fast start after they followed their dominant week one win over Washington with an upset road win on Sunday against Detroit. With two quick wins and two covers, they now return home for what seems like a winnable spot against the 0-2 Broncos. On Sunday, Denver found the going pretty rough in a 13-6 loss to the Steelers, managing only two fourth-quarter field goals. Will they thrive in what might be an easier matchup against Tampa, or will the Bucs continue to roll?

Rush to Judgment on Nix

Early returns on Nix might not be so positive, but it’s worth considering a lot of the other factors at play. Part of that equation could be starting his career with a demanding road-spot in Seattle, followed by having to face the aggressive Pittsburgh defense last week. That’s a tough two-week stretch to evaluate a quarterback just starting his career. And even in the Pittsburgh game, we saw him completing some nice longer passes, just without the continuity to make it stick. In the interests of matchups, we could be looking at one here that suits Nix and this offense a little better. Not that it’s some kind of breeze to face this “D,” as we saw them put a serious crimp in the Detroit offensive flow last week, especially in the first half. But it’s still a defense that can be gotten to, especially through the air. And while Denver has no stars in this aerial offense, with the possible exception of alleged number-one receiver Courtland Sutton, they do have a wide variety of contributors who, if nothing else, can maybe run this Tampa back-seven a little ragged.

Still, with two INTs in each of his first two games and no touchdowns through the air, taking an opposing view to Nix and these Broncos might not be the worst move, especially when countered by Tampa’s offense, run expertly through two weeks by resurgent QB Baker Mayfield. The avenues for success with this Denver group seem few—a run-game led by Javonte Williams, who hasn’t shown that top form since his injury and a passing-game where some major optimism is needed to project success. Still, if it were to happen, this wouldn’t be the worst possible spot, as some quarterbacks are just going to have good days against this Tampa “D” this season.

A Case for Denver

If you take some of the life Nix showed at points last week and project it against a worse defense, you can maybe see him getting some scoring drives going. We’ve also seen a pretty good Denver defense through two weeks, with neither Seattle nor the Steelers really getting into a groove against them. They led against Seattle on the road at halftime and covered the spread and then lost a one-score game to the Steelers. With those results occurring as almost nothing went right for the Broncos and their rookie quarterback shows that they’re not terrible even as they’re bottoming-out on offense. What happens if they catch a few breaks, get a better matchup, and manage to string together some success?

But Not So Fast…

Any thoughts of this Tampa defense being easy pickings haven’t really materialized yet. Their 37-20 win over Washington in week one wasn’t even as close as the score shows, with Daniels getting very little through the air. And while we saw Jared Goff at times pick this secondary apart in the second half last week, he was picked off twice and had a pretty rough day overall. Holding Detroit to 16 at home is pretty darned good, while only allowing that home-offense to get into the end zone once on the afternoon.

It’s hard to still not marvel at Mayfield’s revival in Tampa, with him throwing for a TD and running one in against Detroit. He had to soldier through 4.5 sacks from Aidan Hutchinson, all the while keeping Tampa in the hunt. The defense allowed some production and had some anxious moments, but keeping Detroit off the board in the final quarter was key. We’ve seen Chris Godwin already step up with two big games, and Mike Evans had two TDs in their week one win. Rachaad White can be productive in the backfield, as they also work in rookie Bucky Irving to give them a little more explosiveness in that area. You have a QB who despite some issues, is a pretty good starter, two receivers who would be a lot of teams’ number-one guy, and a running-game that has to be respected. On the other sideline, well, you don’t have those things.

Lay the Number

I have a feeling that when I’m watching this game, I’d rather defer to Tampa’s superior offense and the positive signs seen from their defense in the first two weeks of the season. Otherwise, I’m basing a pick on some vague notion that this Denver offense could wake up in what is a tricky out-of-conference road spot or the idea that their scrappy defense can make this one a stinker where they can sneak in there and cover the spread. I just prefer the more proactive side where you don’t need all these other stars to align like Denver does. I think Tampa should be able to move the ball, at least enough to create some separation from a Denver offense that can’t be seen as being too bankable in this spot. I’ll take the Bucs.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus 7 points.