Broncos vs. Bengals Predictions, Picks & Odds: NFL Week 17

Denver Broncos (9-6 SU, 11-4 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8 SU, 9-6 ATS)
NFL Football Week 17
Date/Time: Saturday, December 28, 2024, at 4:30 PM EST
Where: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
TV: NFL Net

The Denver Broncos come out to Ohio for a high-stakes AFC showdown with the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday. Denver is coming off the long week, and they’re hoping some extra rest helped as they approach the home stretch of the season. Last Thursday, leading the Chargers in a possible win that could clinch their playoff spot, they got caught and lost 34-27. They take to the road to face a Cincy team that has seen the season not go according to plan before kicking things into another gear with this latest three-game win streak they’re on coming into this week. On Sunday, they beat the Browns at home, 24-6. Again, they are home this week as they try to keep their hopes alive.

Playoff Ramifications

Motivation is high for both teams, though each faces a very different road to the playoffs. The Bengals’ recent win-streak has enabled them to stay in the hunt, though their overall chances remain faint, needing to win their last two games against the Broncos and Steelers, while getting a lot of help from others. For the Broncos, between their come-from-ahead loss against the Chargers last week and the rest of the results from the AFC in week 16 not shaking out their way, they’ve taken a near-certain playoff future and made it a bit dicey. While a win in either of their last two games will seal it, they face a hot Cincy squad on the road this week, in addition to the Chiefs the next week, who they hope will be resting their starters. All told, I’d expect both teams to be at a state of maximum urgency for this one.

Watch out for Cincinnati

Again, this hasn’t been a good season, starting at 1-4 and 4-8 at one point. But you could always sense that somewhere within them was the old Bengals and we’ve seen that lately with some better play from Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase continuing to do his thing, along with Tee Higgins getting more into the swing of things. The growth of RB Chase Brown has given this offense a different edge. But alas, it’s not really the offense that landed them in this predicament, even if they haven’t always played at an optimal level this season.

I’m not sure how much comfort I’d find in the Bengals allowing only six points to the Browns last week. You could maybe say they’ve been a little better during this three-game winning streak overall, but last week was the only time you could say they really looked good. Most of this season has seen them floundering on this side of the ball, allowing swelled-up point totals. Granted, the 53 they allowed in the last three games pales to the 113 points they allowed in the three games leading up to that. But playing Dallas, Tennessee, and Cleveland in their last three games maybe painted a faulty image. Against Denver, things might look a bit different.

Denver: Extra Dangerous This Week?

Earlier in the season, when they were working in new quarterback Bo Nix, the Broncos got the tag of a resourceful team that is good on defense. And that’s still true and a big part of how the Broncos won 9 of 12 games leading into last week’s loss. But we also see a team that, in the last five games, has scored 165 combined points. Against this Cincy defense could be a time where we see Nix and his weapons help shake off the disappointment from last week.

For some, the disparity on offense will speak loudly when delving into this game. On the Cincy sideline are stalwarts like Burrow, Chase, and Higgins. Meanwhile, the Broncos have a rookie QB, a run-game that often times doesn’t make much of a mark on things, and a receiver crew consisting of Courtland Sutton and a bunch of guys looking to make their reputation in this league. But the overall results don’t make it look like there’s much separating each offense other than the well-placed notion that the Bengals are capable of reaching higher heights on a given week.

They did lose pace of the Chargers last week, but Nix has been coming around nicely. It has helped Sutton find his stride again. Between all their other weapon with guys like DeVaughn Vele, Marvin Mims, and a slightly-improving run-game with Audric Estime taking a larger role, with a deep cast of backs along with Javonte Williams, they’ve gotten it done. Again, it’s not the most dynamic group, but they do a lot of the little things that make it so you can overlook what is a general lack of star-power, especially when compared to what is on the opposite sideline.

Take the Points on the Road Dog

This might not seem like the most opportune time to bet into Cincy, as they are in an absolutely desperate situation where any slip-up marks the end. The Broncos saw what looked to be a sure path to the playoffs take a bad turn last week, and I suspect they don’t want to roll the dice with a regular season finale against the Chiefs. I see a motivated Denver team showing up on Sunday, playing some defense, and getting enough big plays from Nix and his weapons to get out of Cincy on Saturday with the cover. I’m taking the Broncos.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Denver Broncos plus 3.5 points.