Broncos or Raiders? ATS Prediction for This AFC West Showdown

Denver Broncos (6-5 SU, 8-3 ATS) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS)

NFL Football Week 12

Date/Time: Sunday, November 24, 2024 at 4:05PM EST

Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada

TV: CBS

The Denver Broncos come to Allegiant Stadium for an AFC West showdown with the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday. With these two teams, we’re looking at a couple of squads who have either surpassed expectations this season or have fallen short of not meeting them. On the positive side of that equation is a Broncos team that storms into this matchup at 6-5 through 11 games. In a critical spot on Sunday after losing two in a row, the Broncos flattened the Falcons 38-6. Things have gotten ugly, however, for the Raiders, losers of 6 in a row, including a 34-19 loss on the road on Sunday to the Dolphins. Can they give the Broncos some resistance at home, or will the Broncos continue to make their postseason case?

Clues from Week 5?

It can be tricky to rely on the first game when divisional rivals meet for the second time in a season. Still, a potential Raiders’ backer might be hard-pressed to explain how things will be appreciably different from the Broncos’ 34-18 win over the Raiders at Mile High. Sure, the Raiders are at home, but other than beating what was a really sideways Browns team in September, they haven’t found much solace at Allegiant Stadium. When the Raiders stepped on the field against the Broncos in week 5, they were 2-2 with some hope. The Broncos sent them off the rails, with the Raiders still having not won a game since. Against the Broncos, Aidan McConnell and Gardner Minshew split the QB duties, with both combining for three picks, which they couldn’t overcome.

Trying to Make a Case for the Raiders

In the first game against Denver, we saw moments of brief success with the Raiders getting the ball to Jakobi Meyers and standout rookie tight end Brock Bowers. We also saw Minshew connecting well with Bowers last week with a big 13-catch performance. They cannot run the ball. The returns from the defense have been diminishing over the course of the season. But sometimes, Minshew can pop off, and he has some guys around him to make it stick. The Broncos are really motoring right now but are still not infallible enough to make it so the Raiders competing with them in this divisional setting is an unfathomable scenario.

While the Broncos being over .500 this season is a surprise, especially with a rookie quarterback and their 0-2 start to the season, their last game isn’t always typical. Prior to that, they had scored 24 combined points in their last two games. This Bo Nix-led offense can stall out. Their run game can fail to deliver. Nix has the growing pains of a rookie playing at this level for the first time. And while it feels off-the-mark to be saying this on the heels of Nix throwing four TDs on over 300 yards passing last week, the range you get from this offense can have a large spectrum of outcomes.

Go-Time for the Broncos?

I like the way they responded to urgency last week, really taking it to a 6-4 Falcons team, with Denver running away with it. We’re seeing a lot of different weapons forming around Nix. The cast of different weapons they have is growing, with an all-hands-on-deck approach both on the ground and through the air. But now is where it needs to translate into wins. After losing ground with the 2-game slide they ended last week, they now have the Raiders, Browns, and Colts in their next three games and need to put those wins in the bank if they want to get into the wild-card picture.

The Broncos have been pretty good from a betting standpoint. You’d think that with their style of play, where they rely a lot on defense, they’d be the kind of team that grinds out wins. And they can do that, too. But they’re not really that type of team when you look at their wins—a 32-point win last week, a 14-point win over Carolina, a 23-point win over New Orleans, the 16-point win over this Raiders team, and a 22-point win over Tampa. Sure, they have the kind of stout defense that can take over a game, with the kind of pass-rush and other disruptiveness that can change the direction of a contest. But with an offense growing in power and taking shape, they can get a little separation on an opponent, too.

What to Expect

It would be premature to figure this Raiders team is packing it in, but they certainly do land in this week 12 spot with a decided thud. Losing six in a row and being 2-8 is a miserable predicament for a team that showed a lot of heart-fighting through all their issues last season. Coach Antonio Pierce isn’t getting these guys to respond. There are some veterans and youngsters alike on offense trying to either make their name or revive their careers. On defense, they’ve been getting battered. You’re getting some good play here and there from different guys like Maxx Crosby, but collectively, the levels of resistance are waning.

While there were some decent signs of life on offense last week for the Raiders, more was expected from the “D” coming off the bye and a game where they gave up 41 points to the Bengals. But the Dolphins more or less had their way. Maybe playing the Broncos after games against KC, Cincinnati, and Miami in three straight games will paint the Raiders’ defense in a good light, but it’s still the same Denver offense that put up 34 on them earlier in the season.

Lay the Number on the Road Favorite

Other than being at home or the possibility that Denver will be overlooking a foe they already beat, it’s not easy to find a case for the Raiders. Sure, the Broncos might be a little overrated or at the very least capable of form-shifts from week to week. But I wouldn’t expect to catch them sleeping this week after having just lifted their noses above .500, and I’m not sure how much comfort a Raiders backer can derive from being at home at this point. I’ll take the Broncos in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Denver Broncos minus 5.5 points.