Bounce Back: New England at Minnesota Pick 11/24/22

New England Patriots (6-4 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) vs. Minnesota Vikings (8-2 SU, 4-5-1 ATS)

Week 12 NFL

Date/Time: Thursday, November 24, 2022 at 8:20PM EST

Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota

TV: NBC

Point Spread: NE +3/MIN -3 (Bovada – Bet the game LIVE in progress at the web’s sportsbook! They’re live wagering platform is INCREDIBLE! All one one page and FAST processing!)

Over/Under Total: 42.5

The New England Patriots take on the Minnesota Vikings on Thanksgiving Day at U.S Bank Stadium in week 12 action. The Patriots snatched a victory from the Jets last week on a last-minute punt return TD that lifted them to 6-4. The overachieving Patriots have now won three in a row and five of six games. The Vikings are in better shape overall, atop the NFC North at 8-2, but an ugly 40-3 home loss to the Cowboys last week likely has some alarms sounding as they look to regain their footing this week against a hot team. Who can get it done on Turkey Day in Minneapolis?

The Risk on Overlooking the Patriots

It’s not difficult to low-rate the Pats. But something about the system, Belichick, or some magic pixie dust floating around in their locker room has them doing pretty well. Looking at their roster, it’s not thrilling. They have a QB in Mac Jones who is far from titillating. There’s a nice timeshare in the backfield with Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, but aerially, the pickings are fairly slim. Still, when you add a good secondary into the equation, a good overall defense, a run-game, and good coaching, it’s not a formula that’s going to totally fall flat most weeks. They lack the star power we see on the Minnesota offense, but that disparity does not necessarily characterize how this game will go.

Daylight this Week for the Patriots

New England is doing their thing, trying to put together a playoff team and starting to see good results. That’s where the Vikings were up until last week. Granted, the Patriots are not equipped to fully test the shortcomings we’ve seen on the Minnesota defense. The Vikings have a leaky secondary, and last week showed a two-man RB tandem can do untold damage on this unit, with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard running roughshod over this bunch. This is a spot where the New England offense can do some damage. And with their secondary, it’s not so much an issue of full-fledged pass coverage as much as it’s about curtailing Justin Jefferson, but the Pats have shown themselves to be adept in curbing a team’s major weapon.

We’ve seen teams start super-fast, camouflaging their shortcomings with other things they do well before dying on a vine. Even last week, an offensive surge allowed the Vikings to beat the Bills, but they have now allowed 70 total points in two games. About average against the run, they are ghastly against the pass. The Patriots should have multiple routes to offensive success this week. If Jones can fire up that aerial package, it could open things up on the ground. And while the Patriots lack a star receiver, they have a pretty deep cast of guys who could and should step up this week against this Vikings’ secondary.More Picks: Get Loot’s Bucs at Browns Week 12 betting analysis and prediction ATS

Possible Issues for the Ducks

Jumping to Conclusions

An 8-2 start would seem to be enough to give a team a pass for a bad week. Granted, a 40-3 home-loss is alarming and it did bring some things to light that were already identified as potential problem areas this season for the Vikes. But judging New England after they lost by 19 to the Bears would have made you miss them covering three straight games and counting. Likewise, we should extend Minnesota a little benefit of the doubt in light of what they’ve done this season. A few duds here and there doesn’t take away from the things they’ve done. If looking to be a naysayer, one could say that losing so badly to the Eagles and Cowboys tells a bigger story than their eight wins, where their best wins were against the compromised Bills and a Tua-less Dolphins bunch.

Even so, the Patriots will be facing a team eager to not drop consecutive games at home that has an offense that can really do damage. New England’s defense has been looking good, but it’s not often they’ve been going against this caliber of weaponry with Jefferson running free and Dalvin Cook in the backfield. Against an irritated Vikings team looking to avoid the fate of other fast-starting teams that are a foregone memory by the time the postseason hits, the Patriots will be going against an offense that usually finds the right recipe, with last week being more of an exception. And there will, of course, be those who just don’t like getting behind Kirk Cousins in any kind of spotlight game. After seeing him flop in a series of different MNF and other stand-alone games, it’s understandable why someone would be more enthused about Cousins and the Vikes when they’re buried in the middle of a Sunday slate of games. But maybe Cousins got that out of the way last week in what was really a putrid performance.

Lay the Number

The Patriots are dangerous in this context, seemingly producing results that exceed their projections more often than not. And maybe against a 9-1 Vikings team on the short week that just won routinely last week would have been a better spot for them to jump up and bite the Vikes in this spot. But a Vikings team on high alert after last week’s flop is less likely to be taken by surprise. I think New England is a team that will thrive in a lot of spots this season, with games against winning high-powered offenses being a little more out-of-range. I’ll take the Vikings this week.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Minnesota Vikings minus 3 points. Bet your Thanksgiving Day NFL predictions for FREE by scoring a 100% real cash bonus up to $300 by entering bonus promo code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!