Bills vs. Texans: Free Picks, Indepth Analysis for Week 5

Buffalo Bills (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) at Houston Texans (3-1, 0-3-1), 10/6/24

When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Oct. 6
Where: NRG Stadium
TV: CBS

NFL betting odds: Buff -1/Hous +1
Money line: Buff -120/Hous +100
Over/under: 47.5

Game Preview

A pair of 3-1 teams meet when the Bills hit Houston to take on the Texans Sunday afternoon.

Buffalo won three straight to begin this season, then got punked at Baltimore Monday night. Do we bet the Bills on the bounce-back?

Houston won two straight to begin its season, got punked at Minnesota two weeks ago, then won last week.

And these teams might well meet again later this season, like, in a big game in January.

NFL Betting Line

The NFL Week 5 betting market opened Buffalo at -2.5 over Houston, with an O/U of right around 47. Early betting action shaved that spread to -1.

Bills Betting Preview

Buffalo just suffered its first loss of the season, 35-10 at Baltimore Monday night. The Bills gave up an 87-yard Derrick Henry touchdown bolt on their first play on defense, trailed 21-3 at the half, pulled to within 21-10 early in the third quarter but faded from there.

Buffalo got out-gained by the Ravens 427-236 and out-rushed 271-81.

The Bills also removed themselves from this season’s NFL “last to lose” pool, which is now down to just the Chiefs (+800) and Vikings (+7000).

On the prop board Bills QB Allen only threw for 180 yards Monday night, which played under his passing total of 233.5. And RB Cook only ran for 39 yards, under his rushing total of 55.5.

Buffalo opened this season with a 34-28 win over Arizona, then won at Miami 31-10, then rocked Jacksonville 47-10. The Bills played +5 on the turnover ratio through those three games.

After winning 11 games last season Buffalo is playing against a wins O/U this season of 10.5. So far the Bills are on pace to hit that over.

Texans Betting Preview

Meanwhile Houston is 3-1 after outlasting the Jaguars last Sunday 24-20. The Texans, favored at -5.5, spotted Jacksonville the first seven points of the game and still trailed 20-17 late. But Houston then drove 69 yards to a game-winning touchdown with 18 seconds left.

The Texans out-gained the Jags 435-313.

Houston opened this season with a 29-27 win at Indianapolis, then beat Chicago 19-13, but then lost up at Minnesota 34-7, before winning last week.

After winning 10 games last season the Texans are playing against a wins O/U this season of 9.5. They also are on pace to play over their total.

On the injury front Houston lists RB Mixon, WR Dell and two starters along the offensive line as questionable for Sunday.

These teams last met three seasons ago, a 40-0 Buffalo romp up at Orchard Park. How bad were the Texans at that moment? They whiffed ATS at +19.5.

Allen quarterbacked Buffalo that day against then-rookie Davis Mills for the Texans.

NFL Betting Trends

Home teams are 32-31 SU, 28-34 ATS this season.

Favorites are 38-26 SU, 28-35 ATS this season.

Home dogs are 7-12 SU, 10-9 ATS this season.

Totals Report

Totals are split 2-2 in Bills games this season, which are averaging 51 total points.

Unders are 3-1 in Texans games, which are averaging 43 points.

Unders are 33-30 in the NFL this season.

Prop Bets

Houston WR Robert Woods, who may get some targets if Dell can’t go, is catching +600 to score a touchdown.

Buffalo WR Mack Hollins, who had six targets Monday night, is catching +325 to score a TD.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Buffalo was looking really good through three games, then ran into a buzz-saw Monday night. But in our mind that just makes the Bills good candidates for a bounce-back performance this week. Houston, meanwhile, is only averaging 71 yards rushing its last three times out and teams that lose the ground battle in the NFL are 19-45 SU, 20-43 ATS this season. We faded the Texans last week because we still have some doubt about this team, which came out of nowhere last year to become a playoff contender, and while they won the game we won our bet. We’re gonna fade ‘em again this week; we’ll bet Buffalo.