Bills vs. Jaguars MNF Predictions: Expert Picks and Betting Analysis

Game Information

MNF Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2 SU & 1-1 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (2-0 SU & 1-1 ATS)

Date: September 23, 2024

Time: 7:30 PM ET

Venue: Highmark Stadium, Buffalo, NY

Weather: Clear, 68°F, Wind 6 mph

Betting Odds

Spread: Bills -5.5 (-110) (Bet it free with a 100% bonus!)

Moneyline: JAX +200, BUF -245

Over/Under: 45.5 points (-110)

Team Analysis

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)

The Jaguars have had a tough start, dropping their first game 20-17 against Miami. Trevor Lawrence has shown potential but has yet to fully connect with his offensive weapons, resulting in an average of 17 points per game. The ground game led by Travis Etienne is averaging 3.8 yards per carry, showing promise but not quite enough to consistently keep drives alive.

Jacksonville’s defense has allowed an average of 20 points per game, and they’ve struggled on 3rd downs, allowing opponents to convert at a 40% rate. This presents a challenge against a high-powered Bills offense that excels in sustaining drives.

Buffalo Bills (2-0)

The Bills have been one of the most efficient offenses so far, averaging 300 total yards per game with 119 rushing yards and 181 passing yards. Josh Allen has led the offense with precision, converting 48% of their 3rd down opportunities and scoring touchdowns on 75% of their red zone trips. They are averaging an impressive 32.5 points per game.

Defensively, the Bills have allowed 310.5 total yards per game but have held opponents to 19 points per game. However, injuries to key players like MLB Terrel Bernard and nickel cornerback Taron Johnson mean the defense may be more vulnerable, particularly against the Jaguars’ skill players.

Key Statistics

• Jaguars Offense: 295 total yards per game (127.5 rushing, 167.5 passing)
• Bills Offense: 300 total yards per game (119 rushing, 181 passing)
• Jaguars Defense: 310.5 total yards allowed per game (245.5 passing, 65 rushing)
• Bills Defense: 310.5 total yards allowed per game (179 passing, 152.5 rushing)
• Jaguars Points Per Game: 15.0 (30th in NFL)
• Bills Points Per Game: 32.5 (2nd in NFL)
• 3rd Down Conversion Rates: JAX 38%, BUF 48%
• Red Zone Scoring: JAX 50% TDs, BUF 75% TDs

Trends to Watch

• Buffalo is 8-1 SU in its last nine games.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo’s last seven games.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo’s last five games at home.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville’s last six games when playing on the road against Buffalo.
• Jacksonville is 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Key Matchups

Buffalo Offense vs. Jacksonville Defense: Buffalo’s offense has been highly efficient, converting nearly half of their 3rd downs and maintaining a 75% red zone touchdown rate. Jacksonville’s defense has struggled on 3rd downs, which could lead to long, sustained drives and scoring opportunities for the Bills.

Jacksonville’s Ground Game vs. Buffalo’s Run Defense: Travis Etienne, averaging 3.8 yards per carry, faces a Buffalo defense allowing 152.5 rushing yards per game. If Jacksonville can establish the run, they have a chance to stay competitive and contribute to a high-scoring game.

The Bottom Line

Buffalo’s offensive firepower, combined with Jacksonville’s potential to exploit the gaps in a banged-up Bills defense, indicates a strong likelihood that this game will go over the total of 45.5 points. Buffalo should continue their high-scoring trend, while Jacksonville’s offense should be able to produce enough to push the game into a higher-scoring affair.

While the Bills are favored by 5.5 points, Jacksonville’s potential to move the ball and take advantage of Buffalo’s injuries makes them an attractive pick to cover the spread.

Prediction: Bills 31, Jaguars 27

Best Bets

• Over 45.5 points (-110): Both offenses have shown they can produce, and Buffalo’s defensive injuries suggest this game will have plenty of scoring opportunities.
• Jaguars +5.5 (-110): With the potential to exploit Buffalo’s weakened defense, Jacksonville has a good chance to cover.
• Travis Etienne Over Rushing Yards: Buffalo’s run defense is allowing significant yardage, so Etienne has a strong opportunity to exceed his average, which has been an unimpressive 3.8 yards per carry.

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