Bills vs. Chiefs AFC Championship: Spread Prediction

Buffalo Bills (15-4 SU, 12-7 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (16-2 SU, 8-10 ATS)

AFC Championship Game

Date/Time: Sunday January 26, 2025 at 6:30PM EST

Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri

TV: CBS/Paramount

The Buffalo Bills come to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. Last week, Buffalo climbed a major hurdle in beating the Ravens. 27-25, avoiding a late two-point conversion that would tie the game. Kansas City, meanwhile, overcame a strong challenge from the Texans, beating them 23-14, to once again land in the AFC Title Game as they look to win their third straight Super Bowl. To do so, however, they will have to repel a team hungry to get into the big game in Buffalo. With the Bills having been denied glory three times by the Chiefs in the past, can they get over the hump, or will the Chiefs continue to have their number? Let’s break it down!

A Brief Look Back

Granted, these teams are characterized by what they do in the playoffs, and the specifics of the regular season might not matter a ton at this point. But we see the Bills getting up for these games, including a regular season 30-21 win over the 9-0 Chiefs earlier this season. With the Chiefs’ only other loss being a week 18 defeat where starters were rested, the Bills were really the only team to beat the Chiefs this season. What we can take from that game is iffy. The Chiefs were 9-0 in a regular season game, a far cry from being in the conference title game with a shot at the Super Bowl at stake. Still, we saw a good game from Josh Allen, who took a larger hand in the rushing game, as the Bills got the clear win. But alas, this is Arrowhead. And this is where the Chiefs’ bread is buttered.

Interesting Aspects of This Game

Each team is now different than some past incarnations of this matchup. Despite the continued rampant success of both teams, these offenses are a bit unconventional. The only 1000-yard guy out of all backs and receivers on either team is Buffalo’s James Cook, with 1009 yards rushing. There is a lot of spreading it around with Patrick Mahomes and Allen. There isn’t the same big-play potential as before. What you have is two well-rounded teams that have a lot of postseason experience. At the same time, you get the feeling with both teams that they’ve been saving their best for last. For Kansas City, this is where the veterans really start to shine, like Travis Kelce and other standouts on both sides of the ball. And for Buffalo, this is where they can let Josh Allen take a larger hand in things as he dips into his deep bag of tools to help him get the job done.

Why the Chiefs Are Tough to Pick Against

We’ve seen it for years, and even last week—they found a way. Mahomes was big last week, hitting Kelce for the big play when he was falling down. This team is as adept as any team in recent memory in simply being able to cultivate wins. When Mahomes has an edge, as he figures to have in this game, he’s a different animal than the “do enough to win” player we saw at times in the regular season. And that also goes for his reliable longtime weapon, Kelce.

The Chiefs have seen their pass-rush crack up in recent weeks, honing to a fine point just at the right time. The Bills’ front is going to be seeing more pressure than what they’ve seen likely all year, with a home-Chiefs defensive front making the big push. It’s not going to be easy for Allen, Cook, and the rest of the Buffalo backfield to penetrate, at least without paying a big price. Beyond the football-related ins and outs of the matchup, specifically, it is just the Chiefs’ pedigree. It’s almost how an old and revered heavyweight boxing champion would just innately know how to do enough to get to the winner’s circle. And the officiating would sometimes even unconsciously be congratulatory to him. But you still knew if he needed those last rounds, he was going to get them. That’s what the Chiefs are like. And in close games like what this seems like it might be, having that certain knack of getting it done goes a long way.

The Chiefs being at home is of no minor consequence. That crowd will be humming, and it can be a real disruptive force, as Josh Allen won’t be able to communicate very readily. The Chiefs have a special teams edge, another intangible in their column. They might get a few calls. They have guys who step up from week to week, and while there aren’t any players on this offense that had great seasons, the combination of Mahomes, Kelce, Kareem Hunt, Isiah Pacheco, DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Worthy, Noah Gray, Hollywood Brown, etc. makes them a team with a lot of options.

Pause for Concern

It’s still difficult to recommend an overly gung-ho stance on the Chiefs, even with them being two-time defending champions. The Bills are already one of the best teams over a stretch of time to have not appeared in a Super Bowl. One has to figure that it can’t go on forever like that. There are certainly things you can point out about the Bills that aren’t great. And we’ve seen their “D” sink to some low depths this season. However, a respectable showing in this postseason with 32 combined points allowed to the Broncos and Ravens isn’t too bad.

Like the Chiefs, no one on this offense had the year of a superstar, while there are enough guys to get it done with their diverse backfield led by Cook, along with a lot of talent in the aerial package, though it sometimes appears to be more of a mish-mosh. I think the Bills’ real weapon is a version of Josh Allen, who is in his dead-prime where you get the feeling if push comes to shove, he might try to take over the game—a scary proposition for anyone on the opposite side of that bet.

Lay the Points on the Home Favorite

As much as I entertained a stance on the Bills, the mind kept coming back to Mahomes. I just think against this Buffalo defense, when he needs the big play, chances are he’s going to get it. I think we will see a lot of fight in the Bills, but the depth of the Chiefs and how well-rounded they are in practically all aspects will be a package that is still out of reach—especially in this setting and with these stakes. There are variables like turnovers and whatnot that could throw this for a loop, and while I don’t think the Bills are hopeless, especially ATS, I see the Chiefs again crossing the wire, leading by a clear head. I’ll take Kansas City.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Kansas City Chiefs minus 2 points.

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