Bills vs. Dolphins: Week 2 Point Spread Pick

The Buffalo Bills take on the Miami Dolphins in an AFC East battle from Hard Rock Stadium on Thursday Night Football. Both teams were successful in their 2024 regular season debuts, with the Bills beating the Cardinals, 34-28, while the Dolphins beat the Jaguars, 20-17. Neither team covered the spread in their week one wins. These are the two top contenders in the division and are considered to be two contenders for the conference, as well. And despite Buffalo sagging a little the last few years, with Miami on the rise, it has been the Bills who largely control this matchup the last several years, including last season’s sweep. In the last three years, the only time the Dolphins beat them was early in the season a few years ago by one point. Also in that stretch has been a lot of dominating wins by the Bills.

Issues for the Bills

Not to put too much stock into one game, and while recognizing the Cardinals do have some talent on offense, we might be seeing the beginning (or maybe more the continuation) of a defense that hasn’t aged well. It’s a part of the team that is waning. And while they’re in familiar territory taking on a foe they know and have mostly dominated, this could be where we start to see how bankable this Buffalo “D” is against better offensive teams. And when it’s all said and done this season, this Dolphins’ offense has a chance to be the league’s best—Tua Tagovailoa behind center, the 1-2 punch at RB with Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane, with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle at receiver. There will be weeks where opponents are just overwhelmed.

Buffalo has one thing going for them that Miami does not and that’s a hard-nosed QB who isn’t afraid to take some lumps, as we saw him personally forge this offense into a winning unit last week, throwing for two touchdowns and running in another two. And while Allen has a good back to work with in James Cook, along with a rising force at TE in Dalton Kincaid, the receiver crew is largely revamped. And a lot of this offense’s success at top levels like this will come down to how much they can get out of guys like Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel. It’s just that with what they’re battling with in 2024, Buffalo’s offense looks a little shaky alongside offensive powers like Miami where all their pieces are cemented.

But Not So Fast…

We see that with their week one output of 20 points and that in their last six meetings with Buffalo they’ve averaged less than 16 point scoring that, the Miami offensive juggernaut doesn’t always surface. There’s a lack of automaticity with this offense or even games like last week where an abundance of offensive production doesn’t necessarily equate to points. Sometimes, they rely a lot on the run and other games, they get very little out of their run-game. On the surface, all seemed OK against Jacksonville. But Tua was not terribly accurate and made just one really big play. The vaunted run-game with Achane and Mostert didn’t really pan out, as it was actually Jeff Wilson who led the team in rushing yards.

I think people can tend to oversimplify spots like this. They sort of just look at each team’s respective pieces and sign off on the offensive superiority of Miami. Or they like Josh Allen and his new weapons. This pairing doesn’t always unfold along lines so simple, as there is a lot of history and nuance between these two teams when they take the field. An analysis along the lines of gauging offensive firepower would have left a lot on the table when looking at these two teams the last 2-3 seasons. That’s shown by how Buffalo, with what appears to be inferior or at least less-abundant offensive pieces, along with a defense that has been downward-trending the last few seasons, has done quite well against the upward-ascending Dolphins lately.

Big Questions

Still, when Allen was getting those wins against Miami, he was able to rely on certain production. He still has Khalil Shakir at receiver and an intact TE package of Kincaid and Dawson Knox. But what he can extract from Samuel, Coleman, Mack Hollins, and others will be key to determining the immediate trajectory of this offense. And even if not everything pans out perfectly, you can still do much worse than Josh Allen, a guy with the ability and ruggedness to gut out wins when all the chips are in the middle. When the guy on the other sideline is more of a delicate swan, having a guy like Allen can go a long way.

This is going to be a real show-and-prove moment for the Buffalo defense that will give us a better idea of what we’re working with in the early part of the ’24 season. Their stock wasn’t very high entering the season, and the Cardinals scoring 28 probably doesn’t help much, but Arizona got a special-teams TD and a few field goals, making it not look so bad for the Bills. But going on the road to take on an early-season and intact Miami offense could throw a different light on it.

Lay the Small number on the Home Favorite

Part of you wants to defer to whatever matchup quirk it is that has allowed Buffalo to be so strong in these pairings recently. There’s just something about an early-season Miami team going against a defense that might not have their act together that makes me think we finally get that big Dolphins offensive performance in this spot and not the more-subdued ones we’ve seen in the recent past in this divisional matchup. With a small number to cover this week, I think Miami manages to get it done and cover the spread at home this week. I’ll take the Dolphins.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Miami Dolphins minus two points.

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