Betting Theory – Wager against road teams when they are laying more than 7 points. Over 62% NFL handicapping angle since 1997!
Since free agency started depending on which side of the fence you are on the NFL has been cursed or blessed with parity. Any given team can not only cover the spread each week, but can actually grab a straight up win
We should have titled this “Don’t bet on road favorites giving more than 7 points.
We have always preached to look for value in the underdog in any NFL point spread wager and preferably a home pointspread dog, which has historically been an even better bet.
So why would any bettor with any knowledge on how to handicap the NFL place any bets on a big road fav? If you answered “they wouldn’t”, then you are not in the class of the many weekend handicappers (squares) that continue to lay their action down on road favorites and you’re probably not sending your bookies kids to college.
Since 1997 there have been 104 games that the odds maker set a line on a road team of 7 or more points. In those games the road betting line favorite has a record of 38-63-3 for a 37.6 winning percentage. If you wagered against the road team in these situations you’d have been cashing your ticket at the betting window over 62% of the time. Last season was one of the most profitable for this wagering angle as the underdog won 8 of the 10 games.
Below I have included the games that fit this handicapping situation since 1997.
| Date | Match-up | Final | Fav ATS |
| Sep 7 1997 | Green Bay Packers -7½ @ Philadelphia Eagles | Eagles 10-9 | Lost |
| Sep 7 1997 | Dallas Cowboys -9½ @ Arizona Cardinals | Cardinals 25-22 | Lost |
| Sep 28 1997 | Denver Broncos -11 @ Atlanta Falcons | Broncos 29-21 | Lost |
| Sep 28 1997 | Green Bay Packers -7½ @ Detroit Lions | Lions 26-15 | Lost |
| Oct 5 1997 | Dallas Cowboys -7½ @ New York Giants | Giants 20-17 | Lost |
| Oct 12 1997 | Green Bay Packers -11½ @ Chicago Bears | Packers 24-23 | Lost |
| Oct 19 1997 | San Francisco 49ers -10½ @ Atlanta Falcons | 49ers 35-28 | Lost |
| Oct 26 1997 | San Francisco 49ers -13½ @ New Orleans Saints | 49ers 23-0 | Won |
| Nov 16 1997 | Green Bay Packers -13 @ Indianapolis Colts | Colts 41-38 | Lost |
| Nov 30 1997 | Denver Broncos -8½ @ San Diego Chargers | Broncos 38-28 | Won |
| Dec 14 1997 | Kansas City Chiefs -9½ @ San Diego Chargers | Chiefs 29-7 | Won |
| Sep 6 1998 | Jacksonville Jaguars -10 @ Chicago Bears | Jaguars 24-23 | Lost |
| Sep 13 1998 | Minnesota Vikings -7½ @ St Louis Rams | Vikings 38-31 | Lost |
| Sep 27 1998 | Kansas City Chiefs -8 @ Philadelphia Eagles | Chiefs 24-21 | Lost |
| Oct 4 1998 | San Francisco 49ers -10 @ Buffalo Bills | Bills 26-21 | Lost |
| Oct 11 1998 | San Francisco 49ers -10½ @ New Orleans Saints | 49ers 31-0 | Won |
| Oct 25 1998 | San Francisco 49ers -9½ @ St Louis Rams | 49ers 28-10 | Won |
| Nov 1 1998 | Denver Broncos -11 @ Cincinnati Bengals | Broncos 33-26 | Lost |
| Nov 29 1998 | Denver Broncos -13 @ San Diego Chargers | Broncos 31-16 | Won |
| Dec 6 1998 | San Francisco 49ers -9½ @ Carolina Panthers | 49ers 31-28 | Lost |
| Dec 13 1998 | Denver Broncos -13 @ New York Giants | Giants 20-16 | Lost |
| Dec 13 1998 | Minnesota Vikings -10 @ Baltimore Ravens | Vikings 38-28 | Push |
| Sep 19 1999 | Jacksonville Jaguars -9½ @ Carolina Panthers | Jaguars 22-20 | Lost |
| Oct 3 1999 | New England Patriots -12 @ Cleveland Browns | Patriots 19-7 | Push |
| Oct 10 1999 | Dallas Cowboys -9½ @ Philadelphia Eagles | Eagles 13-10 | Lost |
| Oct 31 1999 | Jacksonville Jaguars -12½ @ Cincinnati Bengals | Jaguars 41-10 | Won |
| Nov 14 1999 | Tennessee Titans -10 @ Cincinnati Bengals | Titans 24-14 | Push |
| Nov 21 1999 | St Louis Rams -7½ @ San Francisco 49ers | Rams 23-7 | Won |
| Nov 28 1999 | Tennessee Titans -10½ @ Cleveland Browns | Titans 33-21 | Won |
| Dec 12 1999 | St Louis Rams -10½ @ New Orleans Saints | Rams 30-14 | Won |
| Dec 19 1999 | Jacksonville Jaguars -14½ @ Cleveland Browns | Jaguars 24-14 | Lost |
| Dec 24 1999 | Dallas Cowboys -8½ @ New Orleans Saints | Saints 31-24 | Lost |
| Dec 26 1999 | Indianapolis Colts -13½ @ Cleveland Browns | Colts 29-28 | Lost |
| Jan 2 2000 | St Louis Rams -8 @ Philadelphia Eagles | Eagles 38-31 | Lost |
| Sep 3 2000 | Jacksonville Jaguars -10½ @ Cleveland Browns | Jaguars 27-7 | Won |
| Sep 10 2000 | St Louis Rams -7½ @ Seattle Seahawks | Rams 37-34 | Lost |
| Oct 1 2000 | Baltimore Ravens -8½ @ Cleveland Browns | Ravens 12-0 | Won |
| Oct 8 2000 | Tennessee Titans -10 @ Cincinnati Bengals | Titans 23-14 | Lost |
| Oct 22 2000 | Denver Broncos -10 @ Cincinnati Bengals | Bengals 31-21 | Lost |
| Nov 5 2000 | New York Giants -10 @ Cleveland Browns | Giants 24-3 | Won |
| Nov 5 2000 | Washington Redskins -10 @ Arizona Cardinals | Cardinals 16-15 | Lost |
| Nov 19 2000 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 @ Chicago Bears | Bears 13-10 | Lost |
| Dec 3 2000 | St Louis Rams -8 @ Carolina Panthers | Panthers 16-3 | Lost |
| Dec 10 2000 | Philadelphia Eagles -14 @ Cleveland Browns | Eagles 35-24 | Lost |
| Dec 17 2000 | Jacksonville Jaguars -10½ @ Cincinnati Bengals | Bengals 17-14 | Lost |
| Dec 17 2000 | Tennessee Titans -16 @ Cleveland Browns | Titans 24-0 | Won |
| Dec 17 2000 | Baltimore Ravens -15 @ Arizona Cardinals | Ravens 13-7 | Lost |
| Sep 9 2001 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9 @ Dallas Cowboys | Buccaneers 10-6/td> | Lost |
| Sep 23 2001 | Denver Broncos -8½ @ Arizona Cardinals | Broncos 38-17 | Won |
| Sep 30 2001 | Indianapolis Colts -11½ @ New England Patriots | Patriots 44-13 | Lost |
| Oct 8 2001 | St Louis Rams -12½ @ Detroit Lions | Rams 35-0 | Won |
| Oct 21 2001 | Baltimore Ravens -7½ @ Cleveland Browns | Browns 24-14 | Lost |
| Oct 28 2001 | New York Giants -7½ @ Washington Redskins | Redskins 35-21 | Lost |
| Nov 18 2001 | St Louis Rams -8½ @ New England Patriots | Rams 24-17 | Lost |
| Dec 2 2001 | St Louis Rams -8 @ Atlanta Falcons | Rams 35-6 | Won |
| Dec 23 2001 | St Louis Rams -12½ @ Carolina Panthers | Rams 38-32 | Lost |
| Dec 30 2001 | Pittsburgh Steelers -8 @ Cincinnati Bengals | Bengals 26-23 | Lost |
| Sep 8 2002 | Dallas Cowboys -8½ @ Houston Texans | Texans 19-10 | Lost |
| Sep 22 2002 | Indianapolis Colts -10½ @ Houston Texans | Colts 23-3 | Won |
| Sep 22 2002 | Green Bay Packers -7½ @ Detroit Lions | Packers 37-31 | Lost |
| Sep 29 2002 | New Orleans Saints -9 @ Detroit Lions | Lions 26-21 | Lost |
| Sep 30 2002 | Denver Broncos -9 @ Baltimore Ravens | Ravens 34-23 | Lost |
| Oct 27 2002 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 @ Carolina Panthers | Buccaneers 12-9 | Lost |
| Nov 24 2002 | Oakland Raiders -9½ @ Arizona Cardinals | Raiders 41-20 | Won |
| Dec 15 2002 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9½ @ Detroit Lions | Buccaneers 23-20 | Lost |
| Dec 29 2002 | Tennessee Titans -9½ @ Houston Texans | Titans 13-3 | Won |
| Sep 21 2003 | Kansas City Chiefs -7½ @ Houston Texans | Chiefs 42-14 | Won |
| Sep 21 2003 | Green Bay Packers -7½ @ Arizona Cardinals | Cardinals 20-13 | Lost |
| Nov 30 2003 | Kansas City Chiefs -7½ @ San Diego Chargers | Chiefs 28-24 | Lost |
| Dec 27 2003 | Philadelphia Eagles -9 @ Washington Redskins | Eagles 31-7 | Won |
| Dec 28 2003 | St Louis Rams -12 @ Detroit Lions | Lions 30-20 | Lost |
| Dec 28 2003 | Indianapolis Colts -9 @ Houston Texans | Colts 20-17 | Lost |
| Dec 28 2003 | Minnesota Vikings -7½ @ Arizona Cardinals | Cardinals 18-17 | Lost |
| Sep 19 2004 | New England Patriots -8 @ Arizona Cardinals | Patriots 23-12 | Won |
| Oct 3 2004 | Philadelphia Eagles -8½ @ Chicago Bears | Eagles 19-9 | Won |
| Nov 21 2004 | Indianapolis Colts -8 @ Chicago Bears | Colts 41-10 | Won |
| Nov 25 2004 | Indianapolis Colts -8½ @ Detroit Lions | Colts 41-9 | Won |
| Dec 5 2004 | New England Patriots -11 @ Cleveland Browns | Patriots 42-15 | Won |
| Dec 12 2004 | Indianapolis Colts -10 @ Houston Texans | Colts 23-14 | Lost |
| Dec 12 2004 | Philadelphia Eagles -8 @ Washington Redskins | Eagles 17-14 | Lost |
| Dec 18 2004 | Pittsburgh Steelers -10 @ New York Giants | Steelers 33-30 | Lost |
| Dec 19 2004 | San Diego Chargers -8 @ Cleveland Browns | Chargers 21-0 | Won |
| Dec 20 2004 | New England Patriots -10 @ Miami Dolphins | Dolphins 29-28 | Lost |
| Dec 26 2004 | Buffalo Bills -10 @ San Francisco 49ers | Bills 41-7 | Won |
| Oct 9 2005 | Indianapolis Colts -14 @ San Francisco 49ers | Colts 28-3 | Won |
| Oct 23 2005 | Indianapolis Colts -14½ @ Houston Texans | Colts 38-20 | Won |
| Oct 30 2005 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers -11½ @ San Francisco 49ers | 49ers 15-10 | Lost |
| Nov 6 2005 | New York Giants -9½ @ San Francisco 49ers | Giants 24-6 | Won |
| Nov 20 2005 | Seattle Seahawks -12 @ San Francisco 49ers | Seahawks 27-25 | Lost |
| Dec 11 2005 | Indianapolis Colts -7½ @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Colts 26-18 | Won |
| Dec 17 2005 | Denver Broncos -8 @ Buffalo Bills | Broncos 28-17 | Won |
| Dec 18 2005 | Seattle Seahawks -7½ @ Tennessee Titans | Seahawks 28-24 | Lost |
| Dec 18 2005 | Cincinnati Bengals -7½ @ Detroit Lions | Bengals 41-17 | Won |
| Dec 31 2005 | New York Giants -7½ @ Oakland Raiders | Giants 30-21 | Won |
| Oct 1 2006 | Indianapolis Colts -8 @ New York Jets | Colts 31-28 | Lost |
| Oct 1 2006 | Dallas Cowboys -9½ @ Tennessee Titans | Cowboys 45-14 | Won |
| Oct 15 2006 | San Diego Chargers -10 @ San Francisco 49ers | Chargers 48-19 | Won |
| Oct 16 2006 | Chicago Bears -13 @ Arizona Cardinals | Bears 24-23 | Lost |
| Oct 22 2006 | Jacksonville Jaguars -8 @ Houston Texans | Texans 27-7 | Lost |
| Oct 29 2006 | Pittsburgh Steelers -9 @ Oakland Raiders | Raiders 20-13 | Lost |
| Nov 12 2006 | Baltimore Ravens -7½ @ Tennessee Titans | Ravens 27-26 | Lost |
| Nov 12 2006 | Denver Broncos -8 @ Oakland Raiders | Broncos 17-13 | Lost |
| Dec 3 2006 | Indianapolis Colts -7½ @ Tennessee Titans | Titans 20-17 | Lost |
| Dec 24 2006 | Indianapolis Colts -9½ @ Houston Texans | Texans 27-24 | Lost |