Bet the Total: Colts vs. Texans Pick for Week 8

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans Betting Analysis & Under Pick | Week 8
Where: NRG Stadium (Houston, TX)
When: Sunday, October 27th at 1:00 PM EST
Watch: CBS

Betting Odds

• Houston Texans: -4.5
• Over/Under: 45.5

The Week 8 matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans is poised to be a captivating contest, rich with strategic intricacies and high-stakes implications. Both teams, entrenched in their respective narratives, are navigating the complexities of the season with a blend of resilience and tactical acumen. The Colts, known for their methodical approach and disciplined execution, will likely emphasize their cohesive unit to outmaneuver the Texans. Their game plan will revolve around leveraging their strengths in both offensive and defensive schemes, aiming to control the tempo and maintain possession. Special teams could also play a pivotal role, with field position battles potentially determining the game’s outcome.

On the other side, the Texans will be looking to capitalize on their dynamic playmaking abilities and adaptability. Their strategy may involve exploiting any weaknesses in the Colts’ formations, utilizing a mix of innovative plays to keep their opponents guessing. Defensive pressure and turnovers could be key factors, as the Texans aim to disrupt the Colts’ rhythm and create scoring opportunities. The chess match between the coaching staffs will be fascinating to observe, as adjustments and counter-adjustments unfold throughout the game. Fans can expect a blend of traditional football fundamentals and modern tactical innovations as both teams vie for supremacy on the field. This encounter is not just about the immediate win but also about setting the tone for the remainder of the season.

Indianapolis Colts Breakdown

The Indianapolis Colts enter their second matchup against the Texans with just one game separating the two in the standings as the Colts are currently 2nd in the AFC South with a 4-3 record. Riding a two-game win streak after beating the Titans and Dolphins, the Colts are looking to avenge their Week 1 loss to the Texans. Anthony Richardson returns under center after missing time in previous weeks. Despite his raw potential, Richardson has struggled with consistency, throwing three touchdowns to six interceptions. He will need to clean up his play this week to give the Colts a chance.

Indy is also hoping for the return of Jonathan Taylor, who would provide a huge boost in the backfield. With Trey Sermon filling the role, the Colts averaged below 3 yards per carry and struggled to sustain drives. Additionally, the Colts may be without wide receivers Michael Pittman and Josh Downs, as neither has practiced yet this week. Overall, the Colts rank 16th in total yardage, 17th in passing, and 14th in rushing, averaging 22.1 points per game so far in 2024. Defensively, Indianapolis allows nearly 400 yards per game, including 160 on the ground, and ranks 25th in 3rd down conversion defense, with opponents converting at a 44.6% rate.

Houston Texans Breakdown

The Houston Texans, looking to extend their division lead, bring a 5-2 record into this rematch with playoff aspirations on the line. Second-year quarterback CJ Stroud has delivered solid performances, accumulating 1,663 passing yards, ten touchdowns, and a 94.9 quarterback rating. With Nico Collins sidelined, Stroud will rely on Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell in the receiving game. Veteran running back Joe Mixon, having found his stride, leads the ground game with an impressive 5.2 yards per carry and five touchdowns, recording three 100-yard games in his four appearances this season.

This Houston offense is top 10 in total yards gained and passing yards per game, although they are middle-of-the-pack in points scored, averaging 23.6 per game. Defensively, the Texans have been a stingy unit, ranking in the top 10 against both the run and pass. They allow fewer than 300 total yards per game and hold opponents to a low 34.8% conversion rate on third down, making them a formidable defensive challenge for the Colts’ inconsistent offense.

My Pick: Under 45.5 (-110)

While the last matchup between these AFC South rivals went over the total, I expect this one to go under. Neither team has demonstrated consistent scoring ability, and both defenses have been strong enough to limit red zone conversions into touchdowns. Expect a lot of field goals and clock management in Houston on Sunday. With the emergence of Joe Mixon and the potential return of Jonathan Taylor, both sides are likely to lean on run-heavy schemes. It might not be the most thrilling matchup, but a lower-scoring game presents a solid betting opportunity for those who follow my under pick.