Best Bets on NFL Teams to Make/Not Make the Playoffs

Betting on a team to either make or not make the playoffs can be a rewarding wager. You’ll have a stake in all the team’s games, or at least until it becomes clear whether a team will make the postseason or fall short. It’s a wager where you’re forced to take into account the entire landscape. Sure, a team getting into the playoffs requires a full assessment of the team in question—their trajectory, key changes in personnel and coaching, how resilient they are to setbacks, etc. But a postseason assessment is not complete without coming to grips with that team’s division, how well their schedule cooperates, and getting a lay of the land within the conference where there are only so many slots available.

Over the last few years, some of us more old-school NFL observers have been forced to tweak our notion of a playoff team. There is now an extra slot, with seven teams from each conference getting into the playoffs. And with the extra game in the regular season, it shifted the line in the sand as far as what a team needs to generally do to be in the running. With these picks, we tried to stray from the more obvious choices, like taking the Chiefs to get in or betting on the Cardinals not to make it. We took some more of the riskier plays with prices that are easier to stomach. Let’s take a look at our favorite bets to either make or not make the playoffs this year. (Odds by Bovada)

Best Bets to Make the Playoffs

Carolina Panthers (+185): A new coaching staff led by Frank Reich and a rookie QB in Bryce Young would tend to give one pause. But the mixture of new blood combined with what seemed to be an overachieving group from last season could bode well in a weak division. Adding Miles Sanders to the backfield while giving the rookie QB a few more weapons to work with in wide receiver DJ Chark and TE Hayden Hurst aren’t awe-inspiring moves. Still, seeing them being in the mix late, albeit in a hampered NFC South division, with the combination of bad fortune they caught last season, tells me this could be a team that springs to life a bit ahead of schedule.

Miami Dolphins (-130): A dicey proposition with the iffy status of Tua Tagovailoa. There are some potential Ls out there for the ‘Fins as they run their non-division schedule through the NFC East and AFC West, not to mention the pitfalls within the AFC East with two games apiece against the upstart Jets and division powerhouse Buffalo. Still, their aerial game is lethal with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Rookie Devon Archane adds to a deep backfield with Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson. Some moves on the defensive side of the ball, including the acquisition of Jalen Ramsey, give new coordinator Vic Fangio a real chance to boost this defense’s profile in 2023. With a lot going wrong last year, they made it, and I look for them to do so again this season at a decent -130 price.

Seattle Seahawks (-120): A pretty decent line price for a team that made it last season. There seems to be a feeling that they’re not a serious team or that last season was an aberration as the Seahawks well surpassed expectations. Geno Smith found a new lease on life, and having two stud receivers like Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf doesn’t hurt, and rookie Jaxon Smith Njigba could provide another good option. There could be some easy wins within the division, with the Rams and Cardinals not projected to be great. Their non-division schedule doesn’t seem too strenuous. Zach Charbonnet joins Kenneth Walker in a run game that could make an impact. A lot of things stand out as potential problems, but with Pete Carroll able to get a lot out of this group, I see them making the postseason once again.

Best Bets to Not Make the Playoffs

Cleveland Browns (-125): Whether it’s their schedule, the toughness of their division this season, or the suspicion that Deshaun Watson will struggle to reclaim his star status in this offense, I don’t see much optimism with the Browns this season. Amari Cooper is a nice weapon, and they still have Nick Chubb upon which to rely. But whether guys like Elijah Moore, Marquise Goodwin, or rookie Cedric Tillman can lift this offense to new heights is iffy. They put a lot of money into Watson, limiting their ability to pursue the kind of talent they need to make them contenders. You want to make the allowance that things could look different if Watson benefits from a full camp, less overall scrutiny and somehow reclaims his form. Anything short of that could have the Browns struggling to get to .500.

Denver Broncos (-230): It’s hard to deny that there could be improvement. With Sean Payton now in town with his staff, we won’t see coaches over their heads anymore. You figure this has to help Russell Wilson relocate his form. A healthy Javonte Williams won’t hurt, either. And they absolutely need to find some consistency with their top receiving talent, namely Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton. I’m of the feeling that Russell’s best playing is in the rearview, and while something can be salvaged, the division and conference is too crowded with potential to make room in the postseason for the Broncos this year.

Minnesota Vikings (-130): An 0-1 mark in the postseason for the last three seasons has the Vikes looking to make a push this season. If Detroit isn’t what everyone is thinking, they could be in good shape in a division whose longtime kingpin could slide this year in the Packers. Head coach Kevin O’Connell starts his second season, bringing in Brian Flores as his defensive coordinator. They lost Adam Thielen but still have mega-productive WR Justin Jefferson, along with rookie Jordan Addison. Word is Dalvin Cook is on his way out, but Alexander Mattison has shown to be capable. And getting TJ Hockenson late last season paid off with this offense. It’s not easy to poo-poo a 13-win team from last year, but I sense less good fortune this season and a coming down to earth that could have Minnesota on the outside looking in come playoff time.