Bengals vs. Steelers: Week 18 Spread Prediction and Best Bet

Cincinnati Bengals (8-8 SU, 10-6 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6 SU, 10-6 ATS)
NFL Football Week 18
Date/Time: Saturday, January 4, 2025 at 8PM EST
Where: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
TV: ESPN

The Cincinnati Bengals take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in an AFC North battle that will wrap up the regular season for each team. The Steelers, following a 10-3 start to the season, have dropped three straight, including last week’s flat 29-10 loss to the Chiefs. They look to establish some momentum or risk entering the postseason as easy pickings in the AFC. The Bengals, meanwhile, have spent the last handful of weeks trying to save themselves from a lost season, winning four in a row to get to 8-8, including last week’s big season-saving 30-24 overtime win over the Broncos, with Joe Burrow connecting with Tee Higgins for his third TD of the day, showing how hard it has been to put away the Bengals in recent weeks. What’s the move for this big one out of Pittsburgh on Saturday?

Points to Consider

Playoff ramifications are at play in this matchup. Despite having floundered down the stretch, the Steelers are locked into a playoff spot. They could still technically win the division in the event that the Ravens lose to the Browns, and they beat the Bengals this week. However, that result will be known when the Steelers hit the field or, at worst, shortly after the game starts. The convenient narrative is that coach Mike Tomlin will be angling hard this week to clear the locker room of this recent losing stench that fills the air. But it’s still dicey when the team you take finds out that game really doesn’t count for anything.

The Bengals will have no such information available when they hit the field. For them to get back into the playoffs, some things are going to need to happen, one of them naturally being them winning this game. Then two more things need to happen, both taking place the next day on Sunday—the Broncos losing to the Chiefs and the Dolphins losing to the Jets. Cincinnati winning this game appears to be the easiest part of that equation, as the Chiefs might be resting their starters against a desperate Broncos team while also banking on the Jets to deliver against a Miami team that hasn’t been eliminated. But their postseason path being problematic at best shouldn’t impugn the effort you have to figure they’re going to deliver this week.

One of the last good moments this season for the Steelers and the last hiccup for the Bengals before embarking on this winning streak was a week 13 win for Pittsburgh in Cincy, 44-38. Russell Wilson threw three TDs and had 414 yards and spread the ball around well to all of his weapons. They ran the ball pretty well, had their defense making a dent with a defensive TD, and were doing pretty well. They’re hoping to recapture that this week, with their only subsequent success since then being a win over the lowly Browns.

Issues for Cincy

We see a Cincy team that at one point fell to 4-8 against this very Steelers team that has already locked up their playoff spot and is now favored on the road against this same team. Still, is everything about the Bengals that allowed them to start at 4-8 just gone now? Or does just looking at the score from the first game between these teams tell the story of a Bengals team that still showcases good offense with a defense that can undermine the entire operation? And while the Bengals got a quality win last week against the Broncos, they had beaten Cleveland, Dallas, and Tennessee in the weeks leading up to that. Their defense maybe caught some breaks in the matchup department. And even last week against a hit-and-miss Denver offense, the Cincinnati “D” wasn’t that great, either. While not the liability it was earlier in the season, it’s still a unit that can’t be totally trusted in this context—even with Russell Wilson and the Pittsburgh offense struggling lately.

With the Steelers having played the Eagles, Ravens, and the Chiefs in their last three games, we might be overstating where each team truly is entering the final week of the regular season. Not to dispute the overall vibe that Cincy is doing well and the Steelers aren’t, with that much being true, but would the Bengals have been doing this well if facing who the Steelers have faced these last several weeks? Isn’t there a chance that a Pittsburgh offense that labored against three pretty good defenses in their last three games can look different at home against a bad Bengals’ defense? And after having their last two at home, the Bengals now come to Pittsburgh, a familiar divisional setting but still a place where the anticipated weather could have an effect on Joe Burrow and this high-flying offense. Obviously, anything that makes this game favor the element of defense would not be to the Bengals’ liking.

Lay the Points

These types of spots can be tough. A team that looks like they’re really going for it can fall flat at the last moment. That Cincy defense can overturn any analysis that seemingly made sense heading into the game. One thing about the first game that stuck with me was the ineffectiveness of a Steelers’ defense that allowed a season-high in points to this Bengals team in that game. I look for more of the same, and the possibility that the Steelers hit the field knowing a divisional title is off the table. Against a Bengals team that is really leaving it all out there on the field, that doesn’t excite me, either. I’ll lay the short number on the Bengals in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Cincinnati Bengals minus 1.5 points.