Bengals vs. Steelers Week 16 Odds, Analysis, ML Pick

Cincinnati Bengals (8-6 SU, 6-6-2 ATS) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7, 7-7 ), 12/23/23

When: 4:30 pm ET Saturday, Dec. 23

Where: Acrisure Stadium

TV: NBC

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Cin -2/Pit +2
Money line: Cinci -130/Pitt +115
Total: 37

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Week 16 in the NFL offers up a Saturday double-header to watch and bet, beginning with this AFC North grudge match between the Bengals and Steelers in Pittsburgh.

Cincinnati is 3-1 since Jake Browning took over at quarterback for the injured Joe Burrow. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh wishes it had a Jake Browning.

Both teams are still right in the hunt in the AFC wild-card race, so this is a big one.

NFL Betting Odds

The Week 16 NFL betting market opened the Bengals as two-point divisional road favorites for Saturday, with an over/under of right around 38. Early betting action then edged that spread to 2.5.

Bengals-Steelers Betting Preview

Cincinnati continued its recent hot run with Browning at QB by rallying to beat Minnesota in overtime last Saturday 27-24. The Bengals trailed that game 17-3 into the fourth quarter, rallied to force OT at 24-24 – that touchdown by Higgins was fantastic – then won it in extra time with a super defensive stop and a field goal.

Cincinnati got out-played by the Vikings for about three-quarters of that game and got beat all over the stat sheet. But the Bengals made a bunch of big plays in crunch time to steal victory from the jaws of defeat.

Two weeks ago, Cincinnati produced 385 yards of offense and beat Indianapolis 34-14. Three weeks ago, the Bengals banged out 491 yards of offense and beat Jacksonville 34-31 in overtime.

So Cincinnati is 3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS since losing Burrow.

At 8-6 overall, the Bengals would be the No. 6 seed in the AFC if the playoffs started today.

Pittsburgh got out-gained by Indianapolis 372-216, out-rushed 170-74, and lost the turnover battle 3-0.

The Steelers have now been out-gained by 12 of their 14 opponents this season.

Two weeks ago, Pittsburgh managed just 264 yards of offense and lost to New England 21-18. Three weeks ago, the Steelers gained 317 yards and lost to Arizona 24-10.

At 7-7 overall, Pittsburgh trails 8-6 Indianapolis by a game in the battle for the No. 7 spot in the AFC playoff standings.

On the personnel front, the Steelers are going with 3rd-stringer Mason Rudolph as the starter at QB this week. And hey, why not? Considering Pittsburgh’s getting squat from that position as of late. The Steelers also list RB Najee Harris and two starters along the O-line as questionable.

On the other sideline, Cincinnati WR Ja’Maar Chase left last week’s game with a bad shoulder and is listed as Q.

Common Opponents

These teams have played nine common opponents this season, members of their own division, the AFC South and the NFC West. Cincinnati played those foes to 5-5 SU, 4-5-1, and -56 yards per game; Pittsburgh to 4-6 SU and ATS and -89 YPG.

Bengals-Steelers Recent History

These rivals split their season series last year by scores of 23-20 in overtime and 37-30. Neither Browning nor Rudolph started either of those games. Then, four weeks ago, Pittsburgh took the first meeting between these teams this season 16-10 in Cincinnati. That game was Browning’s first start in place of Burrow.

The Steelers totally out-played the Bengals that day, one of the few times they’ve done that all season.

NFL Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh is 4-2. Both SU and ATS are coming off a loss this season.
• Rudolph is 5-4-1 SU, 7-3 ATS as an NFL starter, all with the Steelers.
• Home dogs are 35-45 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

The Overs are 8-6 in Bengals games this season and are averaging 44 total points.

The Unders are 4-10 in Steelers games, which are averaging 36 points.

The Unders are 125-99 (56 percent) in the NFL this season.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Cincinnati”s playing the much better ball as of late, no doubt about it. However, the Bengals are coming off a big comeback effort last week against Minnesota; we consider them decent candidates for a letdown this week. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is coming off a poor performance against the Colts. But we remember when the Steelers laid an egg against Houston earlier this season, then bounced back the next week to beat Baltimore. And they’ve done that three other times this season—also, Pittsburgh’s won games with Rudolph before. And the Steelers out-played Cincinnati a month ago. We’re betting on Pittsburgh on the money line on Saturday.