Bengals vs. Chargers Prediction: Can Cincinnati Save Their Season?

Cincinnati Bengals (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS)
NFL Football Week 11
Date/Time: Sunday Night Football, November 17, 2024, at 8:20 PM EST
Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
TV: NBC

The Cincinnati Bengals come into SoFi Stadium on Sunday for an AFC showdown with the Los Angeles Chargers. For the Bengals, things are getting desperate. At 4-6, they really need to start stringing together some success, and it won’t be easy on the road against the 6-3 Chargers. The Bengals are coming off the long week following a particularly-painful 35-34 Thursday Night Football loss to the Ravens, when a two-point conversion failed toward the end of a hard-fought game. The Chargers had no such drama, getting their third straight win on Sunday with a 27-17 win over the Titans. Who should we back this week in Inglewood?

Major Theme in this Game

It’s hard for one to not immediately ponder the Cincinnati offense vs. Los Angeles defense part of this equation. A big part of why the Chargers enter this game at 6-3 is their defense, averaging 13 points allowed per game. On the other side is a Cincinnati offense that looks to be in fine working order. Even in losing fashion last Thursday, the Bengals still showed what they’re capable of doing with 428 yards from Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase hauling in three TDs on 264 yards receiving. The Chargers have certainly been stout on that side of the ball. But maybe they’ve played the teams that helped them look a little better than they are, also playing some teams at the right time. They’ve yet to be tested this way, with all the things on offense that the Bengals bring to the table.

That shouldn’t camouflage another aspect of this matchup, which directly speaks to why a Cincy team with so much firepower can be in such a predicament where they need to start winning, or they can kiss this season goodbye. While, like the Chargers, the Cincinnati defense has done well in certain spots against the right teams, they have been chewed up and spit out by the better offenses they have played this season. The Chargers might not qualify as being one of those teams, but they’re not like the ones the Cincinnati defense has done well against, either.

Trying to Get a Read on the Chargers’ Offense

This side of the ball is a big part of why it’s hard to be too gung-ho about the Bolts in this spot. Different aspects of this offense can be so languid, and now, with Harbaugh’s defense-heavy sensibilities in place, it’s often very dull. While guys like Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were perhaps past their window of success, not bringing in a real number-one receiver to replace their production is something that is costing them, with no real dependable aerial targets for QB Justin Herbert to lean on. They got RB Gus Edwards back, and maybe they can get some heat created on the ground between him and JK Dobbins. But after a good start in that regard, the Chargers have hit the skids a bit on the ground. Still, they’ve scored 27, 27, and 26 points in their last three games (3-0) and have been consistent, if not terribly thrilling.

Unlike Cincinnati, however, you don’t get the feeling that the Chargers’ offense is capable of anything that special. They’re in a nice spot at home against a defense that has undermined the entire Cincy operation, taking a perennial contender and making them so they’re a team hanging on for dear life. And still, the prognosis isn’t terribly positive. And even with the Bengals going against a defense that has been the stingiest in the league, it’s their offense that actually has the more positive outlook in some respects. Still, even within what might be a narrow range of different outcomes for the Chargers offense, this would be a spot where a higher-end version of what they do should surface.

It’s just difficult. On one side is a quarterback, Justin Herbert, who we know has talent. But with his prized aerial pieces being Ladd McConkey, Quintin Johnston, Josh Palmer, and the like, he just doesn’t have the best stuff around him. Dobbins can be effective, but things have really soured after a fast start. Gus Edwards is dull. Tight end Will Dissly has been effective in this offense, but even saying that out loud really tells you what the Chargers are down to in terms of offensive pieces. And when you see superstars on the opposite sideline, this disparity can really stand out and resonate.

Middle Ground

Sometimes, in games where the characterizations of different things are so stark, you end up seeing a muted version of what you thought would happen. In this game, that would result in a Cincy offense continuing to be bad, but not so bad that they can’t keep the Chargers in check to some degree. And while the Chargers’ defense won’t be able to count on the near-shutdowns they’ve orchestrated in recent weeks, they’re also not going to allow the Bengals free-for-alls we’ve seen at times in recent weeks. And in the end, you get what should be a competitive well-matched game.

Lay the Points

I picture a tight game. The spread is critical because if the Bengals were getting the points a 4-6 team should be getting on the road against a 6-3 squad, it might put this out of range. But with the spread somewhat negligible, it puts it in a range where the move might be to just take the overall more-functional and together team, which is the Chargers. And not that a stance on the Bengals can’t be justified just with their desperation and an offense that can explode on anyone, but I think a stance on the Chargers has a bit more value this week. I’m taking the Chargers.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Los Angeles Chargers minus 1.5 points.