Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns Spread Play

Cincinnati Bengals (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Cleveland Browns (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

Week 1 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 1PM EDT

Where: Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio

TV: CBS

Point Spread: CIN -2.5/CLE +2.5 (Bovada – Home of the web’s BEST live betting platform!)

Over/Under Total: 48

The Cincinnati Bengals make the in-state trip to face the Cleveland Browns in a week one AFC North showdown. The Bengals are looking for another season of contention, making two conference title games and a Super Bowl in their last two seasons. Cleveland, conversely, is coming off a pair of rough years, including a 7-10 mark last year. Kevin Stefanski is back for his fourth season, and maybe with a full campaign from Deshaun Watson and some more personnel continuity, they can bounce back and get back to where they were when Stefanski got them to 11 wins in his first season. Interestingly, despite each team occupying different levels the last two years, it is actually the Browns who hold a 3-1 edge in these teams’ last four meetings.

Should We Heighten Our Respect for the Browns?

Despite some shaky recent results, they have a lot going for them. You’d think shaking the rust off and getting back on a more regulated normal schedule could help Watson live up to his huge contract just a little bit this season. They have some nice things Watson can lean on, including a decent receiver corps led by Amari Cooper, a good back in Nick Chubb, and an offensive line that might end up being one of the best in the conference. They added a giant tackle with a high pick and should be able to push some people around this season.

What the Browns are hoping they see materialize quickly is a defense that just might have made enough moves to go with what they already have to form a special unit. I think Jim Schwartz coming over to be the defensive coordinator really helps, as does getting Za’Darius Smith and Dalvin Tomlinson to fortify that line and maybe open things up a bit for Myles Garrett. Their corners are good, led by Denzel Ward (questionable). And in this game, they’re going to need to come up with something, as an in-tune Cincinnati offense can be a scary thing. In the last two years, they’ve matched up pretty well, and with some enhancements in personnel and leadership, will we see more of the same? Burrow’s line isn’t great, and he holds onto the ball for a long time. This defense, with their added element of pass-rush, could really put the hurt on Burrow, who could be less than 100%.

What Cincinnati Needs to Do?

Part one of this equation would be to start fast. In their last four seasons, their only week one win was an OT win over Minnesota. I’d expect a home Browns team to be chomping at the bit on both sides of the ball, ready to make an impression, so the Bengals can’t be caught sleeping or be slow out of the gate. It’s a team with some issues, but with a potent offense and a very talented QB, they’re going for Super Bowl glory this season, and their urgency should match that. Charlie Jones could aid a receiver package already brimming with talent with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. Joe Mixon is back. Irv Smith, Jr. comes in at tight end, while they added T Orlando Brown, Jr. to the front. Still, the offensive line lags well behind the other facets of this Cincy offense. Against this improved Browns’ defensive front seven, we’ll see how that resonates.

The Browns will also be taking on a Bengals’ defense that can be a bit hit-and-miss. In big games, they seem to dial up the right recipe. And even when going against talented quarterbacks, the Cincy “D” can often come up with the right game plan. But the real talent on this team is on the other side of the ball. They are strong up-front, as is usually the case with the Bengals, led by Trey Hendrickson. DJ Reader, and Sam Hubbard. Three starters are gone from a secondary that figures to take a step back. How far of a step will be tested by a Cleveland passing game that shouldn’t be bad and has the potential on some weeks even to be explosive?

It’s true that the Browns have a better offensive line, along with an offense that on the right week can go off. They have more talent than the Bengals do on defense. They are at home and eager to make an impression that they’re not the afterthought they’ve been the last few seasons. But even if it’s overstated how much quarterbacks matter or how this is a passing league, there is truth to it. The Bengals look to drown out all these perceived edges the Browns might have in these individual areas, with Burrow connecting with the best receiver crew in the NFL and getting in the end zone. A lot of these issues, such as problems up front, Burrow’s sack totals, and overall mid-pack defense, are not new to this team, and they have been among the best AFC teams the past two seasons. And it’s because when Burrow dials it in aerially, and you’re getting giant games from Chase, Higgins, or both, it has a way of making a lot of other problems go away. The calf injury suffered in camp by Burrow could be an item of some concern, though they are presumably planning on him being ready to go for this spot.

Take the Points

I expect the Browns to be at a level of high energy as they try to satisfy their home faithful with what could be an invigorating week one win. I think Burrow’s leg issues could force the Bengals’ offense to adjust slightly, and they will be doing so against a defense that might not cooperate. A depreciated Cincy secondary will be up against what could be a better Watson aerial attack. Combine that all with how well the Browns have played the Bengals lately; it leads to me thinking having 2.5 points at the end of what seems like a close one will feel good. I’ll take Cleveland.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Cleveland Browns plus 2.5 points.

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