Bears vs. Vikings Betting Preview: Spread and Total Line Picks

by | Last updated Dec 16, 2024 | nfl

Sam Darnold QB Minnesota Vikings

NFL MNF Betting Preview: Bears at Vikings
Date: December 16, 2024
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Current Line: Vikings -7 (+102)
Total: 43.5

Key Injuries: Bears will be without starting center Ryan Bates and left tackle Braxton Jones, significantly weakening their offensive line protection.

The Rundown

The Minnesota Vikings (11-2) host the Chicago Bears (4-9) in a pivotal divisional matchup. Minnesota enters on a six-game winning streak overall, and are 6-1 SU at home with the only loss being by two points to the Lions. The Bears’ offensive line injuries come at a critical time, facing a Vikings defense that ranks 4th in sacks.

Statistical Breakdown

Key Performance Metrics

  • Vikings scoring differential: +7.62 points per game
  • Bears road scoring (includes London game): 20.08 PPG (23rd) vs Vikings home defense: 18.25 PPG (5th)
  • Vikings home rushing defense: 90.33 YPG (2nd) vs Bears road rushing: 95.40 YPG (25th)
  • Recent H2H: Vikings 7-3 SU, 6-3-1 ATS in last 10 meetings

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Critical Matchup Analysis

The Bears’ offensive line situation is particularly concerning given these efficiency metrics:

  • Yards Per Point: Bears 14.77 (offense) vs Vikings 18.31 (defense)
  • Yards Per Pass: Bears 8.79 vs Vikings defense 10.22
  • Vikings generating 3.1 sacks per game vs depleted Bears O-line

Situational Trends

  • Bears are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games
  • Vikings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games
  • Under is 8-1 in Bears’ last 9 road games
  • Under is 5-2 in Vikings’ last 7 home games
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Recent Form Analysis

Vikings have won their last three games by an average margin of 8.33 points (31.67 PPG scored). Bears have lost their last three, allowing 30.33 PPG during this stretch. The offensive line injuries project to further impact their scoring potential.

The Bottom Line

The combination of Bears’ offensive line injuries, Vikings’ strong home defense (especially against the run), and Chicago’s road struggles (0-5 SU this season) creates a compelling case for Minnesota. The Under also merits strong consideration given both teams’ recent scoring patterns and Chicago’s offensive line issues.

Score Prediction:

Vikings 26, Bears 16

Best Bets (Confidence Rating)

Vikings -7 (+102) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Under 43.5 (-102) ⭐⭐⭐
Vikings 1H -4 ⭐⭐

Primary factors supporting these selections:

  • Bears’ depleted offensive line vs Vikings’ 4th-ranked pass rush
  • Vikings 6-1 SU at home with 5-2 ATS record
  • Bears 0-5 SU on road with 1-6-1 ATS in last 8 road games
  • Under trending strongly for both teams (8-1 in Bears road games)

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