Bears vs. Commanders Pick: Betting on the Run Game
Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders Betting Analysis & Free Pick | 10/27/24
When: 4:25 pm ET Sunday, Oct. 27
Where: Northwest Stadium
TV: CBS
NFL Betting Odds
Spread: Chicago -1.5, Washington +1.5
Moneyline: Chicago -125, Washington +105
Over/Under: 43.5
Rookie Quarterback Showdown: Bears vs. Commanders
In what could be a clash between two super rookie quarterbacks, the 4-2 Bears take on the 5-2 Commanders on Sunday afternoon in Landover. Chicago QB Caleb Williams started a bit slowly this season but is showing progress in leading the Bears to three straight victories.
Meanwhile, Washington QB Jayden Daniels looked good from the start, as the Commanders won five of their last six games. Unfortunately, Daniels is nursing sore ribs that might keep him from playing Sunday, which makes this game challenging to handicap from several days away. But we’ll take a shot at it.
NFL Week 8 Betting Odds Movement
The NFL Week 8 betting market opened Washington at -2.5 for Sunday, with an O/U of right around 48. Early betting action, working off word of Daniels’ situation, then flipped Chicago into a 1.5-point favorite.
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Bears-Commanders Betting Preview
Chicago is 3-0 SU and ATS its last three times out after beating Jacksonville in London two weeks ago 35-16. The Bears then enjoyed last weekend off.
Chicago, a 1-point dog against the Jaguars, fell down 3-0 early but scored the next 21 points of the game. The Bears later allowed Jacksonville to get within 21-10 but tacked on two scores and eased home from there. Chicago out-gained the Jags 373-278 and won the ground battle 152-68.
Bears Gaining Momentum
The Bears started 1-2 this season, producing only 29 points in back-to-back losses to Houston and Indianapolis. But Chicago then beat the Rams 24-18 and Carolina 36-10 before beating Jacksonville. Perhaps most importantly, the Bears have +6 on the turnover margin over their last three games.
At 4-2 overall, Chicago would be the No. 7 seed in the NFC if the playoffs started today. The Bears are also on pace to play over their season wins O/U, which was 8.5.
Commanders Look to Overcome Injury Setbacks
Meanwhile, Washington is 5-1 SU, 5-0-1 ATS over its last six games after disposing of Carolina last Sunday 40-7. The Commanders, favored at -9.5, used a pick-6 to lead 27-0 at the half, then scored the first 10 points of the second half and eased home from there.
Washington lost QB Daniels in the first quarter to a rib injury but backup Marcus Mariota stepped in and directed touchdown drives of 59, 92, and 59 yards. The Commanders out-gained the Panthers 421-180, ran the ball for 214 yards, and won the turnover battle 2-0.
Prop Bets and Offensive Insights
On the prop board, TE Zach Ertz scored his first touchdown of the season at a price of +240.
Washington opened this season with a loss at Tampa Bay, then beat the Giants, Bengals, Cardinals, and Browns, putting up some nice offensive numbers along the way. The Commanders then lost at Baltimore 30-23, although that game wasn’t quite as close as that final score might indicate.
Injury Updates
On the injury front, Daniels, as of mid-week, is listed as questionable for Sunday while Chicago lists two starting DBs as questionable.
Previous Meeting Recap
These teams met most recently back in Week 5 of last season, a 40-20 Bears victory also at Landover. Justin Fields threw four TD passes for Chicago that night while Sam Howell threw for 388 yards playing catch-up for Washington. Both these teams are better now than they were then.
Bears-Commanders Betting Angle
Washington scored first in four of its seven games this season. Chicago has yet to score first this season. Teams that scored first are 62-45 SU and 68-38 ATS in the NFL this season.
NFL Betting Trends
- Home teams are 49-54 SU and 41-61 ATS this season.
- Favorites are 71-36 SU, 57-49 ATS.
- Home dogs are a dismal 9-28 SU, 12-25 ATS.
- Mariota is 34-40 as an NFL starter.
Totals Report
- Totals are split 3-3 in Bears games this season, which are averaging 42 total points.
- Overs are 5-2 in Commanders games, which are averaging 53 points.
- On the season, the totals are split 53-53.
Touchdown Props
- Chicago WR Odunze, third on the team in targets this season with 31 but with just one touchdown, is catching +270 to score one TD and +1900 to score two.
- Washington TE Ertz, with 18 targets over the last three weeks, is catching +300 to score one touchdown and +2400 to score two.
Free NFL Betting Pick
Washington with Daniels is really dangerous; Washington with Mariota might not be bad, either. Regardless of who plays, we expect the Commanders to win the ground battle in this game, and so far this NFL season, teams that out-rush their opponents are 77-30 SU, 75-31 ATS. Also, the Bears are a little banged-up in the secondary. We like Washington for the win.
