NFL Week 18 Chicago at Green Bay Spread Pick: Can the Pack Stop the Bears

Chicago Bears (7-9 SU, 8-6-2 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (8-8, 8-8), 1/7/24

When: 4:25 pm ET Sunday, Jan. 7

Where: Lambeau Field

TV: CBS

Point spread: Chi +3/GB -3

Money line: Da Bears +145/Pack -165

Total: 44

The Packers and Bears opened this NFL season together in Chicago, and they’ll finish it together Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field. Green Bay, through a slew of ups and downs this season, can make the playoffs with a win Sunday. Chicago, only a game worse than the Packers in the standings, can’t make the playoffs, but they can sure play spoiler to their longtime rivals.

Green Bay’s owned the Bears for quite a while, extending back through the previous couple of quarterbacks. Chicago would love to put an end to that, too.

How are we playing this game with our free Bears/Packers Week 18 pick?

NFL Betting Odds

The Week 18 NFL betting market opened Green Bay as a three-point favorite for Sunday, with an over/under of right around 44. Both numbers were holding steady in the early betting action.

Bears Betting Preview

Chicago is 4-1 SU over its last five games and 6-1-1 ATS over its last eight after beating Atlanta at home Sunday 37-17. The Bears scored the first 14 points of the game, led 21-7 at the half, and let the Falcons get within 27-17 in the fourth quarter but tacked on 10 points and covered at -2.5.

Chicago out-gained Atlanta 432-307, ran the ball for 192 yards, 147 by guys not named Fields, and won the turnover battle 4-0.

So the Bears have out-gained four of their last five opponents and out-rushed each of their last 13 foes!

Two weeks ago, Chicago ran the ball for 250 yards and beat Arizona 27-16. Three weeks ago, the Bears blew a game at Cleveland and lost 20-17. In fact, Chicago’s last two losses both came in games they led by double digits in the fourth quarter.

That’s how close the Bears are to owning a seven-game winning streak.

Alas, at 7-9 overall, Chicago is eliminated from playoff contention. But you know the Bears would absolutely love to spoil Green Bay’s playoff hopes.

Packers Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Packers come into Sunday following back-to-back road wins, including a 33-10 decision at Minnesota Sunday night. Green Bay, playing against a Vikings team starting a rookie at QB, scored the first 10 points, led 23-3 at the half, and never let Minnesota back in the game. Unlike they did with Carolina the week before.

The Packers out-gained the Vikings 470-211 and won the ground battle 177-67.

But actually, Sunday was the first time in four games Green Bay out-gained an opponent.

We bet against the Packers Sunday mainly because their defense had been so porous as of late. That unit recently gave up a ton of yardage to the Giants, Tampa Bay, and the Panthers, and those teams aren’t exactly offensive powers. Fortunately for Green Bay, Minnesota is having serious problems at the QB spot right now.

Two weeks ago, Green Bay blew a 16-point, 4th-quarter lead but kicked a late field goal to win at Carolina 33-30.

At 8-8 overall, the Packers are in the playoffs with a win Sunday. There is a chance Green Bay could make the playoffs even if it loses Sunday, but that relies upon a couple of outcomes, including a Seattle loss, and the Seahawks play at the same time as the Packers Sunday afternoon at Arizona.

On the injury front, Green Bay is really banged up at the skills spots.

Bears-Packers Recent History

Green Bay, regardless of who’s playing QB, owns a nine-game winning streak on Chicago, going 9-0 ATS along the way. Back in Week 1, the Packers took the first meetings between the teams this season 38-20 at Soldier Field.

That game was only 10-6 at the half before Green Bay pulled away. Also, that game played over a total of 41.

Common Opponents

These division rivals played ten common opponents this season: NFC North and South members and the AFC West. Green Bay played those foes to 6-6 both SU and ATS but -27 yards per game, Chicago to 5-7 SU, 6-4-2 ATS and +6 YPG.

Totals Report

• The Overs are 8-7 in Bears games this season, which are averaging 45 total points.
• The Overs are 10-6 in Packers games, which are averaging 44 points.
• The Overs are 5-2 over the last seven meetings between these teams.
• The Unders are 138-118 (54 percent) in the NFL this season.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Chicago owns the better running game and the much better run defense, and that’s almost enough for us right there. Also, there’s a good case to be made the Bears are playing the better ball as of late. They’re also certainly the healthier team right now. Green Bay out-played Chicago earlier this season, but the Bears have improved since then. We like Chicago Sunday for the win on the money line.

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