Bears at Colts: NFL Week 3 Moneyline Pick

NFL Week 3 – Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)
When: Sunday, September 22nd at 1:00 PM EST
Watch: CBS

Betting Odds
Spread: Indianapolis Colts -1.0
Over/Under: 44.0

 
A midwestern battle between the AFC and NFC is set for this Sunday as the Chicago Bears will take the short trip to Indianapolis to face the Colts. Injuries and inconsistent play from young talent will be driving factors in how this game plays out, but there is plenty of optimism in both team facilities for the remainder of the 2024 season. This matchup has all the makings of an intense battle, and there is no clear-cut favorite, as indicated by a single point on the betting line at Bovada. While these two teams don’t play often, the games between the two have been even as of late. The Colts and Bears look very different since they last met in October 2020. Let’s take a look at the key playmakers and statistics through the first two weeks and see who I am backing prior to Sunday’s kickoff.

Bears Betting Preview

The Chicago Bears made a franchise-altering selection in the NFL draft last year when they took USC quarterback Caleb Williams as the first overall pick. Williams was able to do what few rookies have and win his season opener at home against the Titans. In week 2, the Bears lost 19-13 to the Texans in a primetime Sunday Night Football matchup.

As with any rookie QB, Williams has had his fair share of struggles as he makes his transition to the NFL. Through two games, he has yet to throw a touchdown pass and is only averaging 133.5 passing yards per game. His biggest asset has been his ability to extend plays with his legs and currently averages 5.9 yards per carry on scrambling attempts.

The Bears made a point to surround their rookie QB with offensive playmakers to help ease his transition. DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and fellow rookie Rome Odunze headline one of the best wide receiving cores in the entire league. Chicago also features tight end tandem Cole Kmet and journeyman Gerald Everett.

Injuries have plagued the receivers early on as Allen and Odunze are both nursing lower body injuries. Allen has not practiced yet this week and may miss his second straight game. Inconsistent play has resulted in dismal offensive stats for the Bears, who find themselves ranked 31st in total offense, 32nd in passing yards, and 28th in rushing yards.

The addition of running back D’Andre Swift was made to take some of the burden off the young QB, but a porous offensive line has only led to 48 rushing yards for Swift to date. The defensive unit has kept Chicago in both games and is currently in the top-10 in terms of total yards and points allowed.

They are also the 3rd best group in third-down situations, limiting opponents to a 25% conversion rate. The Bears have tallied six sacks, two interceptions, and two forced fumbles as a group. They will look to continue that momentum in week 3.

Colts Betting preview

The Colts will return home to Lucas Oil Stadium in search of their first win of the season after failing to take advantage of the Packers’ misfortunes a week ago. The Colts also dropped their season opener to the Texans in a game that came down to the wire.

The Colts’ offensive production has been sporadic at best, but they utilize a balanced approach between the pass and run. Quarterback Anthony Richardson has amassed 200 yards passing in both games but has thrown more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (3). He will face another tough test in the Chicago defense, and ball security will be critical.

Running back Jonathan Taylor has averaged 5.4 yards per carry and 75.5 yards per game through the first two weeks. He has been able to help the Colts sustain drives and pickup first downs, but he has only found the endzone once.

The Colts, like the Bears, are only scoring 18.5 points per game. Michael Pittman is the clear number one wide receiver on Indy’s squad, but a 7.4 yards per reception stat line is worrisome. Alec Pierce and Ashton Dulin have deep-threat potential, but if the Colts want to succeed, they need Pittman to be more efficient.

On the other side of the ball, Indy can’t stop a nosebleed, let alone the run. This group is ranked dead last and has allowed opponents to rush for 237 yards per game. They are stronger against the pass but have been unable to get off the field and allow opponents to convert 3rd downs at a 54.8% rate. There is a lot to clean up if they hope to put an end to their losing streak, but a return home should help.

Bears vs. Colts Moneyline Pick

 
My Pick: Chicago Bears ML (-105)
I have faith that, at some point, Caleb Williams will show why he was selected as the number one pick. It may be this week against the Colts, but even if he is just average, the running game should feast against this Colts’ D. The Bears have too many offensive weapons for the Colts to contain, and the fact that Indy cannot get off the field on 3rd down is a recipe for disaster. Chicago’s defense will force Richardson to try and beat them through the air by implementing a game plan that limits Jonathan Taylor’s production. Richardson will make a costly turnover at some point, and the Bears will capitalize.