Barking Dog: Miami Dolphins vs. Dallas Cowboys Pick

Miami Dolphins (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
NFL Football Week 3
Date/Time: Sunday – September 22nd – 1:00pm EST
Where:AT&T Stadium – Arlington, Texas
TV: FOX

Point Spread: MIA +21.5/DAL -21.5
Over/Under Total: 46.5

I DON’T EVEN KNOW WHERE TO BEGIN WITH THIS GAME:

I usually take this time to write about the matchup of the game at hand. I discuss their records, how they fared last week, whether or not either team had any significant injuries, etc., etc. But I cannot get over how bad the Miami Dolphins are. These dudes straight up suck. Even a few years back when the Cleveland Browns were the laughing stock of the NFL losing 31 of 32 games or whatever the hell it was, at least they were somewhat competitive. They would blow leads, miss field goals, give up late scores…they would just find ways to lose. The Dolphins have pretty much found themselves down two scores before the coin toss. They are just flat out, 100%, PATHETIC.

So with that said, we do have a game to breakdown this week, and the line looks more like Alabama versus Vanderbilt or Clemson versus Georgia Tech than an NFL game, but we gotta work with what we got. So we have the 2-0 Dallas Cowboys, who once again think they are Super Bowl bound after two wins over mediocre at best opponents and we have the Miami Dolphins who may be so bad that the commissioner allows them the first three picks in this coming NFL Draft. But seriously, this game has all the makings of being a massive blowout in favor of the Cowboys. Dallas is better in every area than the Dolphins…EVERY AREA. So…with that said… the Dallas Cowboys are sitting as 21.5 favorites at home over the Miami Dolphins. 21.5…C’mon…you cannot be serious. What makes this even weirder for me is the fact that I think Dallas can cover. Hell, I think Dallas WILL COVER. Yeah, you are hearing it right here. Mr. I HATE THE BIG NFL UNDERDOG is saying that he likes the Dallas Cowboys minus the three touchdowns and a hook come Sunday. But guess what? I refuse to bet it. There is no way, absolutely NO WAY that I would ever allow myself to bet an NFL favorite of three touchdowns or more. NEVER. I never have, because quite honestly it may have only happened five times in life a spread that big in pro football, and the odds just do not work in the Cowboys favor. Yes, the Dallas Cowboys are going to win, no question, but 21.5 point faves…Nah.

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HOW THE PUBLIC IS BETTING THE MIAMI DOLPHINS AND DALLAS COWBOYS GAME:

So I told you what I thought of this insane point spread of 21.5, let’s take a look at what the public perception is. Just as I thought, everyone likes the Cowboys to cover. As of late Tuesday night, 64% of the betting action was on the Cowboys to cover the three touchdowns while just 36% thinks Miami keeps it…somewhat respectable. As for the total points, the public is torn with about 51% liking the over and 49% on the under. These are very interesting numbers for a strangely handicapped game.

MY OFFICIAL PREDICTION…AND WHY I THINK SO:

So I stopped myself earlier. I said Dallas could and will cover but I just ain’t buying it. Not because I think Miami can win. Not because I think Dallas is overrated (which they are), I am basing this pick on straight numbers. First off, the public is way too happy with the 21.5 points being given up. I am skeptical about taking college teams giving up that many points much less a pro team. I also want to point out that this game IS A WIN for Dallas. They do not care about the 21.5…trust me. What they care about is getting the win, staying healthy, and being ready for their week four matchup against the New Orleans Saints, that even without Drew Brees will be a tough team to beat in the Superdome in New Orleans. Dallas WILL be looking ahead; I promise you that.

Again, I am not even going to get into X’s and O’s or Dak Prescott and whoever the Dolphins quarterback is this week. This game, I am basing on pure historical betting numbers and patterns. Let me give you some numbers here that will make my case for the Dolphins to cover. Of the five largest points spreads in NFL history ranging from 22 points to 27 points, there were seven games between this range…ONLY ONCE did the favorite cover the spread. That one cover, you ask? It was the Pittsburgh Steelers covering a 27 point spread against no other than Steve Spurrier and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in their inaugural season. Pittsburgh won the game 42-0…but that Tampa team was one of the worst EVER. This Dolphins team is terrible, but I still think they keep this one within three touchdowns come Sunday.

Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: TAKE THE MIAMI DOLPHINS PLUS THE 21.5 AGAINST THE DALLAS COWBOYS ON SUNDAY