Barking Dog: 49ers at Seahawks Pick & Predictions

The San Francisco 49ers come to Lumen Field for a Thanksgiving Day NFC West showdown with the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday. The Niners have now won two in a row, including Sunday’s 27-14 win over the Buccaneers, helping put that three-game slide behind them. They get a critical division game against the Seahawks, who continue to struggle in their own division, dropping their second to the Rams on Sunday, 17-16. Who can get it done on Thanksgiving in Seattle?

Seahawks in Trouble?

A win in this game would serve multiple purposes. It would give the Seahawks some leverage in their division, as losing two to the Rams is a bad pill to swallow standings-wise. It would get them back into first place with them holding the head-to-head edge over San Fran, and would give them a needed gust of wind into their sails. After winning five of six, Seattle has cooled down with losses to the Ravens and the Rams, sandwiching a narrow win over Washington. Their defense wasn’t so much the issue last week, but to fail twice like that against the Rams’ defense is a strange thing for this offense.

The Seahawks have seen a dip in their running-game, as the big plays from Kenneth Walker, II. have diminished in recent weeks and after leaving the game early last Saturday, we will see if he can return on the short week. Geno Smith left the game on Sunday, only to return, but we haven’t exactly been seeing him in top form, either, and will need to assess his status entering this spot. DK Metcalf wasn’t bad on Sunday, but both he and Tyler Lockett have been subdued in recent weeks. Taking on this San Francisco defense might not what the doctor ordered for a suffering offense.

Niners Back on Track?

The bye week seemed to refocus the Niners, get them healthier, and get them closer to where they were. Lopsided wins over the Jaguars and Bucs have served to restore order. Brock Purdy has looked better after suffering for a few weeks and they’re now intact. We have seen big games from all their offensive stars this season, with Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Christian McCaffrey all doing damage. And after seeing their defense go off-course for several weeks, they are back on track, having given up just a combined 17 points in their last two games.

These last few weeks, however, do not totally camouflage the inadequacies they have shown and the depths they can hit. Things were going great when the wheels came off before and sure, there were personnel issues that precipitated that, namely the loss of Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams. With those guys back, there’s less reason for things to go off-script, but this is a tough divisional road-spot where things can often times be trickier than they appear.

Tough Spot for the Seahawks?

I’d say a Seattle backer has some reasons for optimism on Thanksgiving, not the least of which being this coming at home, where the Seahawks team seems to play a notch better on both sides of the ball. It being Thanksgiving on a short week maybe makes that edge a tiny bit more important. The Seattle defense isn’t great, but can be good on a given day. And while Seattle as a team is probably too tied to how well Geno Smith plays, he has put together some big games in this stadium.

The defensive matchup, however, isn’t great for Geno and Company. There have been some prime pouncing opportunities for this offense in recent weeks and it just didn’t happen for them like it was at the beginning of the season. Maybe Seattle is one of those hard-to-predict kind of teams and will therefore explode in a spot that seems a lot of tougher. Still, last season they scored 20 points total in two games against these 49ers, both of them being defeats. Homefield is nice, as is the notion that this is a great get-right spot for a Seattle team that has started waning a bit. This offense should have some urgency this week. But it’s in a difficult spot to be sure.

Unfortunately, the prognosis doesn’t improve when the scrutiny goes to the other side of the ball for the Seahawks. This is a two-faced defense if there ever was one. While that higher gear is always a factor, especially at home, facing an intact SF offense is not a great matchup for any defense that is facing questions. Maybe giving up 17 to the Rams even if not playing very clutch, is a sign that they’re getting back on track after a few rough outings. But with their own offense facing a tough matchup, what is going to be asked of this group on Thanksgiving? The Seattle “D” is going to need to see a lot of things go their way, with some turnovers in the mix and other big plays or the offense is going to need to come alive in a big way.

Take the Home Dog

I think Seattle in this current incarnation is a better team in this kind of role than the covers they’ve been asked to make in recent weeks as a favorite. If playing them in a speculative spot, being at home is a good thing, as is being in a bit of a fix, a situation in which we see this team generally respond well. It’s just that in this division on the short week and on this particular day, it’s never as easy as it looks. Furthermore, if you look at the Niners last 10 visits to Seattle, they’d have gone 1-9 ATS against a 7-point spread! I’ll take the Seahawks in this one. 

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Seattle Seahawks plus 7 points.