Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills: Divisional Playoff ATS Prediction

Baltimore Ravens (13-5 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (14-4 SU, 11-7 ATS)
AFC Divisional Playoffs
Date/Time: Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 6:30PM EST
Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
TV: CBS/Paramount

The Baltimore Ravens take on the Buffalo Bills in an AFC Divisional Playoff game on Sunday, the winner going to the AFC Championship Game. While the Chiefs are going to be the top-dog in the conference and league until shown otherwise, one gets the feeling that if someone is going to upset the apple-cart, it could come from this game. Both handled business cleanly on wild-card weekend to land in this spot ready to go. The Ravens scored a routine 28-14 win over Pittsburgh on Saturday, while the Bills hammered the Broncos, 31-17, on Sunday, setting up this battle of dangerous longtime AFC contenders in this high-stakes spot.

Questions

While Lamar Jackson was efficient aerially on Saturday with two TD throws on 16-for-21 completions, the absence of top receiver Zay Flowers affected the offense and their approach. Between the running of Jackson and Derrick Henry, who combined for 267 yards against Pittsburgh, they have options if the aerial part of their game isn’t thriving. Nevertheless, as the stakes and level of difficulty increases, being at close to full power would really come in handy. As of now, his status is still up in the air.

Is the Buffalo defense as good as it has looked recently? Towards the end of the season, there were times when it looked like the wheels were going to come off. And while they got a little healthier and maybe addressed some areas of concern, their regular season ended with two games against the Patriots and one against a sideways Jets team. And while they deserve credit for beating Denver so conclusively and allowing nothing after an early Broncos TD, this is a spot where the Buffalo defense will really be tested. And not that it counts for a lot now, perhaps, but a week 4 win for Baltimore, 35-10, against this Buffalo team where they did a lot of the things they did last week by running the ball down their opponent’s throats, looms as a damning result for the Bills.

What Buffalo Needs to Do

One might recall their first game this season when it was almost instantaneous, when Derrick Henry started running them over and taking over the game. Henry gets better as the season carries on, and is now a real contender; these are the moments he savors, and Buffalo absolutely needs to keep his production in hand. If you look up and see all this production coming out of the Baltimore backfield, with Henry peeling off big runs, Jackson doing the same, and RB Justice Hill making big catches, it’s going to be a long day for Buffalo.

It’s not even so much a matter that Buffalo has taken a quasi-Kansas City approach where there are no real superstars outside of the quarterback. Other than a really big game from maybe RB James Cook, the sources for monster production seem limited. This seems to be a spot where Buffalo needs to turn loose Josh Allen and see if he can’t take over this game and impose his will. Not to low-rate the Bills and what they’ve accomplished this season, but it’s not easy to find aspects of their game that they can wield on the Ravens where one can expect great results. One could say Baltimore has a better defense and running game, and for as good as Buffalo has been all season on offense, this is one team where they might not really have an overall edge. I think this is a spot where the recipe might be as much Josh Allen as they can muster, and I just hope he outshines Jackson enough to carry the Bills to a win.

Points to Consider

Buffalo came into this postseason only 2-2 against teams that went to the playoffs, allowing an average of 30 points in those games. Conversely, Baltimore was 7-3 against teams this season that ended up in the postseason, not including last week’s win over the Steelers. They’ve been in better company and have better results in those contests, while Buffalo generally has seen their defense falter against better opposition. And it’s against heavy rushing attacks where a lot of their problems have taken place, and this matchup serves as the worst example of that for the Bills.

Again, the results of a week four game have little bearing. But has anything happened to make one think Derrick Henry can’t do damage here after putting up almost 200 yards last time? While the Bills have been a team that can come on strong late in a game, they better focus on the earlier stages. The last time around, this one was over almost before it started. And if you’re looking to play catch-up, Baltimore is the last team to play that game with, as they are expert frontrunners, able to deaden a game with their “D” and the options they have on the ground with Henry leading the way.

Lay the Point

To be on the minus side of the point spread on the road against this Bills team is not a comfortable feeling, especially with there looking to be some weather involved. And there were times this season when you had the sense that when pushed back in a corner in a high-stakes spot, this might be the season where Allen really goes off and does something special. I just think the Ravens have done enough to hang onto their number-two spot in the conference, as they hope to get another shot at the peak the following week. I like the Ravens in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Baltimore Ravens minus one point.