Note: If you’re
looking for the 2013 Week 15 game between Wash/ATL, please go here: Washington
Redskins vs. Atlanta Falcons Pick.
Atlanta Falcons(4-0SU,3-1ATS) vsWashington Redskins(2-2SU,2-2ATS)
NFL Week5
Date/Time:October7th, 1:00PM EST
Where:FedEx Field,Landover, Maryland
TV:Fox
byJeffHochman,Pro Handicapper, JHSportsline.com
Point Spread: ATL-3/WASH +3
Over/Under Total:50
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The undefeated Atlanta Falcons take to the road when they face theRG3 led Washington Redskins. The Falcons latest win was a nifty 30-28 come-from behind win as 7-point home favorites. Trailing 28-27, the Falcons took over from their own 1-yard line with 59 seconds remaining. On the first play, Roddy White hauled in a 59-yard pass. A defensive pass interference penalty put the ball at the Carolina 35. Matt Ryan completed two passes before Bryant kicked the game-winning field goal. Matt Ryan completed 25-of-40 passes for 369 yards, three touchdowns and an interception for the Falcons, who are off to their first 4-0 start since 2004. It was acompleteteam effort. Roddy White caught eight passes for 169 yards and two touchdowns. Michael Turner carried the ball 13 times for 103 yards and hauled in three passes for 68 yardswith a score. The Redskins escaped Tampa with a 24-22 win over theBucson a late 41-yardFGby BillyCundiff.Cundiffhad missed two field goals earlier in the game but came up big when it mattered most.
When I watch the Falcons this year one thing is very clear. They have the best offensive line in football and if you don’t thinkO’linesare important just ask Jerry Jones or any Cowboys fan. If Dallas had Atlanta’s offensive line they would be 4-0 for sure. But, as good as Atlanta has been their offense is ranked No. 15 averaging 365.2 yards per game. Atlanta is just 2-2 ITS (in the stats) this season. The Redskins will bring in the 3rd ranked offense, averaging 421.8 yards per game. The big difference between these teams is on defense. Atlanta’s stop unit is allowing 353.2 yards per game (#15) while the Redskins are allowing 415.2 yards per game (29th). The Falcons have the 3rd best Special Teams while the Redskins are holding their own coming in at No. 12.
QUIT WASTING MONEY! STOP LAYING -110
ODDS! START WAGERING AT -105 AT 5DIMES!
While the Falcons’ offense gets most of the headlines with its 31.0 points
per game (best in the NFL) first-year defensive coordinator Mike Nolan’s
unit has been outstanding, allowing 19.0 points per game and just207.0
passing yards per contest. Atlanta has also scored a league-high 43 points 5
off takeaways. Increasing that total could be a challenge the way Griffin
has played in his first four careerNFL games. The 2011 Heisman Trophy winner
is fourth in the NFL with a 103.2 passer rating and has thrown just one
interception in 124 attempts, guiding the Redskins to 30.8 point per contest.
Washington is tied with Atlanta and Houston for the fewest turnovers with
justtwo.
I think Matt Ryan will be able totorchthe injury-riddled Redskins’ secondary.JulioJones hand is still not 100%, but Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez could have a big day. The Redskins have beenstout against the run only allowing 89 yards per game, so don’t look for Michael Turner to have a big day. The Falcons have been awful against the run allowing 146.3 yards per game. The Redskins run offense is ranked tops in the league (175.5), so look for the Redskins to run early and often using all availablepersonnel. If they have success that will set up some nice play-action passing for Robert Griffin III.
The last regular season meeting was back in 2009, when the Falcons won 31-17 as 9-point home chalk. Matt Ryan struggled in that game, but it was Michael Turner who ran for 166 yards and two touchdowns. Howwill losing linebackerBrianOrakpoaffect the Redskins defense goingforward. They did a good job against Doug Martin and theBucsbut time will tell.
If you played the Atalanta Falcons every time they have been favorites you have done quite well. That’sbecauseAtlanta is 17-9 ATS wheninstalledas a favorite of any kind over the last three seasons. Atlanta is 19-26 SU vs. the NFC East since 1993. The Redskins are 2-7 SU and 2-4 ATS as home dogs of 3 points or less since 2009.
Jeff’s Pick to Cover the Spread:Washington Redskins +3 & Over 50
I will lean to the home dog in a high-scoring game. The Falcons are just 2-2 in the stats and have struggled on the road against the NFC East. I think both teams will be able to move the ball and there should be plenty of scoring chances. I would expect a defensive or special teams TD as well.
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