Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Week 7 Pick

Atlanta Falcons (3-3 SU, 1-5 ATS) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS)

Week 7 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, October 22, 2023, at 1:00 PM (EST)

Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

TV: FOX

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: ATL +2.5/TB -2.5 (Make either team a huge underdog with a fat 19 point NFL teaser found only at Wagerweb Sportsbook!)

Moneyline: Dirty Birds +120/Bucs -140

Total: 38

On Sunday, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will host the Atlanta Falcons for a fight for supremacy in the division. Obviously, arguments could be made that the NFC South is easily the weakest division in football. Along with the winless Carolina Panthers, the entire division is just 6-11 SU outside of division competition. However, the Falcons, Saints, and Buccaneers are all essentially standing with the same record, which means these divisional matchups will be very important throughout the remainder of the season. As things currently stand, the Buccaneers are listed as mere 2.5-point favorites as they attempt to bounce back from a disappointing 20-6 loss to the Detroit Lions.

Game Analysis

In last week’s loss, the Buccaneers produced just 251 yards of total offense. The Bucs running game produced just 46 yards on the ground which has been a theme throughout the season. Meanwhile, QB Baker Mayfield had a disappointing outing by hitting just 19 of 37 passes for 206 yards and an interception. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, this may be a year where they ride or die on the arm of Baker Mayfield. The running game has been a complete disaster and has shown no signs of improvement. As a result, Tampa Bay’s week-to-week performance may revolve around the erratic play of Mayfield and this Bucs’ passing attack.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Analysis

While we know that Tampa Bay’s offense can be inconsistent from week to week, the same can be said for the visiting Atlanta Falcons. After starting the year with two wins, the Falcons have lost 3 out of their last 4 games. Most recently, the Falcons succumbed to the Washington Commanders. In last week’s loss to Washington, the Commanders were able to get out to an early lead and the Falcons rushing attack was abandoned. The result was a 3-interception performance from QB Desmond Ridder and a completely inefficient performance from the offense.

In many ways, last week’s loss to Washington was a perfect example of the struggles for the Falcons offense. The Falcons can have success when they are able to rely on the running game behind Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. However, in passing situations, Ridder has been nothing less than a liability despite having some solid talents in WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts. For this week’s match-up against the Buccaneers, I don’t believe those tendencies match up favorably against a Tampa Bay defense that has been really good against the run. In fact, Tampa Bay’s defense has allowed just 83 yards per game on the ground, which is among the best in the NFL. If the Buccaneers can limit this Falcons’ rushing attack, I don’t see many paths to victory for this Atlanta offense.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Trends

• Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in the last 5 games.
• Atlanta has hit the “under” in 5 of the last 6 games.
• Atlanta has hit the “under” in each of the last 5 games on the road.
• Atlanta is just 2-4 ATS in the last 6 games against NFC opponents.
• Tampa Bay is 5-14-1 ATS in the last 20 games.
• Tampa Bay has hit the “under” in 5 of the last 6 games.
• Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in the last 6 games against Atlanta.
• Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS in the last 7 games at home.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Prediction

From a match-up perspective, I believe the Buccaneers hold the edge on both sides of the football. I never like betting on Baker Mayfield, but the Buccaneers are simply the better team. I would not be surprised to see more scoring this week which yields a “lean” to the over. However, I believe laying the points is the best option here.

Jay’s Pick: Take Tampa Bay -2.5