Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears Betting Pick

Atlanta Falcons (7-8 SU, 5-10 ATS) vs. Chicago Bears (6-9 SU, 7-7-1 ATS)
NFL Football Week 17
Date/Time: Sunday December 31st, 2023. 1:00PM (EST)
Where: Soldier Field Chicago, IL
TV: CBS<

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: ATL +2.5/CHI -2.5
Moneyline: ATL +140/CHI -160
Total: 38

Last week, the Atlanta Falcons snapped a two-game losing streak in a big way with a 29-10 victory over the Indianapolis Colts. It was the first time in nearly a month that the Falcons put together a complete effort on both sides of the football. However, the strong performance may have come a little too late. Even with last week’s win over the Colts, the Falcons remained one game behind the Buccaneers in the NFC South race. Since the Buccaneers own the tie-breaker over Atlanta, the Falcons would need to win out, and the Bucs would need to lose out in order for the Falcons to capture the division.

While Atlanta’s division chances are nearly gone, Head Coach Arthur Smith could be playing for his job over the next two weeks. In many ways, the Falcons have had so many chances and have failed to produce a quality product this season. If the Falcons end the season in disappointing fashion, many speculate that Smith could be the next coach to get fired. Despite the motivation factor, the Falcons are currently listed as 2.5-point underdogs for this weekend’s trip to Soldier Field, and that is because the Chicago Bears have been trending in the right direction in recent weeks with victories in three of the last four games. As a result, the Bears will be the slight favorites for this weekend’s clash with Atlanta.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears Betting Analysis

Before we move into the specifics of the match-up breakdown, I need to point out that the Falcons have traditionally been “bad” under Arthur Smith on the road. In fact, the Falcons have won just two of their last 13 games on the road, and that has to be considered in the grand scheme of things this weekend. On top of the road-split narrative, I also believe the match-up favors Chicago in a big way. Despite a disappointing season from rookie RB Bijan Robinson, the Falcons have still promoted a run-heavy offense with Robinson and teammate RB Tyler Allgeier. When the rushing attack has failed, Atlanta has struggled because of their ineptness at the quarterback position.

While QB Taylor Heinicke posted a decent stat line last week in replace of Desmond Ridder, Heinicke has been inefficient throughout his career. I believe that is concerning because Atlanta’s run-heavy offense will face a steep challenge on the ground. The Bears currently have the best run defense in the NFL, which is yielding just 80 yards per game. If Chicago remains strong against the run, they could force Atlanta into uncomfortable passing situations with Heinicke at the helm. Meanwhile, on the opposing side of the football, QB Justin Fields, WR DJ Moore, and the Bears running tandem of Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson should have great opportunities against a mediocre Falcons’ defense. Simply put, the Bears appear to have the edge on both sides of the football in this particular match-up!

Falcons vs.  Bears Betting Trends

• The Falcons are 4-10 ATS in the last 14 games.
• The Falcons have hit the “under” in four of the last five games.
• The Falcons are 2-11 SU in the last 13 games on the road.
• The Lions have hit the “over” in four of the last five games on the road.
• The Falcons have hit the “under” in eight of the last nine games in December.
• The Bears are 4-1 ATS in the last five games.
• The Bears have hit the “under” in six of the last eight games.
• The Bears are 6-14 SU in the last 20 games.
• The Bears are 4-1 ATS in the last five games against Atlanta.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears Betting Prediction

It may sound like a broken record, but I have little faith in this Falcons offense. Last week’s big win over Indianapolis is not changing that outlook because, in reality, it appeared the Colts were completely off in that game as opposed to showing significant improvement. I’m expecting the Falcons’ passing struggles to show in this match-up because of the stout Chicago run defense. Once that happens, don’t be surprised if the Bears force a few turnovers and make enough plays on offense to secure an easy victory!

Jay’s Pick: Take Chicago -2.5