Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers Free Pick | Week 6

Atlanta Falcons (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) vs. Carolina Panthers (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS)
NFL Football Week 6
Date/Time: Sunday, October 13th, 2024, 4:25PM (EST)
Where: Bank of America Stadium Charlotte, NC.
TV: FOX

Betting Odds

Point Spread: ATL -6/CAR +6
Moneyline: ATL -270/CAR +220
Total: 47.5

Last week, QB Kirk Cousins proved to everyone why the Falcons shelled out 180 million to bring him to Atlanta during the offseason. On a primetime Thursday night stage in a game against NFC South rival Tampa Bay, Cousins delivered one of the best performances of his career by throwing for 509 yards with four touchdowns to lead the Falcons to a 36-30 thrilling overtime victory. The win put the Falcons in 1st place in the NFC South and delivered the breakout performance Atlanta fans have been waiting for on the offensive side of the football.

On the heels of last week’s breakout performance, the Falcons will take to the road this Sunday for another NFC South showdown with the 1-4 (SU) Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers are licking their chops following a 36-10 thrashing at the hands of the Chicago Bears. The Panthers struggled heavily at the start of the season on offense behind former #1 pick QB Bryce Young, who started the season by tossing three interceptions without a single touchdown in the first two games.

Backup QB Andy Dalton appeared to provide answers to the offense’s struggles in week 3 with a victory over the Raiders in a masterful 319-yard passing performance with three touchdowns. However, Dalton has simmered in the two weeks since the Panthers only victory and was downright bad in last week’s loss to the Bears hitting just 18 of 28 passing for 136 yards with a pick. Needless to say, the Panthers find themselves back in the middle of offensive concerns going into Sunday’s homestand against the Atlanta Falcons.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers Betting Analysis

Despite the fact Bryce Young came off the bench late in last week’s 36-10 loss to the Bears, QB Andy Dalton will continue to get the start, according to Panthers Head Coach Dave Canales. Personally, I agree with Canales’ decision because Dalton has been far better than Young behind center despite his career tendency to be very inconsistent. With that said, the Panthers offense has struggled significantly against teams that produce strong pass rushes regardless of who has been under center. The Carolina offensive line has been awful in pass protection, but there are some reasons to be hopeful for this Sunday’s matchup against Atlanta because the Falcons own the 3rd worst pass-rush grade in the NFL, according to PFF.

Needless to say, this should be a much better situation for QB Andy Dalton to have another solid game. After all, the Falcons defense made QB Baker Mayfield look like an MVP candidate last week. Either way, I believe the Panthers are going to have to make some things happen with WR Diontae Johnson and RB Chuba Hubbard who have been the biggest playmakers at the skill positions. The reason I state that fact is because the Falcons’ offense appears to be finding their identity. As mentioned earlier, Cousins had one of the best performances of his career last Thursday, and the offense is starting to treat WR Drake London like the alpha WR he is capable of being. With the continued threat on the ground behind RB Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, the Falcons are a legitimate top-tier offense that will have a favorable matchup again this Sunday against Carolina!

Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers Betting Trends

• The Falcons are 2-5 ATS in the last seven games.
• The Falcons are 3-13 SU in the last 16 games on the road.
• The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in the last five games against NFC South opponents.
• The Falcons are 12-5 SU in the last 17 games against Carolina.
• The Panthers are 1-6 ATS in the last seven games.
• The Panthers are 1-7 SU in the last eight games.
• The Panthers have hit the “over” in 4 of the last five games.
• The Panthers are 4-2 ATS in the last six games against Atlanta.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers Betting Prediction

I have a sneaky feeling that the Panthers will bounce back with a much better performance this week, and that matchup seems to point to that narrative as well. However, I am unwilling to trust Carolina for a full 60 minutes of play. Instead, I am going to bank on the Falcons offense staying hot and helping push the scoring over the total mark that currently sits at 47.5. Both offenses have ideal matchups, and I believe the “over” is a strong play!

Jay’s Pick: Take the over 47.5!